This Football Friday had The Mask by Matt Maeson on in the background. We’ll go right into football and leave the tune for the end.
Thursday Nighter Recap
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 | Buffalo Bills 24
The Buffalo Bills got off to an early lead, up 10-0 midway through the 2nd Quarter. Josh Allen scored a rushing TD while staring into the soul of a Bucs defender as he crossed the plane. Tampa Bay Bucs went on their own run, scoring 10 straight unanswered as Allen threw an interception right after TB got on the scoreboard with a FG. The Bills would then score a TD right before half, get the ball back in the 2nd half, and score again to make the score 24-10. Things were comfortable. It looked like I was going to go 2-0 to start the weekend and then Baker Mayfield led a 7+ minute, 17 play, 92 yard drive down the field for a score. The Bucs kicked off to the Bills with 2:44 left to play so you knew the Bills weren’t going to try to score, just kill time, and this is why gambling on sports stinks as Buffalo failed to cover. The icing on the cake was TB going for and converting the 2-point conversion which pushed the Over/Under. All of this is to say that of course I was rooting for the Bucs, but the Bills not being able to cover makes them frauds.
I had the Bills winning this 22-11 (-8.5 BUF & Under 42) so we’re 0-1-1 heading into the Week 8 weekend.
1 PM Slate
The Jaguars haven’t played since their Week 7 Thursday Night win over the Saints. Jags QB Sunshine Lawrence was asked this week if he is “too young to know what a Terrible Towel is?” Sunshine’s response was, “No, I know what they are, the little yellow towels they swing around.” You know damn well that Steelers HC Mike Tomlin plastered that little yellow towel quote all over the Steelers’ lockerroom. With his interception last week, TJ Watt became the 2nd place in NFL history to record 70+ sacks and 7+ INTs in his 1st 7 seasons. The only other guy to do so is some guy named Lawrence Taylor nicknamed LT. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-2 heading into Week 8 despite having a total point differential on the season of -24. The only other team with a negative point differential on the year with a winning record is the Atlanta Falcons who are -18 and 4-3. So far this year, the Steelers have done a great job at winning the close games, and when they lose they get smoked. I’ll take Pittsburgh as home underdogs in a close one.
Prediction: 20-19 PIT (+3 PIT & Under 42)
While the Steelers are the only team entering Week 8 with a winning record with a negative points differential, the Rams are 1 of only 2 teams with a positive point differential and below .500 at 3-4. Rams rookie WR Puka Nacua was voted the NFL Rookie of the Week for the 3rd time in 7 weeks. Nacua had one of the nicer sideline catches you will this season in his 8 catches for 154 yards Week 7 effort. Since Cooper Kupp’s return, Nacua has not seen a target share decrease either, as in fact last week he saw 12 targets to Cooper Kupp’s 7. If anybody has seen their role decrease in Kupp’s return it has been WR Tutu Atwell. Dallas is coming off a Prime Time win over the Chargers where 12-year veteran CB Stephon Gilmore caught their sealing interception. Gilmore’s 31 career interceptions are 5th among current DBs in the NFL behind Patrick Peterson (35), Harrison Smith (34), Tashaun Gipson (33), and Marcus Peters (32). 1 of those 31 picks came off Matthew Stafford in ‘14 when Gilmore was guarding Calvin Johnson and jumped an underneath flat that Reggie Bush was running. (Pats Pulpit) While that may not be all that relevant this Sunday, who doesn’t like reading some NFL stars of yesteryear? We’re taking Dallas because the Rams have been losing these close games.
Prediction: 25-18 DAL (-6 DAL & Under 45)
As a distraught fantasy football governor of both RB Bijan Robinson and TE Kyle Pitts, I don’t care that the Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith has his team 4-3. This son of a bitch-llionaire has no idea how to use his offensive weapons. After making up an excuse that Bijan Robinson was sick last week, Smith told the media that his usage was based on “whoever has the hot hand,” meaning he deliberately was playing a 32-year-old RB Cordarralle Patterson over the 21-year-old rookie WHO THEY TOOK WITH THE 8TH OVERALL PICK IN THE NFL DRAFT. I knew something was weird when Robinson was inserted into the game on the final drive last week when the Falcons needed to score. Don’t even get me started on the wizardry that TE Kyle Pitts needs to perform in Smith’s offense just to catch an 8-yard pass (GIF above). As for the Titans, rumor has it that Derrick Henry will be on the move and his destination is likely Baltimore. Arthur Smith was Titans’ HC Mike Vrabel’s former offensive coordinator and Smith cracked a joke that they would exchange vests after the game. That is enough about these two teams, thank you for reading my complaint about the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive woes, never again.
Prediction: 9-6 ATL (-2.5 ATL & Under 37)
In Week 7, Colts QB Gardner Minshew became the 1st Colts QB in franchise history to score 2 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs in the same game. It’s even more impressive considering how he did it against the vaunted Cleveland defense. Despite a bit of Minshew’s Madness, the Colts got absolutely hosed by the refs at the end of that game, they deserve some good juju. Saints WR Chris Olave got arrested this week for going 70 mph in a 35, that is bad juju. Hear me out, Minshew over Carr, because of the juju factor.
Prediction: 12-2 IND (-1.5 IND & Under 43.5)
For 5 consecutive weeks, Eagles WR AJ Brown has had at least 125+ receiving yards. Nobody in NFL history besides Calvin Johnson in ‘12 has ever done this. After Johnson averaged 158 yards per game in Weeks 9 to 13 that year, the Georgia Tech alum would post only 118 receiving yards in Week 14, followed by 121 yards in Week 15, and 225 yards in Week 16. That just goes to show what elite company AJ Brown is currently in on his streak, Prime Megatron. Commies DT Jonathan Allen after losing to the Giants told reporters, “They whooped our ass plain and simple…I’m f****** tired of this s***. I’m f****** tired of this bulls***. It’s been 7 f****** years of the same s***.” Speaking of ass-whoopings, Commies QB Sam Howell has now been 40 times through 7 games this season. No other QB in the NFL has been sacked more than 30 times. If the sack pace were to keep up, Howell would get sacked 97 times in the 17-game season which shatter Derek Carr’s older brother David’s record of getting sacked 76 times for the Texans in the ‘02 season. Considering that Philly as a team is 3rd in the NFL in sacks this season, their stout defensive line should feast.
Prediction: 24-17 PHI (-6.5 PHI & Under 43.5)
Does Bill Simmons still drone on and on about his Patrick Ewing theory bit every 3 segments? Has he done one yet on how the Vikings are 2-0 without Justin Jefferson? The take would be that QB Kirk Cousins is much more comfortable evenly distributing passes around his multiple targets rather than having to force-feed Justin Jefferson. I’m not buying it, but I will buy up stock in Jordan Addison. The rookie WR out of USC is tied for 2nd in the NFL in TD receptions with 6 and he’s only 7 games into his career. Not only do the simple stats stand out for Addison but the more in-depth ones do as well, as he is #1 in the NFL in highest contested catch percentage with 58%, the next closest being Niners TE George Kittle’s 41%. At this point, the Green Bay Packers have gotten under my skin. QB Jordan Love is playing exactly how an inconsistent 1st year-starting QB should play, which is a rarity in Green Bay that hasn’t been seen since Brett Favre in 1992. Love after starting the season off with 6 TDs & 0 INTs, has struggled protecting the football, throwing 7 INTs with 4 TDs since Week 3. The Packers are on a 3 game losing streak while the Vikings are on a 2-game win streak, I think both stay their recent course for at least another week.
Prediction: 15-14 MIN (+1 MIN & Under 42.5)
After picking up his 1st career NFL sack in his NFL Debut in Week 1, rookie pass rusher Will Anderson hasn’t tackled the QB behind the line of scrimmage since. The #3 pick in the NFL Draft has been a bit unlucky as he has recorded 7 QB knockdowns in this span, which is good for tied for 5th in the NFL with the likes of TJ Watt and Aaron Donald. The #2 Overall pick, CJ Stroud, finally threw his first NFL INT of his career, but the Saints defender who picked it off proceeded to fumble the ball right back to the Texans so can we pretend it didn’t happen? Stroud’s first 191 pass attempts without throwing an INT are a new NFL record. Houston will be getting back rookie WR Tank Dell after he suffered a concussion in Week 5. We’ll keep up with the rookie theme here as QB Bryce Young was the #1 Overall pick this past draft and is leading the charge for the Panthers to land the #1 overall pick again, oh wait that would go to the Chicago Bears. This will be the 1st time in NFL history that the #1, #2, and #3 Overall picks of an NFL Draft all play in the same game as rookies, but who knows we might see this again next year as the Bears might own 2 top 3 picks and they play the Cardinals in ‘24.
Prediction: 33-29 HOU (-3 HOU & Over 43.5)
Mediocre Mac, the pervert, threw for 272 yards and 2 TDs in a home win against the Bills. Now the City of Boston is Griddy dancing like he’s their franchise QB again. Excellent. I was getting worried he was going to be so bad that he would get benched for good. Phew. We want him floundering around mediocrity so that New England is in QB hell forever. Surely the first-place Phins will humble the Patriots. Phins WR Tyreek Hill gave Miami fans a bit of a scare when he showed up on the injury report earlier this week. Hill told reporters it was nothing, “I just wanted some attention cuz my mom wouldn’t talk to me yesterday so I needed attention from somebody. I’m good though.” The idea of Tyreek Hill whimsically messing around with Vegas betting lines because his mom was ignoring him is great content. First place Phins fish themselves a W.
Prediction: 30-3 MIA (-9.5 MIA & Under 47)
The Battle of New York. I mean New Jersey. The Jets are coming off a bye week where the NY Sports Radio guys had nothing to talk about so they decided to crush Zach Wilson for spending time with family and his new girlfriend during his off week. Weird move and sounds like a storyline I would make up rather than on-air hosts that get paid to talk sports. Bring back Mike & The Maddog. The Jets seemed to get healthy over their break as both starting CBs were cleared to practice after going through concussion protocols. The Giants also appear to have got some health luck as LT Andrew Thomas is finally back to practicing. That said, QB1 for the GMen, Daniel Jones has still not been cleared for contact. From a Jets fan perspective I’m not going to lie I’m a bit more nervous about facing Tyrod Taylor than I was Daniel Jones. Danny Dimes is a bit more susceptible to turning the ball over, whereas Taylor is a savvy vet who knows how to protect the ball and win these defense-first battles. The Jets’ defensive front 4 should be able to get to whoever the Giants have at QB, but in a game like this where the Giants are almost playing their cross-town rival with nothing to lose, it won’t be an easy one by any means.
Prediction: 13-10 NYJ (-2.5 NYJ & Under 36.5)
4 PM Slate
2 days after I wrote about all these nice things about Cleveland Browns’ defense, they went out there and allowed 38 points against a backup QB. This week there was Brown QB on Brown QB crime. Former Browns QB Brady Quinn has questioned Deshaun Watson’s motivation to play after he received his $230 million contract. Watson’s trainer took to Twitter and called Quinn “a little high school chick” for talking about the situation behind a mic. Quinn then invited Watson’s trainer onto Fox Sports Radio by saying, “How about we massage this conversation and get it to a happy ending? Does that sound satisfactory?” Jeez, what a mess and this is after a Browns’ win. Seattle’s rookie CB Devon Witherspoon has been making plays every week in his slot role. Spoon had an interception last week get nullified by a penalty but still gave the 12th Man a highlight on his crushing hit on Rondale Moore. The young Seattle secondary is 8th in the NFL in defensive yards allowed per pass attempt and their front 7 may even be better against the run as they allow just 3.5 yards per carry, good for 3rd in the NFL. I have a hard time seeing PJ Walker go into Seattle and put up points on this defense.
Prediction: 8-4 SEA (-3 SEA & Under 40)
The Cincinnati Bengals had a bye week last week. One would think that another week of rest would only help QB Joe Burrow’s calf. Last year, Burrow after his bye week threw for 355 yards on 62% completion with 4 TDs and 2 INTs. The Bengals also didn’t lose a single regular season game last year after their bye. This year’s Cincinnati team probably won’t go undefeated the rest of the way but is currently on a 2 game winning streak where their QB looks like he might be back to his old self. The Bengals will be heading west to take on the Brock Purdy-less 49ers. Backup QB Sam Darnold will get his first opportunity as a starter in his home state, as Brock Purdy has entered concussion protocol. Last week RB Christian McCaffrey became the 1st player in NFL history to score a TD in 16 straight games (non-QB). Every game that CMC has started as a Niner he has either rushed or caught a TD. While the Niners will be chomping at the bit to get back in the win column, I’ll take the Bengals & the points.
Prediction: 21-16 CIN (+5.5 CIN & Under 46)
Not good. Not good at all. @FellowSwifties I want Taylor out here thriving like the rest of you, but👏we👏must👏keep👏her👏away👏from👏Jackson👏Mahomes👏. That creep can’t be hovering over her like last week every time his brother draws a flag from the refs. Look if he wants to prance around in the corner of his brother’s box for his TikTok, that’s one thing, we can’t let him try to steal Taylor’s glow. Broncos suck.
Prediction: 35-5 KC (-8 KC & Under 46.5)
The Baltimore Ravens heard everybody talk about how great the Detroit Lions are and made everybody remember they’re the Detroit Lions. QB Lamar Jackson had himself a ballgame. He went 21 for 27 through the air (78%) for 357 passing yards and threw for 3 TDs. On the ground, Jackson also rushed for 36 yards and another score. Defensively, Baltimore also played great, as they had 5 sacks and added an absurd 12th player to their sack column. The Ravens now have 29 sacks on the season and are averaging over 4 per game. Spread-wise, I’ve picked against the Cardinals every week, and after they started 4-0 covering the spread, they are now back to even at 4-4. Maybe we change course if Kyler Murray comes back, but for now, we pick against the Cardinals.
Prediction: 32-23 BAL (-8.5 BAL & Over 43.5)
Prime Time
Sunday Scaries
In his first NFL career start, rookie QB Tyson Bagent looked pretty good out there. What Bagent may seem to lack in arm strength, he makes up for it with his quick release. While the Bears didn’t exactly ask him to do too much, Bagent went 21 for 29 (72%) for 162 yards and a score. The Bears ground game helped him out as RB D’Onta Foreman scored twice with 89 rushing yards but Bagent himself also showed some ability with his legs as he rushed for 24 yards. The next step for this undrafted free agent is to play in front of all of America on Sunday Night Football, which may be a different story out in the bright lights of LA. Chargers QB Justin Herbert has now thrown at least 1 INT in 3 consecutive weeks and actually threw 2 INTs last week against Kansas City. Luckily for Herbert, this iteration of Da Bears is a get-right defensive team that allows 7.1 yards per attempt (6th worst in the NFL) and has given up 14 passing TDs (tied for 2nd worst in the NFL). Go Chargers Go.
Prediction: 42-21 LAC (-8.5 LAC & Over 46.5)
Moody Mondays
Raiders QB Jimmy G was back to practicing this week but who cares? This Monday Night Matchup falls on Halloween Eve. Do people call this Gate Night or Mischief Night? I always called it the former but what do I know? Do kids today even go out on Gate Night? I’m assuming since toilet paper became extremely valuable and everybody stocked up on it, kids no longer throw toilet paper. Do they now exclusively just egg houses? I never threw an egg at a house but my house may or may not have egged one year. Anyway, we’re taking the Lions by a few scores. After they just got embarrassed last week in Baltimore, it might have humbled them a bit and so they’ll get back to coach Dan Campbell’s basics of biting the opponents’ kneecaps.
Prediction: 28-7 DET (-8 DET & Under 45)
Matt Maeson’s The Mask came out in ‘19 on his debut album. When I first started writing Week to Week Notes I was listening to this song a ton. It was one of 18 songs on this Spotify Playlist I made for myself called Sports Writing Bit. At the time I couldn’t take myself seriously as a writer, so in my head, I had to think of this whole operation as a bit. This was well before attempting to blend sports & music together with Week to Week Notes or when I started drinking mass amounts of Guinness (responsibly).
For starters, I really didn’t exactly know what it was that I was going for. There are millions of places fans of sports can go to ingest content and it felt very overwhelming attempting to even compete with companies that I grew up consuming. I also felt overwhelmed by how Week to Week Notes would ever grow. That summer only my mom and a handful of people seemed to be clicking on the link to read the once-a-week blog.
On top of that, I also wasn’t exactly in the greatest of head spaces either. Before this writing bit, I was working through dealing with some of my own life stuff. Some of the life stuff was my own fault and other stuff was out of my control. The Mask is pretty dark so I don’t mean to be a downer, but it resonated with me at a time when it felt relatable and in some ways, it helped me write Week to Week Notes.
“‘The Mask’ is about how everybody has a mask they wear and how that always roots back to something—some point in your life where you started pretending, and then eventually started believing that’s who you really are.” - Matt Maeson
I always interpreted these lines to be about anything from the past that may be troubling, like burn wounds you’re trying to heal. Strong open.
Sometimes you just gotta say fuck it. I don’t mean that from an “it’s okay to be an asshole standpoint”, for me I always thought of the lines as fuck it I’m going to do something a bit different, stop caring what people think. Sorta like trying to start a written sports media company in the Roaring 2020s when it’s all about being in front of a camera or on a mic. Writing 10-to-20-minute long-winded ass blogs, columns, or whatever you want to call the Notes may be a thing of the past but fuck all the rules, I’ll do it anyway.
These lines are part of the song that is pretty dark. I’ve always assumed the gun and rope part to be extreme, but I resonated with the dizzying (being overwhelmed) and not getting a perfect 8 hours of sleep part.
In Verse 2, I never know if he means ghosts from his past such as other people, or a ghost from his past being himself. What I mean by a ghost is that anytime he reaches for it, it evaporates into thin air like dust, but it still shows his demons that haunt him. Very spooky song and fitting for Halloween. Brilliantly written too by the way.
Everybody’s got their own problems and ways of going about trying to fix them. I feel lucky as hell because The Mask I created with Week to Week Notes not only helps me but more importantly maybe-sometimes-hopefully does some good for @YouTheReaders as well. That’s the goal.
Alright, well I gotta go post this, and then get busy writing about College Football’s Week 9. This song has been on in the background for much of Week to Week Notes, so it’s nice to cut the anchor loose.