National Anthem: Chris Stapleton (O/U 125 Seconds)
Halftime Performer: Rihanna (I’m guessing we get Run This Town, Needed Me, Umbrella.)
Warped Logic - Super Bowl LVII
Alright I might just explain what Warped Logic is one final time before Week 1 ‘23 next September. It is free insight into the sick and twisted mind of an overtly biased fan of football. Some may even go as far as to call this a case study. (Yes, this could be named “Football Forecast” or something but it doesn’t carry the same juice and I don’t see Warped Logic trademarked anywhere.)
Head Coaches
Chiefs
Prior to winning Super Bowl LIV with the Chiefs over the 49ers, Andy Reid was known for not being able to win the big one. From 1999 to ‘12, Reid coached the Philadelphia Eagles to a 130-93 record. From ‘01 to ‘03 he went to 3 straight NFC Championships and the Eagles lost. Then in ‘04 he got over the hump only to lose to Tom Brady & the Evil Hoodie in the Super Bowl. In total, he made the NFC Championship Game 5 times with the Eagles before departing for Kansas City. With KC, Reid drafted Mahomes and changed his narrative a bit, although hardcore fans will still probably think his clock management is spotty.
Eagles
Nick Sirianni took over the Eagles head coaching job in ‘21, after they let go of Doug Pederson. Sirianni actually was an assistant coach on the Chiefs from ‘09 to ‘12, before Andy Reid took over in KC and decided not to retain Sirianni’s services. Kind of a cool overlapping storyline. As for the GIF I used of him, Bill Burr roasted him for playing up to the camera if you’re looking for a laugh.
Coaching Edge: Chiefs (Slightly)
Quarterbacks
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes won his 2nd MVP Award for his ‘22 regular season. He will be looking to snap a streak of 9 straight MVPs who have played in the Super Bowl and lost. That list includes Kurt Warner (‘01), Rich Gannon (‘02), Shaun Alexander (‘05), Tom Brady (‘07), Peyton Manning (‘09 & ‘13), Cam Newton (‘15), Matt Ryan (‘16), and Tom Brady (‘17).
Eagles
Jalen Hurts’ progress as a passer is certainly a big part of the reason the Eagles are playing in the Super Bowl. There has been a ton of talk about how good of a team Hurts has around him, he does have a very talented group of skill position players, but he’s still responsible for getting them the ball so credit to where its due. What makes Jalen Hurts special though is his dual threat ability. @YouTheReader keep in mind that the most rushing yards by a QB in the Super Bowl came from Steve “Air” McNair (RIP) back in ‘00 when he went for 64 yards. Could Hurts break that this Saturday?
QB Edge: Chiefs
Skill Position
Chiefs
Travis Kelce has to headline the Chiefs’ skill position players. His 1,338 receiving yards this season ranks 4th all time for TEs in a season. Of course, the future Hall of Famer’s ‘20 season of 1,416, ranks #1 all time so he still holds that crown. The X-Factor Chief WR that has a real chance to “arrive” as a household name in America is Kadarius Toney. The former 1st Rounder from the Giants ‘21 Draft, is incredible when he has the ball in his hands. If Andy Reid can scheme something up to get him some room in space, Toney could bust a move in a phonebooth and I’m sure would love the Super Bowl spotlight. Rutgers’ Isiah Pacheo on the ground (830 rushing yards with a 4.9 yards per carry) and Georgia Sotuhern’s Jerick McKinnon (56 catches for 512 receiving yards) through the air are a formidable tandem at RB. Patty Mahomes also chips in on the ground if you let him, his 358 rushing yards will be taken if the defense gives it to him.
Eagles
While the Eagles acquisition of AJ Brown certainly raised the standard in the Philly WR room, the Heisman winner of ‘20, DeVonta Smith, made huge strides in his sophomore season in the NFL. His 1,196 recieving yards and 7 TDs make him an elite sidekick next to AJ Brown’s 1,496 receiving yards and 11 TDs. Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott make up the Philly RB group. Their 1,726 combined rushing yards may not look overtly impressive, but when you combine Jalen Hurts’ legs and 760 rushing yards, they collectively combine for a top 5 rushing attack.
Skill Position Edge: Eagles
Offensive Line
Chiefs
The Chiefs after losing to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago have made it much more of a point of emphasis to allocate more resources to their O-Line. Orlando Brown was acquired from the Ravens to play left-tackle. Joe Thuney was signed by the Chiefs in ‘21 to sure up their guard play. The Chiefs also drafted their center, Creed Humphrey, in the 2nd round in ‘21. They only allowed 26 sacks in ‘22, good for the 3rd best in the NFL.
Eagles
The Eagles offensive line is ranked by PFF as the best unit in the Super Bowl. LT Jordan Mailata (80.0 PFF grade 5th of 45th), LG Landon Dickerson (70.9 PFF grade 6th of 45th), C Jason Kelce (88.9 PFF grade 2nd of 42nd), RG Isaac Seumalo (73.0 PFF grade 8th of 49th), and RT Lane Johnson (84.4 PFF grade 2nd of 49th) are beloved by the graders of pro football focus so I’ll trust their expert analysis because I don’t have time to watch Philadelphia offensive line highlights. To give this paragraph a little life, it is pretty cool that Jason Kelce and Travis Kelce are brothers playing in the Super Bowl, expect the FOX booth to mention that quite a few times.
Offensive Line Edge: Eagles (Slightly)
Rush Defense
Chiefs
2nd year LB Nick Bolton had a historic season for KC. His 180 combined tackles in ‘22 set a Chiefs’ team record. Combined tackles includes solo tackles (1 on 1 tackle of a ball carrier) and assisted tackles (gang tackle with multiple defenders in on the ball carrier). Derrick Johnson’s ‘12 season where he had 109 solo tackles still beat out Bolton’s 108 this season but Bolton assisted on many more plays (180 vs 124).
Eagles
If the Eagles were to have one “weak” part of their team, it would likely be their line backer unit. T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White combined for 269 tackles this season and 13 tackles for loss. The Eagles allowed the 5th most rushing yards in the NFL this season, however, you can’t entirely put that all on Edwards and White as their defense is designed to rush the passer, they are quite content with other teams running the ball on first down.
Rush Defense Edge: Chiefs
Pass Rush
Chiefs
Kansas City’s Chris Jones has by a fairly wide margin been their best defender during the Mahomes Era. His 15.5 sacks this season ranked in the top 5 and contributed to his 3rd place AP Defensive Play of the Year finish. Jones may not have elite help by his side, but rookie George Karlaftis III and Frank Clark did combine for 11 sacks on the edge. The Chiefs as a whole team had 55 sacks this year, which was good for the 2nd most in the NFL.
Eagles
When the Eagles signed Hasson Reddick to a 3 year $45 million deal this past offseason, they must’ve envisioned him coming off the edge for sacks, but I doubt they could have pictured him finishing with a career high 16. Reddick lead the Eagles in sacks, the team that led the NFL in sacking the QB with 70 total. The Philadelphia pass rush group can relentlessly get to the QB with only 4 guys, meaning they can have 7 in to stop the run or drop back in coverage on passes. Brandon Graham had 11 sacks on the opposite edge of Reddick. Javon Hargrave had 11 sacks from the interior along with Fletcher Cox tacking on 7. Josh Sweat had 11 sacks as well. It probably doesn’t get talked enough about how dominate the Philly pass rush has been, but they could easily have the largest impact on the game tomorrow.
Pass Rush Edge: Eagles
Pass Coverage
Chiefs
L'Jarius Sneed is the name to know in the Kasas City secondary. He has a knee and has been limited in practice, but should be good to go tomorrow - it is the Super Bowl. Sneed is very solid in coverage, however, the Chiefs utilize him in many ways as a chess piece. I know this is the pass coverage section, but Sneed comes off the edge on CB blitz’ quite a bit. Opposite and sometimes next to Sneed who plays in the slot, rookie CB Trent McDuffie is another name to know. McDuffie last week against Ja’Marr Chase was only targeted 3 times and allowed only 1 catch for 8 yards. Not many may give the Chiefs defense too much credit, but they were middle of the pack in passing yards allowed. When you factor in the fact that Patrick Mahomes causes opposing teams to get in a scoring shoot out, league average isn’t all that bad.
Eagles
Darius Slay and James Bradberry are the top corners of a defense that only allowed 3,057 passing yards in ‘22. That was good for the least amount given up in the league. Covering pass catchers is obviously much easier when the opposing QB is running for his life, but Slay and Bradberry have the credentials from the past that should give them the benefit of the doubt - they are an elite CB duo. Philadelphia also had a safety, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who’s 6 interceptions were tied for most in the NFL. The Eagles have an elite pass rush with an elite secondary, it is no wonder they were the best team in football.
Pass Coverage Edge: Eagles
Special Teams
Chiefs
Harrison Butker had a career worst 75% FG percentage going 18 for 24. He did just kick the Chiefs into the Super Bowl though with a 45-yard game winner though. The Kansas City punter, Tommy Townsend, led the NFL in Average Net Punt Yards, so that should be in the Notes. Kadarius Toney should be returning all their kicks over Skyy Moore.
Eagles
Jake Elliot went 20 of 23 in field goals. The Eagles changed their punter midseason and picked up Brett Kern. Britain Covey is the Eagles’ punt returner and he averages a below average 9.3 yards per punt return.
Special Teams Edge: Chiefs (I guess)
Prediction: 31-28 KC (+1.5 KC & Over 51)*
*Just wanted it Noted, I’m rooting for the Eagles but I’m taking the Chiefs because I’ve picked against the Eagles throughout the season and in the playoffs. I’d rather be wrong and let my Eagles fan insider get some sports joy, I’m just that kind of guy. If that isn’t some Warped (Fan) Logic, then I don’t know what is. @YouTheReader if you stuck around from the start of the football season I just want to say thanks for reading along with my football picks. I’m already looking forward to next year’s NFL Warped Logic, cheers!
Smile
Smile by The Royal Concept was on FIFA ‘16. Very catchy tune that I think should get a bit more plays from readers who may not have played FIFA with friends 25 hours a day in college. Also I get to tag Leo Messi and Alex Morgan.
Damn, I’m not quite sure exactly what the lyrics behind this are but I always used to get a negative connotation toward how they use “your blog”. Now when I hear this it feels like a personal attack. Do people think of Week to Week Notes as just a blog?!?!? Does that mean I’m just a blogger?!?!?
Man, FIFA always used to have some of the best video game soundtracks.
Are a pair of jeans that get washed twice a month (if they’re not stained obviously), a Champion sweatshirt, and Paddy hat considered dressing sharp? No? Oh well.
Honestly I’m looking forward to how this song sounds on Reel 15 second loop form.
The Royal Concept are Swedish, I’m honestly impressed by the lead singer’s American English accent.
@YouTheReader you know me, just trying to get smiles!
Alright, I got to post this, drinks some pints, and hopefully Stumble Along into something. Nice Irish Win, Cheers!