Our very first mailbag comes from the subscriber Dave Thomas. Let’s get right into it.
Dear Tom,
Longtime reader, first-time contributor. Great job on taking the Jets in Cleveland last weekend. After reading Week 2, ‘22, I immediately took out a loan, and let’s just say thanks to your picks I was able to invest in a small fixer-upper on Lake Tahoe. Anyway, what are your thoughts on the Cleveland Browns candy-ass midfield logo?
Truly yours,
Dave Thomas
Woah Dave, careful now. Are we sure you can call an elf a candy-ass in the year 2022? (**Turns to the side & whispers** “I guess we’ll find out.”) No need to go there, man. Browns fans do deserve some ridicule though, so I’ll try my best to take a shot at that hobbit piece of dirt by calling it a ginger. (I can play that card, I got G14 classification). That ugly redheaded troll should be replaced with their Orange helmet. That SPF-150-wearing, pasty-as-hell, whiter-than-this-background-looking ass should be gone after getting embarrassed last Sunday.
Thanks for your question, Dave. If Week to Week Notes ever does prestigiously chart as a Top 100 Sports blog newsletter on Substack, hopefully, a blue checkmark on Twitter doesn’t dox me and spit out their coffee over your candy-ass comment. It would be a real shame if Wendy’s got canceled over this. Real shame.
Go run out and get yourself some Spicy Chicken Sandwiches while you can. Now onto the real story of the week…
The Great Bambino & Aaron Judge
As of last night (Thursday), September 22, 2022, Aaron Judge has been sitting on 60 home runs for 2 consecutive nights. If you haven’t seen how he dramatically tied the Sultan of Swat you can click (here) or catch it on YES Network as a Yankees Classic. The last time a Yankee hit as much as the Titan of Terror was Roger Maris in 1961. #99 now has 5 games to hit the 61 mark before game 154, the Colossus of Clout (the Colossus of Clout) back in his day didn’t get 162 chances. Ideally, Judge hits 2 over the weekend against the Sox to surpass Maris and the King of Crash (sorry the last one, I had to) without any asterisks involved to claim the undisputed record.
I’m not saying the Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa seasons never happened. All 3 of those players should be in the Hall of Fame. It’s impossible to tell the story of baseball without at least acknowledging the era in Cooperstown. A signed McGwire Vortex Nerf Bat should be on display, but let’s just take a look back at what was going on in that era in comparison to today. In 1998, a juiced McGwire and Sosa hit 70 and 66. In 1999, McGwire (65) and Sosa (63). In 2001, Barry Bonds (73) and Sosa (64). Barry Bonds was a create-a-player with all 99 ratings named Jon Dowd in MVP Baseball 2005 (underrated soundtrack) as a 40-year-old. Aaron Judge is on 60 and the next closest is Kyle Schwarber with 40, this is Ruthian stuff. Now Met and Red Sox fans, I know you’re fuming - I can sense it. You’re going to tell me the ‘90s Yankees played in the steroid era, to which I’ll respond “but none of their core was juicing when they were winning (Bernie, Jeter, O’Neill, Mo, etc…)”. You’ll disagree stating “well what about Roger Clemens?” In which I would counter, “Let’s be honest, he’s a Red Sox.”
One fewer sports argument was just avoided, glad we cleared that up, fellas…
All the arguments and stats aside, this is one of those unique times in sports where if you care at all and are free over the weekend - it may be an “I remember where I was moment.” Having been lucky enough to be at the game Wednesday night, I along with all 54,000+ in attendance were convinced it was happening. I’ve never seen a packed Yankee Stadium crowd be less enthusiastic about a Yankee hitting two doubles. The whole time you’re there, people are constantly checking the jumbotron lineup to see how many guys need to get on to guarantee him another at-bat, and when he is at the dish 62% of the crowd is taking a video. Yes, it’s a little black-mirrory, but you can also look at it that a ton of people want to have their own connection with this historic moment. The team winning the last two nights has felt like a bizarre secondary afterthought.
This post is public so feel free to share if you’re compelled to do so. If not, don’t sweat it. Thank you for scrolling up to this point.
Nothing like a dual backup QB duel for a Thursday nighter. Jacoby Brissett has been all Cleveland could hope for so far, connecting with Amari Cooper for 101 receiving yards the past two weeks. Nick Chubb continues to play at an RB1 pace. Pittsburgh at this point is just prolonging the inevitable by sticking with Mitch Trubisky for at least another week when everyone wants to see Kenny Pickett get a shot. Besides the nice one-handed snag by George Pickens (above), the Steeler offense had no real wow plays and continuously sputtered throughout the second half. Week 3 is off to a 2-0 start after having the Browns -5 and the Over at 39. Next week is Dolphins @ the Bengals. Put me down for 34-31 Bengals.
1 PM Sunday Slate
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
The Bills have looked every bit the part as the most complete team thus far, dominating on both sides of the football. The only way I could see the Dolphins winning this is if Xavien Howard can lock up Stefon Diggs on crucial 3rd downs (Diggs bested X last year).
Prediction: 31-20 BUF (-5.5 BUF & Under 52)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
The Titans are 1 of 9 home underdogs this week, the most home dogs for a Week 3 since at least 2003 (Tweet). The Raiders’ run defense has been stout, holding Austin Ekeler to 36 rush yards and James Connor to 3.6 yards per carry in Week 2. The narrative of this game will be two desperate 0-2 teams grasping for their last bit of hope this season. I like Carr’s weapons more than Tannehill’s.
Prediction: 23 - 16 LV (-2.5 LV & Under 46.5)
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
The two QBs are former #1 overall picks on their new teams. This is 3 straight picks against home dogs, I don’t feel great about that.
Prediction: 20-13 NO (-2.5 NO & Under 40.5)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
In his 2 career games against Bill Belichick, Lamar Jackson has rushed 27 times for 116 yards and 2 rushing TDs. Last week the Dolphins blitzed Jackson 17 times and he completed 13 passes on 16 attempts for 213 passing yards and 2 TDs. Interested to see how the Hoodie will play him.
Prediction: 27-16 BAL (-3 BAL & Under 43.5)
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
How will Justin Jefferson respond to the worst game he has played as a pro? Darius Slay allowed 1 catch for 7 yards and had two interceptions when guarding Jefferson last Monday Night. The Lions have been a fun team on offense, putting up 181 and 191 yards on the ground while featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown as Goff’s most reliable pair of hands.
Prediction: 38-34 MIN (+6 DET & Over 52.5)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Have to give Jalen Hurts some credit. He is using his legs very efficiently and has been dropping some dimes. While the mainstream narrative will be Carson Wentz facing Philly, I’m wondering if Jahan Dotson can find the endzone for the 3rd consecutive Sunday? His 3 receiving touchdowns in his first 2 career games are the most by anyone over the last 5 years and you’d have to think Darius Slay shadows Terry McLaurin. While historically Hurts has been pedestrian through the air against Washington, in 3 career games he has rushed for 116 yards with 4 TDs on 23 attempts.
Prediction: 27-20 PHI (-4.5 PHI & Under 50.5)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Wouldn’t expect this to be as much of a blowout as I state below, but I needed normal football numbers that got me over 50 points and 35-17 is too obvious. Matt Ryan has looked… well… not great. Colin Cowherd tweeted, “Matt Ryan moves like Tom Brady should move, at 45”, which is weird because this past March he said Ryan is far from washed and will do well in Indy. Last week Jonathan Taylor only saw 9 carries after being scripted out of the game in passing situations while being down two scores by the early 2nd quarter. The only shot the Colts have of making this a game is if they force-feed the ball to him 30+ times.
Prediction: 37-14 KC (-7 KC & Over 50)
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
This might be a brutal watch. Justin Fields has started 8 quarters of football this year and still has fewer pass attempts (27) than Trey Lance (31) and Dak Prescott (28). Both injured QBs combined have played about 8 quarters. A huge concern with the Chicago signal caller is his ineffectiveness in the running game, averaging only 2.5 yards per rush attempt. While the Texans have shown they won’t be pushovers, I’m sorry but I can’t trust a QB with Davis as his first name. Simple as that.
Prediction: 16-12 CHI (-3 CHI & Under 40.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
“What a homer. Of course, it’s the Jets.” The only home dog of the week. While Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are terrifying on the perimeter, for the Jets to win they will need to contain Joe Mixon (only averaging 3.0 yards per carry). Getting Burrow into obvious passing downs behind a shaky offensive line is critical. Last season Joey B was sacked 51 times in the regular season and was beaten up a bit more in their playoff run. After “retooling” their protection up front this offseason, Burrow has already been sacked 13 times and is on pace to be sacked 111 times in 2022. Good for Joe Flacco, he made me eat crow last week.
Kyler Murray pulled a rabbit out of a hat last week once he started using his legs and scrambling on broken plays. While that may not be completely sustainable in a 17-game season, getting him on the move should be a priority in an offense with a banged-up starting running back, a speedy playmaker questionable, and their #1 wide receiver suspended until Week 7. The Rams historically have contained Murray (1-5 record against LA), expect more of the same.
Prediction: 29-24 LAR (-4 LAR & Over 50.5)
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks
This is one of those 4 pm games where unless you’re a Falcons or Seahawks fan it may be time to touch grass instead of watching. If you’re still out and if for some reason this is the last game being shown on all TVs, it might be time to get home for some Sunday scaries. Would rather have Mariota as a backup over Geno.
Prediction: 28-17 ATL (-1.5 ATL & Over 42)
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Ageless 12s matchup for what could be the final time in their storied careers. While neither has looked great, I have a hard time taking the under on a game between these two. As someone who has been tormented by Tom Brady since I was a child, you’re almost better off having a defeatist attitude thinking he’s going to win, and then being pleasantly surprised when he doesn’t.
Prediction: 23-20 TB (-2.5 TB & Over 41)
Sunday Night
San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos
In a rematch of Super Bowl XXIV, hopefully, this Sunday Nighter isn’t a 55-10 blowout. I’d be shocked considering both teams have been struggling to move the ball much. My Scott Hatteberg candidate for this week is Jordan Mason the 49ers’ backup RB. Mason, an undrafted rookie, made the San Francisco roster over 2021 3rd-round pick Trey Sermon. While he may have a veteran or two ahead of him on the depth chart, let’s be frank, neither Jeff Wilson Jr. nor Marlon Mack will win you your league. Why not take a flier on a guy who runs like a young Marshawn Lynch? The Shanahans love themselves some darkhorse running backs, wouldn’t it be fitting for Mason to break out in Mike Shanahan’s old stomping grounds? Stash him while he’s 3% owned before Sunday night.
Prediction: 21-14 SF (+1.5 SF & Under 46)
Monday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Giants fans, I’ll be honest this is a tough team to root against. I still do of course but it is more of a “hopefully they go 9-8 and just miss the playoffs” situation, which I’m sure many of you heading into the season would’ve signed on the dotted line. I’ll pick against them for a 3rd consecutive week, no need to mess with your groove.
Don’t want to step on TMZ’s toes, but anything negative about Boston sports will be reported here. Celtic’s head coach, Ime Udoka (#StoppingTheSpread pictured above), has been suspended by the Boston Celtics for the upcoming season. Despite being married to Nia Long, he’d allegedly had consensual relations with 2 staff members (both also married, one of which is to the Celtics VP of Finance). I guess that lead singer from Maroon 5 is now sorta off the hook? Not sure how this works, no further comment.
YouTube Rabbithole
Roger Maris’ 61st Home Run
The Yankees’ 1961 championship team was one for the books. They had two sluggers, Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris, who were on a collision course for Babe Ruth’s sacred 60 home run mark set in 1927. The Mick was the homegrown fan favorite, while Maris was traded to the Bronx from Kansas City a couple of years previous and didn’t have the same charisma with the fans. To get a better sense of that historic season, I’d highly recommend the underrated sports film 61*. It can be found on HBO Max and has Barry Pepper (badass sniper from Saving Private Ryan) star as Roger Maris.
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