NFL Wild Card Round '25
Back in the Mud
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Back in the Mud
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Alright @YouTheReader,
It’s the Wild Card Weekend, so ball up top…
Wild Card Round, ‘25
Saturday Evening
In Jim Harbaugh’s first year back in the NFL, he led the Chargers into the playoffs. After Harbaugh and DC Jesse Minter coached the #1 scoring defense in College Football at Michigan in ‘23, the pair brought their style to the NFL. For the first time in franchise history, the Chargers ranked #1 in scoring defense in the pros, allowing just 17.7 points per game. It was also the first time in Justin Herbert’s 5-year career that his defense wasn’t in the bottom half of the NFL. LA totally gutted their expensive offensive skill position players and hit a home run in the draft. Not only did they take the top tackle, but they selected a 2nd-Round star WR in Ladd McConkey and found a late-round gem at CB with Tarheeb Still. After relying heavily on their running game to begin the season, the Chargers passing offense began to flourish with the development of Ladd McConkey. The rookie wideout averaged 3.2 yards per route vs. man coverage this season, the 4th best yards per route by a rookie in NFL history behind only Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and AJ Brown. McConkey will face off against his former teammate Kamari Lassiter and may even see Derek Stingley shadow him.
The Houston Texans’ offense struggled in CJ Stroud’s sophomore season. While the injuries to WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell haven’t helped, Stroud hasn’t thrown for over 300 passing yards since Week 5, and he more than doubled his amount of interceptions. To make matters worse, RB Joe Mixon slipped down the regular stretch as he averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in their last four games. Perhaps the Texans’ best course of action is to feed Nico Collins. The former Michigan Man WR played for Harbaugh and will likely see double coverage all game. Houston has the defense on the opposite side of the ball to keep things interesting. Their pass-rushing duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter make them 1 of the 3 teams in the NFL to have a pair of double-digit sack artists off opposite ends. That said, I’ll take my chances with Herbert winning his first playoff game down in Houston.
Prediction: 24-17 LAC (-2.5 LAC & Under 42.5)
The Steelers are just the 3rd team in NFL history to enter the playoffs on a 4-game losing streak. The other two teams were the 1986 Jets and 1999 Lions. The Sack Exchange snapped their 5-game losing streak by beating the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round while the Lions, led by Gus Frerotte, lost. Not only are the Steelers in poor playoff company with those two teams, but Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. It’s their longest win-less playoff drought in the Super Bowl Era. HC Mike Tomlin has downplayed that storyline, stating, “That’s my story, not this collective's story. Many of these guys involved do not tote those bags. I happily tote those bags. But that's not something I'm going to project on the collective." Perhaps the simplest reasons for Pittsburgh’s 4-game slide could fall on the shoulders of their QB and star pass rusher. In their last four games, Russell Wilson averaged just 174.5 passing yards and mismanaged the clock on their final drive of Week 18. On defense, TJ Watt hasn’t had a sack in their last three games, but that may be a positive because the former Defensive Player of the Year has never gone sack-less in 4 straight games in his 8-year career.
Lamar Jackson posted yet another stellar season and is firmly in the MVP conversation once again. Jackson led all QBs in passing yards per attempt (8.6) and all RBs in running yards per carry (6.6). The 2-time MVP also became the first QB in NFL history to throw 40+ TDs and rush for 900+ yards in a season. With all of Jackson’s regular season greatness, he hasn’t been able to replicate the same success in the postseason. In the playoffs, Jackson has gone 2-4 and hasn’t put up the same eye-popping stats. He also has historically struggled against Pittsburgh with a 3-5 record, and the Steelers are the only team in the NFL to have picked him off (9) more times than he’s thrown a TD (8). The Ravens have also announced that his top WR, Zay Flowers, has been ruled out with his Week 18 knee injury. Defensviely, Baltimore once again became elite once they decided to play Kyle Hamilton in his natural, free safety role rather than in the slot. From Week 1 to 10, when Hamilton played the nickel, the Ravens gave up 25.3 points and 367.9 total yards per game. Since they moved Hamilton to centerfield over the top, the Ravens have given up just 15.4 points and 261.7 total yards per game. While I think Baltimore will pull this off, I’m not betting against Mike Tomlin as a double-digit underdog.
Prediction: 23-21 BAL (+10 PIT & Over 43.5)
Sunday All Day
The last time the Broncos played in the playoffs was during Peyton Manning’s Super Bowl swan song in ‘15, so it’s been a while. Bo Nix became the first rookie QB to lead Denver to playoffs since John Elway in 1983. One key difference is Elway was sorta just a passenger on their 9-7 playoff run, whereas Nix is in consideration for Rookie of the Year with his 29 passing TDs and four scores on the ground. Nix has completed 52 passes of 20+ yards this season, which surprisingly is only four fewer than Josh Allen. As impressive as Nix has been, the Denver defense has also played its part in their 10-win season. The Broncos boast a deep pass rush with Nic Bonitto (13.5 sacks), Jonathan Cooper (10.5 sacks), Zach Allen (8.5 sacks), and John Franklin-Meyers (7 sacks). Patrick Surtain II was also excellent in coverage this season, as he allowed a career-low 37 receptions for only 8.6 yards per catch. The All-Pro CB picked off four passes as his 132 return yards led the NFL.
Josh Allen and the Bills are hosting their 5th straight Wild Card Round Game in Buffalo. They’ve at least reached the Divisional 2nd Round in each of the past 4 seasons. Allen combined to score 40 total TDs this season through the air and on the ground. The 7-year pro only turned the ball over 6 times this season, a new career-low, and he didn’t lose a single fumble all year. While receiving core may not have the same hierarchy as previous seasons with Stefon Diggs, Allen used Khalil Shakir as his security blanket (76 catches for 821 yards), Keon Coleman as his big-play guy (19.2 yards per catch), Mack Hollins as his red zone threat (5 TDs). While Allen and Amari Cooper have yet to really connect, the 10-year veteran should be trusted enough to make a big 3rd down catch or two, which is exactly what he was brought in for. Buffalo’s defense has taken a step back from previous seasons under Sean McDermott but ranked 3rd in the NFL in takeaways with 16 INTs and 16 fumbles recovered. The Bills this season were an NFL-best +24 in Turnover Differential, leading the next closest (Steelers) by 8. As scary as the talented, young, with-nothing-to-lose-Broncos may be, the Bills are much more playoff-tested at this point.
Prediction: 31-13 BUF (-9 BUF & Under 47.5)
The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles faced off on the Friday Night Football Game Week 1 down in Mexico. The players were slipping and sliding as the Eagles took home a win, while Green Bay was fearful that Jordan Love was out for the season. Love not only returned by Week 4 but solidified yet another year of great QB play in Green Bay. Through 2 seasons as a starter, Love has thrown for 7,548 yards with 57 TDs and 22 INTs. Aaron Rodgers, through 2 seasons as a starter, threw for 8.472 yards with 58 TDs and 20 INTs. One major upgrade for the Packers this season was at RB, as Josh Jacobs put together 1,329 rushing yards with 15 scores. The former Raider has scored a TD in each of the last eight games. The Packers dealt with two unfortunate late-season injuries as WR Christian Watson and CB Jaire Alexander both hit the IR this week.
Philadelphia has reached the playoffs in 8 of the last 9 seasons. The Tush Push Eagles’ have a 39-12 record since 2022, tops the NFC. A slight concern entering the playoffs this year is Jalen Hurts hasn’t played a full game in nearly a month, and he only just passed the concussion protocol earlier this week. One thing that’ll ease Hurts back into action is the fact that he’ll be handing off to the NFL’s latest 2,000-yard rusher. In Saquon Barkley’s Eagles’ debut against the Pack, he found the end zone 3 times, foreshadowing his career year. The star RB and most of Philly’s starters are fully rested from sitting out Week 18. After upsetting the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round last year, I don’t see the Packers getting by this NFC East team.
Prediction: 20-14 PHI (-4 PHI & Under 45.5)
Of all the options to go with the Sunday Night Game, this game is a bit surprising but may be the most entertaining. Both of these teams are absolute wild cards. Washington won 12 games in the regular season for the 1st time since their last Super Bowl in 1991. QB Jayden Daniels not only leads the team in passing yards (3,568) but rushing as well (891). The Heisman Trophy winner made his NFL debut against the Bucs in Week 1 this season as he rushed for 88 yards with two scores. Down the stretch of the regular season, Daniels has done a better job of picking his spots of when to run, as he’s averaging 7.5 yards per attempt in his last four games. The #2 Pick of the NFL Draft can also be attributed to rejuvenating the careers of WR Terry McLaurin and TE Zach Ertz. McLaurin caught a career-high 13 TDs this season after only catching a combined 14 TDs the 3 seasons prior. Ertz’s 66 catches for 654 yards are the most he’s had in a handful of years as well. Daniels’ dual-threat ability make them a dangerous 1st Round matchup.
The Tampa Bay Bucs snuck into the postseason for the 5th straight season and won the NFC South for the 4th year in a row. Baker Mayfield had a career year with 4,500 passing yards and 41 passing TDs, with a completion percentage of 71.4%. He joins elite company as the only other QBs to ever throw for 4,500+ yards and 40+ TDs on 70%+ completion percentage are Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Burrow. Not only was Mike Evans able to eke out 1,000 yards for the 11th straight season, but the Bucs also got 1,122 rushing yards out of their rookie RB Bucky Irving. Offensively, the Bucs averaged a total of 400 yards (3rd best) and 29.5 points (4th best) per game. After having a defensive identity in ‘23, Tampa Bay’s defense regressed to the middle of the pack in ‘24. While they still have a formidable interior with LB Lavonte David (122 tackles, 5.5 sacks), DT Calijah Kancey (7.5 sacks, 11 TFLs), and DT Vita Vea (7 sacks, 10 TFLs) patrolling the gut of their defense, their secondary has allowed 243.9 passing yards per game (4th worst in the NFL). This Sunday Night Football game should be a shootout, I’ll gow with the rookie.
Prediction: 28-27 WSH (+3 WASH & Over 50.5)
Monday Night Game
The Monday Night Football matchup has been moved to Arizona due to the wildfires in the Los Angeles community. While it is reported that none of the Rams players or coaches have been affected by the fires, the homes of some of the support staff members have been impacted. Minnesota Viking QB Sam Darnold grew up an hour south of LA and went to school there at USC. Viking Safety Cam Bynum expressed concern this week, stating, “This is the worst I’ve seen just from the danger and the homes getting hit. Most of the time, it’s just in the mountains, and it’ll get close, so you evacuate out of precaution, but it’s so sad seeing people I know’s houses being burned down.”
In terms of football, this game may very well come down to the elite WR duos. Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison combined for 148.5 yards per game, while LA’s Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp combined for nearly an identical 149.2 receiving yards per game. The Vikings have been touted all season for their DC Brian Flores bringing the blitz (league-high 41.6% blitz rate) as it helped manufacture linebackers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel combining for 23.5 sacks this season. The only problem for Minnesota with this matchup is LA’s Matthew Stafford thrives off facing pressure. When the Rams played the Vikings in Week 8, Minnesota blitzed 8 times, and not only was Stafford not sacked, but it forced him to get the ball out quickly, which generated big plays to Nacua & Kupp. As a Jets fan, I’ll be rooting for Darnold, but I have to give the edge here to the veteran Super Bowl winner over someone making his playoff debut.
Prediction: 25-22 LAR (+1.5 LAR & Under 47.5)
Today’s tune is Bubba Sparxxx’s Back in the Mud. It was in Madden ‘04, the one with Vick on the cover.
This is up there with my favorite songs off a Madden Soundtrack. The chorus was my favorite part, sung by Sleepy Brown.
Bubba Sparxxx is from Athens, Georgia. He apparently made a name for himself as an artist while rapping at a tailgate at the University of Georgia. Must’ve been a big Bulldogs fan.
(Source: All Music)
Growing up in rural Georgia, his closest neighbor lived half a mile from his house. He was influenced by the likes of Atlanta’s own Outkast and NWA. Sparks also played football in high school, starting at tight end and linebacker, while earning All-Regional honors. While his Georgia Bulldog career never panned out, it’s pretty cool he made a song for Madden.
(Source: All Music)
Sparxxx followed up his Madden momentum with his biggest hit song, Ms. New Booty, which somehow peaked at #7 on the US Billboard Hot 100 back in ‘05. I gotta be honest, though; I think Back in the Mud was the much better tune.
The amount of hours I spent on the Depth Charts and Fantasy Drafts of Madden ‘04’s Franchise Mode while this song was on in the background is inconceivable.
