Sugar, We're Goin Down | CFB Week 6 | MLB Division Series (Game 1s) | YouTube Rabbithole
Alright @YouTheReader,
Sugar, We’re Goin Down by Fall Out Boy came out in ‘05. It peaked at #8 on the US Billboard Hot 100 Charts. I heard the song last winter for the first time in forever and I figured the opening verse would make for a solid tune on in the background of a 15-second Reel. If you’re off of social media and I sound like a complete space cadet right now, I envy you. These are just some of the weird social media marketing thoughts I should probably just keep to myself.
Maybe don’t answer that. For anybody who has been reading Week to Week Notes for a while now, thank you all for sticking around. We are 280 days into ‘23 and there have been 278 Notes to date. I could be wrong but I think consistently working at something every day is my only real shot at growing Week to Week Notes…
…at the end of day week, I might have the freedom to decide what to write but you readers are what makes this all the more fun. If you ever have a suggestion, take, topic in sports that should be covered, etc. please always shoot it over. That’s all the Sugar We’re Goin Down for today, we’ll Pump It Up tomorrow.
On to CFB Week 6…
Oklahoma and Texas played their first football game against one another back in 1900. The nickname for this game is the Red River Rivalry and that stems from the 2nd largest basin of water in the United States being called Red River. I feel like a buffoon because I didn’t know we had a Red River or that it separated Texas and Oklahoma. Texas has won this rivalry on 63 occasions while the Sooners have won it 50 times and they’ve kissed each other’s sisters 5 times. Last year, Texas blew out Oklahoma 49-0. The Longhorns are ranked #3 in the country while the Sooners are ranked #12 in the US of A. This could be the last matchup for the foreseeable future between the two teams in the Big 12 as they both will head to the SEC. Only Michigan vs Ohio State has had more games played while both teams were ranked in the Top 25 all time.
The Sooners are led on offense by their lefty QB Dillon Gabriel. The senior QB was out last year with an injury and was a big part of why Oklahoma got shut out. Gabriel thus far has accounted for 19 TDs on the seasons (15 passing and 4 rushing). Defensively, LB Danny Stutsman holds down the fort. He led the Big 12 in tackles last season and thus far has had 49 in 5 games to go with 2 sacks and an INT.
The Longhorns have their own college vet QB in Quinn Ewers along with talented WRs for him to throw it to. WR Xavier Worthy has an elite NFL type of gear that the Sooners will hope to contain. Last week I picked Texas winning a close one and not covering - I was wrong, as they whooped the Kansas Jayhawks 40-10. This week I’m a full believer, horns up, Texas is back.
Prediction: 38-28 Texas (-5.5 Texas & Over 60.5)
The #23 LSU Tigers are traveling to the #21 Missouri Tigers. I think the winner should get to decide who keeps the Tiger name until the next meeting but I doubt anybody goes for that. This is just the 4th time that these two SEC schools have ever played each other as Missouri holds the 2-1 advantage. Entering Week 6, LSU has a 3-2 record while Missouri is an undefeated 5-0.
LSU is coming off a tough 55-49 loss where they gave up 21 4th-quarter points to Ole Miss. QB Jayden Daniels could not be blamed for the loss as he threw for 414 yards with 4 TDs and also ran from 99 yards with a rushing TD. Daniels was able to find his WR Brian Thomas 8 times for 124 yards and 3 TDs. It feels like LSU is either boom or bust in that they are either ranked top 5 or they are the school with an exorbitant amount of talent that implodes midway through the season with no in-between.
As mentioned these Tigers from Columbia are undefeated at 5-0 for the first time since ‘13. Missouri has an absolute stud WR in Luther Burdern III who will not be in the NFL until ‘25 because he is a sophomore but he is a name to know. So far this year Burden has caught 43 passes for 644 yards and 5 TDs. His 644 yards lead the nation ahead of LSU’s Malik Nabers who has 625 yards. I’m taking these Tigers because it feels like LSU mails it in after they know they can’t win a Natty and why be a jerk to Missouri for no reason am I right?
Prediction: 37-34 Missouri (+5.5 Missouri & Over 63.5)
These two Pac-12 teams have met 13 times with Arizona State winning 10 of them. Colorado is now 3-2 and Arizona State is 1-4. Normally this would be a game to avoid watching, but I’ll be honest it’s not a very deep week of college football so might as well get as much content out of Coach Prime’s Buffaloes as possible.
While Colorado may now start to veer out of the National Spotlight, they had an entertaining run to start the season. Last week against USC they kept things interesting and you can tell they have some real serious talent who went there because of Coach Prime. For instance, WR Omarion Miller is a freshman, and last week he caught 7 passes for 196 yards with a TD. Sanders will need to improve on the offensive and defensive lines before making this team an actual contender but he seems to be able to recruit skill position players very well which is no surprise.
The Sun Devils RB Cameron Skattebo is a one-man wrecking crew. He leads the team in rushing yards with 318 and is 2nd on the team in receiving yards with 228. He displayed incredible balance against USC on his 52-yard TD in Week 4. NFL teams will have a tough to evaluating him as a prospect because of the lack of talent around him but he’s a junior with another year of eligibility so better luck next year.
Prediction: 45-7 Colorado (-3.5 Colorado & Under 58.5)
Kentucky and Georgia have met 76 times with the Bulldogs winning 62 of them. Georgia has not lost to Kentucky since ‘09 and is currently on a 13-game win streak against their SEC foe. Both of these teams are undefeated heading into Week 6. Georgia is ranked #1, while the Wildcats are ranked #20.
Kentucky’s RB Ray Davis had a monster game against Florida with 26 carries for 280 yards and 4 total TDs in their 33-14 win. On the season Davis has 594 rushing yards and 8 TDs as he is now on the NFL Draft radar for ‘24. The Wildcats on defense also have another very talented player in LB Trevin Wallace. The linebacker is originally from Georgia so he’ll be returning to his home state and asked to cover TE Brock Bowers, a tough task at hand.
Georgia last week escaped their first real test of the season by winning a close one at Auburn. Not only was TE Brock Bowers catching passes one-handed, but he also scored the game-winning TD from 40 yards out. Bowers accounted for over half of the Bulldogs’ receiving yards with 157 as the rest of the team combined for 156. I was surprised that Auburn was able to run the ball the way they did on Georgia, rushing for 219 yards. Expect Kirby Smart to have drilled into Georgia’s head that they need to shut down Ray Davis. If they can do so, they win an easier one at home.
Prediction: 31-14 Georgia (-14.5 Georgia & Under 47.5)
Notre Dame and Louisville have only started playing each other this decade as their first meeting was in ‘14. They have only met 3 times with Notre Dame with the last two in ‘19 and ‘20. The Cardinals are 5-0 and ranked #25 in the country. The Fightin’ Irish are 5-1 and #10.
Nyack, New York native, Audric Estime broke the hearts of Dule Blue Devil fans last week when he scored the game-winning 30-yard TD with half a minute to play. Estime is now running at an impressive 7.1 yards per rush which is crazy considering he’s carried the ball 95 times. At QB, Notre Dame could not be more smitten with Sam Hartman who thus far has thrown for 14 TDs without any INTs. CB Benjamin Morrison will be assigned to take on Louisville’s speedster…
WR Jamari Thrash’s name stuck out to me for two reasons. One I thought his last name was trash at first and two the man is averaging over 20 yards per catch this season. Thrash has been thrashing defenses with 22 catches for 444 yards and 5 TDs. He and ND’s Benjamin Morrison should be a fun matchup to watch. Besides Thrash, the Cardinals have a defensive back of their own in Cam'Ron Kelly who last week was named ACC DB of the Week. He forced a fumble and caught an interception in the end zone. Louisville defensively has given Irish QB Sam Hartman problems in the past. When he was on Wake Forest, Hartman went 1-2 against the Cardinals throwing for 5 TDs and 5 INTs. This could be his revenge game.
Prediction: 28-21 Notre Dame (-6.5 Notre Dame & Under 53.5)
MLB ‘23 Playoffs
Divisional Round Series
The Divisional Round is a best of 5, with the first team to 3-win games advancing. The Orioles, Braves, Dodgers, and Astros didn’t have to play in the Wild Card Round so they are fully rested and get to start their best pitchers in Game 1.
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles
Game 1: Andrew Heaney vs Kyle Bradish
The Rangers’ LHP Andrew Heaney is 2 years removed from getting lit up in the Bronx where he pitched to a 7.32 ERA as a Yankee. Heaney this year has pitched to a 4.15 ERA and went 10-6 for Texas. In his postseason career, the 10-year veteran has only pitched 3 innings last year for the Dodgers. The Orioles lineup has hit the southpaw pretty hard in the past, with Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays each hitting .500 with a pair of homes off him. Collectively, the O’s as a team have hit .268 with a .950 OPS off of Heaney.
The Orioles’ Kyle Bradish will be making his first October start. Bradish emerged as Baltimore’s best starter this season pitching to a 2.83 ERA. The 27-year-old righty has 5 pitches in his back pocket with a slider, 4-seam, sinker, curve, and changeup. During the end of May, Bradish faced the Rangers and threw 6.2 innings allowing only 1 ER. The Rangers as a team have only hit .167 with no homers off the right-hander from Peoria, Arizona.
Series Prediction: O’s in 4.
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros
Game 1: Bailey Ober vs Kate Upton’s Husband
Taking the mound for Minnesota is Bailey Ober, the Twins’ #3 starter. Ober doesn’t have an uber amount of pitches as he relies on his fastball or changeup nearly 75% of the time. This season Ober threw to a 3.43 ERA going 8-6 with 146 strikeouts in 144.1 innings. Houston has roughed up Ober in the past, collectively as a team hitting .340 with a 1.030 OPS.
Kate Upton’s husband is 40 years old and might be balding. He will be making his 35th postseason start and has given up 29 career postseason homers. In total when you count the regular season, Kate Upton’s husband has allowed 386 home runs, which is the 2nd most of all the current pitchers in baseball.
Series Prediction: Astros Sweep.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Game 1: Ranger Suarez vs Spencer Strider
The Phillies will be giving the ball to Rander Suarez. The southpaw threw to a 4.18 ERA in 22 starts this year. Suarez made 3 starts in the Phillies World Series runner-up finish last year where he threw for a combined 1.23 ERA in 14.2 innings. He has not faced Atlanta this season, but 3B Austin Riley has given him trouble in the past as he is hitting .375 with a dinger off Suarez in 16 at-bats.
The Braves are going with their ace Spencer Strider. The flaming throwing righty set an Atlanta franchise record for strikeouts in a season with 281. He broke John Smoltz’s previous record of 276. Strider has dominated the Phillies the past 2 regular seasons, going 8-0 with a 1.90 ERA and striking out 72 in 47.1 innings. The key word in that last sentence is regular season because last year Strider got lit up by Philadelphia and was not able to make it out of the 3 inning before giving up 5 earned runs.
Prediction: Braves in 4.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Game 1: Merrill Kelly vs Clayton Kershaw
Arizona announced Merrill Kelly will start Game 1 late last night. The 5-year veteran went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA. At 34 years old, he will be making his MLB postseason debut. The D-Backs game 1 starter for his career has gone 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA against the Dodgers. Not good, but hey there is a first time for everything right?
When Clayton Kershaw first started in the MLB he was a fastball and curveball pitcher, throwing his fastball over 70% of the time and his curve around 25%. As his fastball has declined, you would think he’d throw more curveballs, but he actually started throwing much more sliders. He throws his slider now 45% of the time, his fastball (90 mph) around 37% of the time, and his curveball around 18%. I just find that sort of cool but it makes sense that Kershaw has had to reinvent himself after pitching for well over a decade in the MLB. The DBacks rookie RF Corbin Carroll has no respect for his elders apparently as he is hitting .571 off Kershaw with 2 dingers in 7 at-bats. Kershaw in the playoffs has been an adventure as he has amassed a 13-12 record with a 4.22 ERA, quite the contrary from his 210-92 regular season record with an amazing 2.46 ERA.