I’m man enough to admit I love Taylor Swift’s music, but I’m jumping right into the NFL Wild Card Weekend. Can’t have the Fellas thinking I’ve gone completely soft. You’ll have to scroll down for the Mastermind section of this if you’re interested in me trying to relate Week to Week Notes with Taylor Swift.
NFL Wild Card Round ‘23
Warped Logic - Wild Card Round ‘23
Off Peak Saturday
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy is a perfect 5-0 as a starting QB. You literally can’t do any better than that. While of course, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have elevated their games, it is important to keep in mind that Purdy didn’t have the versatile Deebo Samuel down the stretch. Deebo Samuel has an ankle/knee but is set to be back to his usual workload. On the defensive side of things for San Francisco, Nick Bosa finished the ‘22 Regular Season in first place in sacks (18.5) and pressures (73). I think that is NOTEworthy. For Seattle, Geno “they wrote me off but I ain’t write back though” Smith earned PFF’s Comeback Player of the Year. Smith was the only QB in the NFL to take 100% of his team’s snaps this year. (Source: @NFLonFOX) This is quite impressive considering going into the season he and Drew Lock were competing for the starting role. On defense, the Seahawks’ best player all season was their 5th-round CB, Tariq Woolen, who became the first player since 2016 (Marcus Peters) with 15 passes defended, 6 INTs, and 3 fumble recoveries in a single season. (Source: @SamiOnTap)
Prediction: 21-10 SF (-9.5 SF & Under 42)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
A Saturday Night matchup between my Chargers fan insider and Jaguars fan insider. Hopefully, they won’t mind that I riff about how they became fans of their teams. Both of them were considered fair-weather Giants fans growing up before they found their teams. The Chargers fan was in the 7th grade playing Madden, we made him hit random when he was selecting teams and whoever it landed on 3 times first he had to become a fan of. Well, they landed on the San Diego Chargers. I used to give him lip about not being a real fan of the Bolts, but at this point, it has been long enough. I think he might be a bigger fan than any one of them in LA. As for the Jaguars’ fan insider, he took a chance and moved to a city alone right out of college. Before the move, he wasn’t all that into football, now he’s a season ticket holder and you might see him cannonballing into the Jaguars’ stadium fan pool after touchdowns. I’m proud to call both of these men my friends and looking forward to a good game. Way back in Week 3, ‘22, these two teams matched up against each other, and the winner’s QB I was going to call Sunshine the rest of the season. Trevor “Sunshine” Lawrence and the Jags thrashed a depleted Chargers squad 38-10. This go-around though, the Chargers seem a bit more healthy for a change.
Prediction: 28-24 LAC (-2.5 LAC & Over 47.5)
Standard Sunday
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
My Dolphins fan insider listens to heavy metal for meditation, no silence (1:48). I’m not kidding, if you think I’m a Litzsomaniac you should hear the 90s grunge that comes out of his room while we’re working remotely. The Dolphins WR combo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 3,022 receiving yards - only the 4th pair to ever reach that milestone. The others include Herman Moore & Brett Perriman (3,174 in 1995), Torry Holt & Issac Bruce (3,106 in ‘00), and Demaryius Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders (3,023 in ‘14). As for the Bills WR Stefon Diggs, FanDuel Sportsbook has him as the favorite to have the most receiving yards in the NFL Playoffs. To be honest, I’ll root for Skylar Thompson and the Phins to squeak by Josh Allen and the Bills, but in terms of offering up a pick - it has to be Buffalo.
Prediction: 31-16 BUF (-13.5 BUF & Over 43.5)
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Alright as a jealous Jets fan, I have to give the Giants some credit for making it this far. Rather than hating on a NY team that scraped and clawed its way into the playoffs, I’ll admit what Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen have done in 1 year is commendable. They shifted the culture in the locker room from what seemed like a ton of “me” guys in the past to hard-working types. WR Isiah Hodgins, for instance, wasn’t sure if he was going to be in the league this past summer when he was sleeping on a mattress on the floor of a spare bedroom of a rental home (Source: @DailyNews). He finished the ‘22 Regular Season scoring 4 TDs in the Giants’ last 5 games. On to Minnesota eh, well Justin Jefferson’s 22 contested catches this season led the NFL (Source: @PFF_Fantasy) While Jefferson, Adam Thielen, TJ Hockenson, and Dalvin Cook should fear GMen fans, I don’t think Kirk Cousins should.
Prediction: 27-23 NYG (+3 NYG & Over 48)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens likely being without QB Lamar Jackson, who has a knee, is a real buzz-kill to a nice AFC North matchup. I understand from Jackson’s perspective, the team couldn’t agree to terms with an extension with the former MVP and he isn’t willingly going to go out there to further injure his knee if he is not 100% healthy. The Ravens had no issue giving LB Roquon Smith a contract extension worth 5 years and $100 million, so my guess is Jackson must really not be thrilled with the front office. For the Bengals, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the only Bengal duo other than Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh to each 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. (Source: @Bengals) I just have a really hard time believing that anyone on the Ravens besides Lamar Jackson has a remote shot at defeating Joe Burrow in Cincinnati.
Prediction: 26-13 CIN (-9.5 CIN & Over 40.5)
Moody Monday
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Dallas fan insiders are hoping the Cowboys can make it another week before the team starts hitting the links. The Cowboys had a very good season, but they were in the shadows of the Philadelphia Eagles. Now that it is the playoffs, the regular season record doesn’t matter. Cowboys Edge Micah Parsons feels slighted by the NFL for not picking him on the All-Pro team. As for the Buccaneers, they have “Tom Brady in the NFL Playoffs” going for them. Enough said, but I’ll still ride with the Cowboys.
Prediction: 30-20 DAL (-2.5 DAL & Over 45.5)
His Or Her Words, Not Mine
If you’re a reader and ever have an opinion on your team out there, please always feel free to shoot a text or DM @You_The_Reader. It only helps me riff with the sports and it’s awesome because I’m not sure I really need “inside sources” when I have men and women who know sports and pop culture. I’d prefer for Week to Week Notes to be more conversational like the talk you’d hear at a bar or what you would talk about with friends and family. For instance, a Yankee insider from Texas Arizona commented on a Pints&Pen&Paper post when I was at Broadstone talking to an amazing Sox fan next to me. He said “the Sox/Yankee rivalry is going to continue to die down. Ever since the Wild Card game in Fenway in ‘21, there’s no juice.” I agreed, the Sox just no longer have the same expectations to win as before, Boston is now more of a Celtics and Patriots. The Sox may be really great once every 4 or 5 years, but nobody talks about how the other years they’re stuck in the basement. I’m very sorry about that @SoxFans.
NY Jets Offseason Flight Plan
-From a village idiot writing about sports and Jets Fan Insiders
Hot take of the day (1/11 ‘23):
“If AVT and Breece don’t get hurt, the Jets go 10-7 (at a minimum) at the same level Zach was playing at. We go to playoffs with our 2nd year QB who is “making progress”. We possibly steal a game and everything going into the offseason is good. They got hurt - so we need a new QB.”
I agreed with this. Honestly once AVT and Breece went down I didn’t expect much for the rest of the season. I’m just glad Sauce and Garrett Wilson shined through a rough finish.
Jets OC Mike LaFleur was fired this week, which brought the following reaction…
^“This is why I don’t like the move.”
The Jets now don’t have much leverage with who their next potential hire may be unless…
“Maybe they already know who’s coming. Whoever it is will want a lot of money and some guarantees.”
Agreed, the best-case scenario is that hopefully Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas have an unlimited amount of funds from Woody Johnson. Unlike the NFL rosters, there is no salary cap for coaching and front-office personnel so that is where ownership that is willing to spend can really give a team an advantage.
Hot take of the day (1/12 ‘23):
Other than Breece Hall, AVT, and Garrett Wilson (all 1st round talents) - I think you can argue every other offensive player regressed over the past 2 years. Zach, Mims, Berrios, Davis, both TEs, Fant, Tomlinson, Michael Carter, the running back we traded for who played like 2 games (James Robinson haha), and probably some more. We didn’t score a TD in three games and scored 6 points in the last one. Mike LaFleur had to go and I’m excited that maybe the dude that comes in helps and we see a jump in the offense like we did from the defense.
On the bright side, can most of these talented players play any worse? Might see some regression from the defense which was indisputably Top 5, but if they can get the offense playing at league average…
“True. Saleh and Woody both made comments today about being “aggressive” at QB. I don’t know what that means but kinda gets me excited.”
My plan would be to show Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco the door. Re-sign Mike White. See if you can get Sam Darnold on a 1-year prove-it deal for cheap and then take a 2nd or 3rd round flier on one of these QBs we find in one of these Scout That Never Was sections. @YouTheReader always feel free to send over a mock draft.
“Yes. I think this is good for Saleh too. Probably very hard to hold Mike LaFleur accountable and he had to see things weren’t working. As always QB is what this all hinges on.”
Agreed. @JetsFanInsiders always feel free to sound off your thoughts, I put my phone on Do Not Disturb when drinking Guinness and talking to people or if I’m writing/typing but I’m always reading afterward. Thanks as always!
Sorry @TaylorNation For Makin’ Ya Scroll ;)
Thanks for reading! I’ve been HUMming of late. Already have something written up for when I’m hungover tomorrow. If you’re new to Week to Week Notes, Hum along with me.