This may have happened last weekend but as an aspiring baseball historian* (target date ~ the early 2040s, these baseball writers tend to stick around awhile), I need these quick Pujols paragraphs in my almanac so you’ll have to skip through this if you’re here for Aaron Judge or football.
Albert Pujols Joins the 700 Club
Why is 700 home runs special? As a society at large and especially sports fans, we love shiny round numbers. Albert Pujols became the 4th player in MLB history to join the 700-club. One pretty cool feat is he will retire after this year with the most home runs by a non-American-born player. Pujols had a meteoric rise to stardom as a 21-year-old who could play both corner infield and outfield positions, winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2001. He dominated the MLB Steroid Era without the use of any PEDs. His one “scandal” is that he is allegedly much older than he says he is.
Maybe don’t include the last couple of sentences on his plaque in Cooperstown. From his age 21 to 36 seasons (2001-2016), Pujols averaged a ridiculous .309 batting average, 37 homers, and 114 RBIs a season. He won the MVP 3 times and has over 3,000 hits, with 6 silver sluggers and 2 gold gloves at first base. His 11 All-Star appearances accompany his 2 World Series rings. Although he never may have been the same player once he left Saint Louis in 2011, he was beloved enough by their fans to bring him back this year for his retirement tour. He delivered by making history.
*Look there will come a day when the Jared Carrabis’ of the world will have a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame. No knock on Jared, he’s talented at what he does and has made quite a healthy living off trolling the Yankees in 140 characters or less; but is that really all the criteria for the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) is going to be in 20 years? I’ll work a 9 to 5, do this writing thing on the side as the village idiot talking sports (with brief flashes of flair, if I may), and Jared’ll run his Twitter fingers to his masses. Maybe in a few decades with some hard work, timely hitting, and extremely fortunate bounces of luck, the BBWAA injects some new faces into the vote casters for immortals of America’s Pastime. Only half-kidding, relax, I’m not that delirious. C’mon now, this is all just for fun. No way is this just the start of some elaborate slowplay to eventually get Bernie Williams inducted into Cooperstown. Alright, back to reality…
Aaron Judge & Roger Maris
Two things to start: 1) If and when #99 hits #62, he will 100% lead off next week. Pujols got this week’s opener, never know if the BBWAA is watching so proving I can be fair and unbiased is paramount. 2) My bad everybody rooting to witness history, I had the volume on 61 for every one of Judge’s at-bats the past week. Was trying to spice things up and it felt apropos. As soon as I switched the volume back to an even number like a normal person, he hit the dinger to tie Roger Maris.
Very fitting that the American League MVP went deep in the 7th inning of a tie game, according to Katie Sharp it was the 18th time this season Judge had hit a go-ahead home run.
Luckily, his 61st home run landed in the Blue Jays’ bullpen and he was able to give the ball to his mom. Love how that worked out and that Roger Maris Jr. agrees with the assessment that if Judge hits 62, he is the true Home Run King.
The Baltimore Orioles are heading to the Bronx this weekend. Sections 103-106 and 133-136 (where his 62nd homer would likely land) have seen soaring prices as that hypothetical ball will be worth millions. The team on the other side of the city has a pretty big weekend coming up as well…
NY Mets @ ATL Braves
The defending World Series champion Braves are hosting the Mets in a pivotal 3-game series. With only 6 games remaining in the regular season, this series will have dire consequences for the playoff hopes of both teams. The winner of the NL East will have a first-round bye (3-game series between Cardinals of the NL Central and 3 wild card teams). This is the first year of this playoff structure, so I’m making some assumptions, but having to pitch top guys in the first-round series won’t allow teams to have their Ace match up for Game 1 of the Divisional round. It could also lead to overworking bullpens early on in the playoffs, in theory making a first-round bye critical for a deep October run.
Pitching Matchups
Friday Night: Jacob deGrom (5-3, 2.93 ERA) NYM | Max Fried (13-7, 2.50 ERA) ATL
Saturday Night: Max Scherzer (11-4, 2.13 ERA) NYM | Kyle Wright (20-5, 3.18 ERA) ATL
Sunday Night: Chris Bassitt (15-8, 3.27 ERA) NYM | Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.29 ERA) ATL
The Mets are in pretty good shape here. Of course, you never know what could happen in October baseball against a bitter rival, but as long they come out of this series with at least one win, they likely wrap up the division in Washington early next week. In a surprise move last night, reports stated the NYM called up their #1 prospect Francisco Alvarez just in time for this series and subsequently the postseason. He is a catcher by trade but it sounds like they plan to use the power-hitting righty as their DH. On the Braves side, they have their own 21-year-old phenom in Michael Harris. The rookie who patrols centerfield is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year and has enjoyed a .330 batting average, 6 homers, and 19 RBIs month of September.
Come back next week for an MLB Playoff Preview. On to the gridiron…
NFL Picks Week 4
Warped Logic: Week 4, ‘22
Thursday Night
Miami Dolphins 15 @ Cincinnati Bengals 27
The Bengals and Joe Burrow have seemed to right the ship after winning their 2nd game in a row following their 0-2 start. Tee Higgins led the Bengals pass catchers this week - racking up 7 catches for 124 yards and a TD. The main focus of this game will likely be about the Dolphins QB, Tua Tagovailoa, who since the last time I wrote has suffered what looks like two obvious concussions in less than 5 days. Not a great look for the NFL and player safety. Best wishes for Tua as the scary scene is something you never want to see. He is currently in concussion protocol, but the good news is he was able to travel home with the team. There is an ongoing investigation going on about Tua’s previous concussion protocol (Sunday mid-game) that allowed him to play in last night’s game. I’m thinking this will take about a week to be reviewed by the NFLPA, which would line the punishment up to Phins vs Jets Week 5. A one-game suspension for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, in my opinion, is just.
As mentioned last week I said to put me down for Bengals 34-31, which means I would’ve fallen in line with the Dolphins +3.5 and the over. Well, I went 0-2 to start Week 4. I thought about switching this around but as you know I’m a reliable narrator. Next week’s Thursday Night game is the Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, put me down for 17-16 Broncos.
Sunday Mornin’ in London
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
It’s only been 3 weeks so hopefully, they’re able to get this game in. These two teams have faced off five times in the playoffs with the Vikings holding a 4-1 series lead. The two most memorable times they matched up were the 2010 NFC Championship (Bounty Gate Era Saints, 31 vs Brett Favre - who we confirmed years ago was a scumbag, 28) and the 2017 NFC Divisional Round (Stefan Diggs Minneapolis Miracle 26-20 Vikings).
Prediction: 26-20 Vikings (-3 MIN & Over 43.5)
1 PM Slate
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
What storyline should I go with? Doug Pederson’s revenge on Philly? Trevor Lawrence becoming THE Mr. Sunshine of the NFL? How about that the Eagles are the only undefeated team left and we’re less than a month in.
Prediction: 28-21 PHI (-6.5 PHI & Over 48.5)
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
For Jet fans, Zach Wilson entering the fold makes this game feel like the season has finally started. If Wilson is healthy enough to play, then they should be getting him on the move earlier with designed rollouts. Should be an upgrade going from a statue to a 23-year-old. If he can play as well as a young Kristin Cavallari’s ex-husband, this team should really be able to move the ball. The Steelers have allowed the 5th most rushing yards on defense so feed Hall and Carter. Can Elijah Moore or one of the high-priced free agent TEs make their first impactful play of the season? From the Black and Yellow perspective, their 24-year-old rookie QB, Kenny Pickett, is still in the wings behind the former #2 overall pick, Mitch Trubisky. The great Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season at the helm of the ship, but he has also never had to work in a rookie first-round QB. If Pickett doesn’t get a chance to play this week, the Steelers will either have to throw him into the gauntlet at some point in the next month against the Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, and Eagles or wait to start him after their Week 9 bye. The Steelers are 0-6 without TJ Watt since he was drafted. Even if they’re on their 3rd-string tackles, this is as close to a must-win for Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas as it gets.
Prediction: 24-17 NYJ (+3.5 NYJ & Under 41.5)
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
Saquon and the fundamentally sound but boring to watch offensive playmakers for the Giants (with the exception of the injured Kadarius Toney) will look fresh in their ’80s and ’90s throwback uniforms this weekend. That in itself should give the Giants a 3-point advantage.
Prediction: 13-9 (-3 NYG & Under 39)
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
If D’Andre Swift can’t go for the Lions it’ll be interesting to see if Jamaal Williams can maintain his good play as the lead dog in the backfield. Amon-Ra St. Brown also being questionable to go on Sunday makes this pick risky, but forget what Pete Carroll says, the Seahawks are in a full rebuild.
Prediction: 27-20 DET (-5.5 DET & Under 50)
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Not sure why this wasn’t moved to a 4 PM flex, instead it’s buried in with nine 1 PM games. These two elite QBs have only gone head to head against each other as starters once, where Lamar Jackson bested Josh Allen in 2019. This time around, Allen has the better team around him and Buffalo is coming off a tough loss. As incredible as Lamar Jackson has been, the Ravens allowed DeVante Parker (156 yards) and the New England ground attack (145 yards, 3 TDs) to torch them.
Prediction: 31-27 BUF (-3.5 BUF & Over 51.5)
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
I’m 0-6 against the spread with these two teams. Copping out with a tie, or a creative way of taking the Titans with no confidence in forecasting how this plays out.
Prediction: 21-21 TIE (+3.5 TEN & Under 42.5)
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons
Per @johnewing: Going back to 2003, teams that start 3-0 against the spread have gone 27-40-1 (40%) against the spread in Week 4. There are 4 teams that fit this criterion, one being the Falcons. The others are the Lions, Texans, and Dolphins.
Prediction: 23-20 CLE (-1.5 CLE & Under 49.5)
Los Angles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Even considering all their injuries, the off-season pundit darlings should still dismantle the Texans.
Prediction: 45-0 LAC (-5 LAC & Over 44.5)
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
A rare battle of two red-heads at QB. Who would let such a thing happen?
Prediction: 20-16 DAL (-3 DAL & Under 42.5)
4 PM Slate
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Baker vs. Kyler, former Heisman trophy winners, and teammates at Oklahoma. The 2018 Rose Bowl (Georgia beating Oklahoma 54-48) was an instant classic. It was littered with future NFL pros. Georgia had a backfield of Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, and D’Andre Swift. Oklahoma had big game pass catchers in Hollywood Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Mark Andrews. The Cardinals haven’t beaten the Panthers since 2013, but Murray is 2-0 vs Mayfield (Cleveland State Farm commercials) so something has to give (Stat Tweet). Banking on a Carolina letdown game coming off a nice week 3 win against the Saints.
Prediction: 22-19 (+1.5 ARI & Under 44)
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
After starting his NFL head coaching career as 6-0 in 2009 with the Denver Broncos, Josh McDaniels has impressively gone 5-20 as a head coach since. McDaniels is still looking for his first win as the Vegas coach. On the other hand, Russell Wilson, what are we doing here?
Prediction: 28-24 DEN (+2 DEN & Over 44.5)
New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers
The combination of Mac Jones on a bummed ankle / Brian Hoyer or Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau? Hmmm…
Prediction: 24-12 GB (-10.5 GB & Under 40)
Prime Time
Sunday Night
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Regards to all those affected by Hurricane Ian. Scary stuff. After murmurs of being moved to Minneapolis, the NFL has decided to keep the rematch of Super Bowl LV in Tampa Bay. This will be Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes’ 6th faceoff and the first time since the early ‘21 Super Bowl. After such a defining Super Bowl where Brady became the oldest QB to have started and won a Super Bowl (shocking that he beat his own record from the Eagles’ Super Bowl). Mahomes is leveling up this career matchup 3-3.
Prediction: 30-17 KC (-2 KC & Over 45)
Monday Night
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel were WR 1 and 2 in yards after the catch (YAC) in 2021. Deebo has been very solid thus far but hasn’t “gone off” like last year. Kupp is coming off 4 catches for 44 yards in Week 3. Last week was the first time that he didn’t have 5 catches and/or 50 receiving yards since Week 12 of 2020. Back when everybody use to go into the office on Mondays, this matchup would have been some nice water cooler talk.
Prediction: 21-20 LAR (+2.5 LAR & Under 42.5)
College Football Week 5 Features
#7 Kentucky at #14 Ole Miss | 12 p.m. | ESPN
Sunday Scouts
Kentucky: Will Levis (QB), Jacquez Jones (LB)
Ole Miss: Zach Evans (RB), Quinshon Judkins (RB)
#2 Alabama at #20 Arkansas | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
Sunday Scouts
Alabama: Bryce Young (QB), Will Anderson Jr (EDGE), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Arkansas: Raheim “Rocket” Sanders (RB), Jadon Haselwood (WR)
#9 Oklahoma State at #16 Baylor | 3:30 p.m. | FOX
Sunday Scouts
Oklahoma State: Spencer Sanders (QB), Tyler Lacy (DT)
Baylor: Richard Reese (RB), Blake Shapen (QB)
#5 Clemson vs. #10 NC State | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
Sunday Scouts
Clemson: Bryan Bresee (DT), Myles Murphy (EDGE), Will Shipley (RB)
NC State: Devin Leary (QB), Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (RB), Drake Thomas (LB)
YouTube Rabbithole
ESPN’s “The Bronx is Burning”
Inspired by the new 30 for 30 “Yankees-Dodgers: An Uncivil War” about the late 1970s and early 1980s rivalry between the NY and LA. If interested, you can find it on ESPN+. This YouTube clip however is the first episode of a mini-series made in 2007 about the Bronx Zoo era Yankees. John Turturro portrays Billy Martin. It’s always cool in sports when a team takes on the personality/identity of the city they represent. Looking forward to watching the 30 for 30, might have to do a review.
Cheers! Have a nice weekend.