Aaron Judge 62
To Yankee fans: He did it. He really did it. Was there ever a doubt in my mind? Absolutely not, the Judge Watch was started back in June. Do you think the Judge’s and Maris’ will exchange Christmas cards this year or do they just despise each other at this point?
To the opposition: You want the truth? In a league where a feeble commissioner propagandizes slogans such as, “Let the kids play.” At a time when one of the “kids” gets busted for “steroids on a bad haircut.” In an era where grown-ass men are incentivized by followers and sponsors to hit the “*whatever the new dance on TikTok some child made.” You want Aaron Judge to retire as a Yankee. It’s the truth you can’t handle to hear because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you know it feels right that the only pinstripes in sports that matter have a clean-shaven leader who speaks softly and carries a big stick, rather than bat-flip it. While Twitter can make the cut-in jokes and people can poke fun at a record where the player did things the right way, I’d rather celebrate this century’s roaring 20s version of Babe Ruth.
I’d like to thank the Good Lord for making Aaron Judge a Yankee. A season for the ages, now go out and win the whole fookin’ thing…
MLB Playoff Preview
The 2022 MLB Playoffs pitches-off today at 12:07 PM ET with the MLB’s inaugural Wild Card Round (don’t worry that part of the bracket is imaged below) with 8 teams playing over the weekend in a best-of-3 series. The top 2 teams in each league await the wild card winners in the Divisional Round, which starts this coming Tuesday.
American League Playoff Preview
1. Houston Astros (106-56)
Hitting: Right-fielder Kyle Tucker hit his second straight 30 homer season. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are still a thorn in the opposition’s sides at the keystone and hot corner. Yordan Alvarez has fully established himself as a premiere slugger in Texas, hitting a career-high 37 home runs.
Pitching: The Astros rode on the backs of their starting pitching. Their 94 quality starts (starter pitches at least 6 innings and allows 3 or fewer runs) led all of baseball and were the most in an MLB season since Houston had 105 in 2018. Southpaw Framber Valdez had a record 25 quality starts in a row. Kate Upton’s husband is still their ace but they may have also cloned him to be 24 years old again with Hunter. Expect Brown to come out of the pen for high-leverage multi-inning outings.
Murmurs: Are we sure Houston hasn’t hacked their opponent’s PitchComs yet?
2. New York Yankees (99-63)
Hitting: Who starts at third - Donaldson or Lemahieu? I’d prefer the latter. Can Matt Carpenter be half the spark he was this summer off the bench? If any two of these players can get hot at the right time (Stanton, Torres, Rizzo, Lemahieu/Donaldson) what would stop them from scoring over 6 runs a game?
Pitching: Buck stops with Gerrit Cole in this rotation. The Yankees paid Gerrit Cole to be a big-game money starter. His results have been a mixed bag so far. His American League-high 33 homers allowed isn’t a huge deal as long as he’s not nibbling around the plate. Cole needs to trust his stuff and stay out of his own head. The bullpen is also going to be something else to monitor. Bummer that it looks like Marinaccio will miss the Division Series, the Yankees do have a wide assortment of bullpen arms and styles. Hopefully, the Yankee brass has the stomach to leave Aroldis Chapman off the roster.
Murmurs: When the TV cuts to Aaron Boone, can he not look like a nervous Meerkat poking out of a dugout hole?
3. Cleveland Indians (92-72)
Hitting: While I know this is a hitting section, I want to start by saying that Cleveland was ranked 3 in the MLB in team defensive runs saved (saving 79). The Guardians used a ton of analytics to accomplish this feat (of knowing how and when to shift, what pitch to throw, etc). Offensively, Jose Ramirez is the only player on their roster to hit over 20 homers this year. What Cleveland lacks in pop, they try to make up for it with speed. They swiped 119 bases this year, good for 3rd in the MLB.
Pitching: Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill when right can an elite top of the rotation that could go toe to toe with anybody. Emmanuel Clase is another name to keep in mind as a stud reliever.
Murmurs: Honest mistake that I didn’t call them the Guardians. Not trying to ruffle feathers but oh well, too late to fix it and they don’t have any GIFs as the Guardians anyway.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (92-70)
Hitting: The Jays lineup hit the 200 homer mark for the 9th time since 2015 (the only year they didn’t was the 2020 60 game season). Vlad Guerrero Sr. through his age 23 season was a .313 hitter with .359 onbase and 50 career homers. Vlad Guerro Jr. has already lapped his dad in home runs with 104 and has hit .284 with a .359 onbase at 23 years old.
Pitching: Alek Manoah was quoted ahead of his game 1 start for stating, “Pressure is something you put in your tires.” Good one, maybe keep it in your back pocket. Manoah finished in 3rd in the AL in starting pitching ERA with a 2.24.
Murmurs: Are we sure Drake is even rooting for the Jays?
5. Seattle Mariners (90-72)
Hitting: At 21 years old, the AL Rookie of the Year favorite, Julio Rodriguez, headlines the so-so Seattle offense with his 28 homers. Switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh also contributed 27 homers and Eugenio Suarez hit his second straight season with 31 dingers, the 5th time in 6 years (COVID short season) that he has hit at least 26 of them.
Pitching: Luis Catillo has pitched like a game 1 starter since going to Seattle at the trade deadline. Logan Gilbert (13-6 with a 3.20 ERA) having a breakout 2022 season provided a huge boost to the M’s rotation.
Murmurs: The last time the Mariners made the playoffs, Ichiro won Rookie of the Year as a 27-year-old and they went 116-46.
6. Tampa Bay Rays (86-76)
Hitting: The Rays struggled to score runs this season but their hope would be that a healthy Wander Franco adds a wrinkle that this team lacked for over half the season. At this point veterans like Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot, and Randy Arozarena are battled tested with playoff baseball experience.
Pitching: Shane McClanahan will anchor Tampa’s rotation with Tommy Shelby Tyler Glasnow looking like he’s back to his old self recovering from Tommy John right in the nick of time for the playoffs.
Murmurs: Having playoff games played at the Trop is an American travesty.
National League Playoff Preview
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (111-51)
Hitting: The Dodgers led the league in runs scored (847) and onbase % (.333). The trio of Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts has been as dynamic as expected. While nobody on this team may have had a historic MLB season at the plate, everybody with the exception of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, and Cody Bellinger played to the back of their baseball card.
Pitching: Not only did the Dodgers rank #1 in offense, but they finished with the 2nd team defensive runs saved with 86 as their pitching staff combined for a 2.80 ERA (good for #1 in the MLB). Became the 2nd team ever to lead the MLB in ERA and runs scored (2001, 116 win Mariners).
Murmurs: The last time the Dodgers won a World Series with their fans in the stands was 1988.
2. Atlanta Braves (101-61)
Hitting: Star 3rd baseman, Austin Riley, backed up his exceptional 2021 season with another well-rounded offensive season culminating with a career-high in home runs with 38. Their catcher position between Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras combined to hit 38 home runs as well with a .272 batting average and 105 RBIs which adds another element most lineups don’t have. Matt Olson also did his best replacing Freddie Freeman, as he went yard 34 times with 103 RBIs. Michael Harris II despite being in the minors for this season’s first two months led all NL rookie position players with a 4.8 Wins Above Replacement.
Pitching: Max Fried and Kyle Wright will almost certainly line up as the Braves game 1 and 2 starters. Rookie sensation, Spencer Strider, is also on track to make his postseason debut at some point this postseason after suffering an oblique injury. Their power pitching ended up 2nd in league strikeouts, trailing only the NY Mets.
Murmurs: The last time the Braves came in first place in the NL East the year after winning the World Series was in 1996. The 1995 and 2021 World Champion Braves won those World Series in 6 games. It would be a real thing of beauty if history were to repeat itself this year with a World Series matchup against the same team going through a similar decade + championship drought.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (93-69)
Hitting: Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado headline the Cards’ big bats in the lineup and offer exceptional defense on the corners of the diamond. Albert Pujols’ magical 24 homers at the age of 42 also deserve mentioning.
Pitching: Hard to comprehend how rare it is that either Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and/or Adam Wainwright have all shared a St. Louis clubhouse with at least one of each other going back to 2004. Yadier Molina has actually caught Adam Wainwright 325 times in the regular season, breaking the record of “batteries all time” set in 1975 previously by Mickey Lolich and Bill Freehan of the Tigers. Lefties Jose Quintana (2.01 ERA) and Jordan Montgomery (3.11 ERA) were major additions to their rotation added at the trade deadline.
Murmurs: Are we sure the Cardinals are actually trying to win a World Series this year? They have 3 retirement tours going on at once. Very cool.
4. New York Mets (101-61)
Hitting: Even with Starling Marte still not fully recovered from a finger, the Mets should still put him on the 26-man roster over Naquin and Ruf. Include McCann to backup Nido, Terrance Gore for some bench speed, and Francisco Alverez for some pop. Alverez crushed his first career home run, a 493-foot no-doubter. This will be Nimmo, McNeil, and Alonso’s first postseason experience so they may need Lindor (25 playoff games under his belt) to make an impact early to set a tone (a lifetime 5 for 16 off Yu Darvish).
Pitching: Whether they went with Mad Max or deGrom game 1, you have to expect them to win every time they’re on the mound. That’s really the only realistic road map the Mets have at a long road this fall and it was always this way. Despite both having a subpar last weekend in Atlanta (and deGrom the last month for his standards), ya gotta believe in their postseason track record.
Murmurs: How long before Steve Cohen has a $400 million payroll? By 2027? Not hating, would love for Hal Steinbrenner to wake up.
5. San Diego Padres (89-73)
Hitting: Juan Soto loves facing the Mets and loves the big stage. In 68 games against the Mets, Soto has hit .303 with a .420 onbase, 16 home runs, and 42 RBI (would average out to 38 homers and 100 RBIs if he played the Mets a full season). In 17 playoff games in 2019, Soto hit 5 homers and 14 RBI (would come out to 48 homers and 143 RBIs in 162). The other player the Mets can’t let kill them is Manny Machado who has hit a smooth .316 with a .419 onbase against the Mets but has struggled thus far in his career in the playoffs.
Pitching: Yu Darvish has a 5-0 lifetime record against the Mets with a 2.56 ERA while averaging over one strikeout an inning. Blake Snell, although only has a 3-3 record against the Mets, has pitched to a 2.73 ERA also averaging over one strikeout an inning. The last guy I’ll mention who may be giving the Met fans nightmares is Josh Hader. In 13 innings against the Mets, Hader has struck out 28 batters, allowed only 5 runners to reach base safely, and has only given up 1 run on a solo shot.
Murmurs: From 2019 to today, the Padres have more than doubled their payroll ($95 million to $213) and acquired a plethora of big names to only come 22 games short of the first-place NL West, LA Dodgers.
6. Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)
Hitting: The Phils have a lineup of about 6 or 7 guys who take the field but should really only be designated hitters. Philly was without Bryce Harper for over 60 games this year but Rhys Hoskins (30 deep drives) and Kyle Schwarber (46 yabbos) were able to pick up the slack.
Pitching: Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola should give Liberty City a legitimate shot at upsetting the Cardinals in St. Louis.
Murmurs: Rob Thomson, is only the 4th manager in MLB history to take over a team at least 7 games under .500 and lead them to the playoffs. Dick Howser (1981 Royals- did it during a split season), Cito Gaston (1989 Blue Jays), and Jim Tracy (2009 Rockies) were the other 3. None of their teams made it to the World Series.
NFL Picks Week 5
Warped Logic: Week 5, ‘22
Thursday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Matt Ryan doesn’t have Julio Jones and Russell Wilson makes every defense look like the Legion of Boom. That pretty much sums up this game. With both starting running backs out, these offenses looked worse than pedestrian. Richard Sherman going off on the post-game may have been the highlight of the night. America has spoken and they have had enough of the Broncos on prime-time, please fix @Roger Goodell.
1-0-1 to start the week. Next week is Washington traveling to Chicago. I’ll mark down 19-12 Bears.
Sunday Mornin’ in London
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Daniel Jones is on track to play after suffering an ankle injury in last weekend’s game. The Giants actually had a series where Saquon Barkley was taking snaps in the wildcat out of necessity after backup QB, Tyrod Taylor, was concussed. There are conflicting reports as to whether Wan’Dale Robinson will play this weekend, but a few things for certain are that pass rusher Azeez Ojulari, playmaker Kadarius Toney, and free agent bust, Kenny Golladay will be out on Sunday as they will not travel overseas with injuries. Aaron Rodgers hit the 500th career passing TD mark this past Sunday against the Pats. Romeo Doubs was on the receiving end of Rodgers’ pass. Doubs was only 7 years old when Rodgers threw his first career NFL TD, so that could explain how the 18-year vet can get cranky with his inexperienced teammates. Should be a fairly entertaining start to a Sunday.
Prediction: 24-16 GB (-7.5 GB & Under 41)
1 PM Slate
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Nice win last week for the NY Jets. They were able to get out of the AFC North with a 2-2 record. That may not sound too impressive now but that division always seems to play better with the winter chill looming so the fact they got these games over with early in the warm shouldn’t be overlooked. Zach Wilson in the 4th Quarter last week played his best football as a professional so far. How about instead of laying another home dud, the Jets find a way to defeat Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater and really make AFC East that much more interesting? When healthy this year, the Dolphins are the better team, but they’re banged up at the moment.
Prediction: 27-23 NYJ (+3 NYJ & Over 43.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
The Bills are the much better team, but even on the road, 14 points is too much to give the Steel Curtain. I’m not saying that I had the foresight to see the Kenny Pickett era coming, it is just what the record states.
Prediction: 28-20 BUF (+14 PIT & Over 47)
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
This is one of those games where you don’t watch and Kirk Cousins pads the stats. I’d like to shout out Justin Fields, last week was his first game where he attempted over 17 passes this season, Chicago welcome to the 21st century.
Prediction: 24-17 MIN (-6.5 MIN & Under 43)
Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots
Week 4 saw the Lions not cover their spread for the first time, however, they are now 4 for 4 on hitting the Overs. The Lions quietly lead the league offensively in yards per game while simultaneously giving up the most points. Are Pats fans really going to trick their minds into thinking Bailey Zappe is more than a Jarret Stidham?
Prediction: 29-20 DET (+2.5 DET & Over 47)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Keenan Allen’s setback from his hamstring injury last week may end up costing him several more weeks according to Jesse Morse, MD. The veteran WR has gone from almost being able to play the Chiefs on a short week Thursday nighter Week 2 to now being out likely more than a month of the season. Herbert will still find a way to defeat a backup QB.
Prediction: 35-14 LAC (-3 LAC & Over 48)
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars gave Philly a bit of a fight last week despite Trevor Lawrence fumbling 4 times in a monsoon. Their defense has been added in over 50% of fantasy football this week as a stream against the Texans. Davis Mills for the Texans has now thrown 2 INTs in back-to-back games, can the Jaguars’ defense with 9 takeaways already on the season make it 3 in a row?
Prediction: 21-10 JAX (-7 JAX & Under 44)
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Derrick Henry looks to be running back to his old self, carrying the rock over 20 times in each of the past two weeks. Would have to expect more of the same this weekend. Luckily for me, the Jets play during the slot so I don’t have to subject myself to Ryan Tannehill vs. Carson Wentz appointment television.
Prediction: 22-19 TEN (-2.5 TEN & Under 42.5)
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints
For the Saints, both Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas did not practice Thursday. Taysom Hill should be forced into the starting lineup at QB, just to make this matchup a bit juicier.
Prediction: 18-12 NO (-5 NO & Under 43.5)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
tom brady and his divorce lawyer filling out the alimony paperwork since gisele is worth $150 million more than him
Rest assured Brady will cash in over the Falcons this weekend.
Prediction: 31-17 TB (-8.5 TB & Over 47.5)
4 PM Slate
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Rush joins the elite company of Kyle Allen, Trevor Siemian, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ben Roethlisberger, and Patrick Mahomes as QBs in the past two decades to go undefeated in their first 4 starts. With every passing week, Rush is making the Dak Prescott return that much less necessary as the Cowboys have found a way to win football games relying on their stout defense for a change. Dallas has been able to let their “prized possession loose” (#11). The only problem this weekend is the Rams coming off a tough prime-time loss match-up really well with the Cowboys.
Prediction: 17-10 LAR (-6 LAR & Under 45.5)
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
Baker Mayfield is starting to hear boos down in Carolina but for the moment it looks like Sam Darnold is still about a week or two away from beginning to even practice fully. If Mayfield gets benched for Darnold, could that be the end of his time in the NFL as a QB1? Would he be willing to hold a clipboard and serve as a backup? All of this speculation is with the assumption that the 49ers handle the Panthers to the point where Jordan Mason finally sees multiple touches in an NFL game.
Prediction: 29-15 SF (-4.5 SF & Over 39)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
What a difference a year makes. Last year entering week 5 the Eagles were 1-3 (94 points vs. 106 points against), and this year the Cardinals are 2-2 (88 points vs 103 points against). Conversely, this time last year the Cardinals were 4-0 (defeating opponents by about a 2 TD margin on average), and the Eagles this year are undefeated winning by an average margin of 11. This feels like a game where Hurts and the Eagles jump out to an early lead, Kyler Murray struggles and then puts up some garbage time points.
Prediction: 33-21 PHI (-6 PHI & Over 49.5)
Prime Time
Sunday Night
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Something in the orange tells me the Bengals have found their grove and the extra rest from playing last Thursday night will only help. Lamar Jackson has been fantastic but this isn’t your Ray Lewis-Ed Reed signature Baltimore defense. Isaiah Likely, a +450 anytime touchdown, will likely see more targets out-wide if Rashod Bateman (Questionable - Foot, day to day, hasn’t practiced as of Thursday) can’t go.
Prediction: 28-24 CIN (+3 CIN & Over 48.5)
Monday Night
Alright! Dodgers Astros, if I end up talking baseball I at least have a clue who’s good.