Want Want by Maggie Rogers came out last summer. I have no idea if this was a hit on TikTok or the radio, but I remember hearing it last summer while writing Week to Week Notes. I liked how it sounded a bit different and it was catchy.
The first 15-second intro of the tune is electric and needed to be Reeled. Other than that, I really want-want a Jets victory. Okay, that was corny, sorry I need a coffee.
Cool song, I know my friends haven’t heard. On to the sports…
Warped Logic - Week 3, ‘23
Thursday Nighter
New York Giants 12 @ San Francisco Giants 30
Well, that Thursday Night Game came and went. It was what we expected. The Giants with Barkley in San Fran would’ve been an upset so without him would’ve taken one helluva game out of Daniel Jones. The 49ers look very dangerous. It feels like no matter who they are playing against, they get to dictate how the game will go thanks to their simple but effective offense. They throw screens, run crossing routes, and run the ball the way all Shanahan-coached offenses have been able to since the 90s. McCaffrey, Samuel, and Kittle are special. On defense, Nick Bosa collected his first sack post-massive contract. If you’re a Giants fan, you’re probably not happy about Thursday night, but now they have a long stretch of off days before the Seahawks have to travel to New York next Monday. That should be a winnable game with or without Saquon.
Took the Niners -10.5 and Under 45 so we’re off to a 2-0 start in Week 3…
1 PM Slate
The New England Patriots have not lost to the New York Jets since December of ‘15. The lamestream media talking heads will be all over how the Pats have won 14 straight games, but did you know the Miami Dolphins once beat the Buffalo Bills for an entire decade straight? Yup, 20 in a row from 1970 to 1980. These Patriots are scrappy and disciplined. QB Mac Jones is 0-13 when opponents score 24+ points, is 3-12 record vs. playoff teams, and is 0-12 in comeback games when down by a TD in the 4th quarter. (Source: @iJordanMoore) Take that information as you may. The Jets need this game. While this is not a must-win, a loss this Sunday with Kansas City on Sunday Night in Week 4 will be Aaron Rodgers’ darkness retreat level dark. Pretty grim, much like Coach Robert Saleh’s record against the Patriots (0-4 and outscored 111-39). After Dallas last week, CB Sauce Gardner decided to delete his Twitter account. Sauce, much like Week to Week Notes’ NFL Picks, is attempting to stave off our Sophomore Slumps.
Prediction: NYJ 16-15 (+3 NYJ & Under 36.5)
Broncos head coach Sean Payton might already be laying blame on Denver’s 0-2 record on Mr. Unlimited. “There were a number of drives where we were late with personnel, getting out of the huddle took a while… Russ has to be sharper with getting the play out, and then we have to look at how much we have in. If we need to wristband it, we will.” Last week Denver lost when they couldn’t convert on the 2-point conversion after their Hail Mary prayer Touchdown. If I were a Denver fan I’d still be in a catatonic state of being. The Miami Dolphins will be hosting their home opener likely without their star 3rd year WR Jaylen Waddle who is currently in concussion protocol. With no Waddle, Tyreek Hill said, “A lot of people are going to be shocked to see Braxton and River show out on Sunday if Jaylen doesn’t play.” Hill himself, has already caught 3 TDs this year but will have Patrick Surtain II guarding him so he may be more of a decoy Sunday.
Prediction: 30-19 MIA (-6.5 MIA & Over 48)
Don’t blitz Josh Allen. The Bills QB against the blitz this season is 17 of 19 for 163 yards and 2 TDs with no INTs. When teams don’t send the house Allen is 43 of 59 for 347 yards 2 TDs and 3 INTs. (@BUFSportsTalk) Last week Bills RB James Cook surpassed the century mark of rushing yards in a game for the 1st time in his NFL career with 123 yards. Josh Allen has been in the NFL since ‘18 and has only had an RB rush for more than 100 yards 5 times - Shady McCoy once in ‘16, Frank Gore once in ‘19, and Devin Singletary once in ‘19, ‘21, and ‘22. (Source: Week to Week Notes Researching Pro Football Reference) The Commies of Washington are 2-0 and their QB Sam Howell is 3-0 as a starter to start his career. Howell after a so-so Week 1, showed a bit more poise last week. The Commanders also saw the return of their stud pass rusher Chase Young, who hasn’t played much the past two seasons, made his ‘23 debut with a sack and a half. Washington with a healthy Young should be stout enough to get to Allen without blitzing and they’ve only blitzed 25% of the time in 2 games thus far. It should make for a close game but I like the Bills' edging this one out by a TD score.
Prediction: 24-17 BUF (-6.5 BUF & Under 44.5)
CJ Stroud is coming off a 384-yard passing performance in Week 2. The Texans’ rookie QB already has more 300+ passing yard games in the NFL than his former Buckeye teammate Justin Fields who has none. Two Texans WRs should now be on your fantasy football radar. Most people already knew of Nico Collins, who caught a TD and had 146 yards last week, but Week 2 was also a bit of a breakout game for their other young WR Tank Dell. I’ve been rambling about the rookie 3rd Round pick since he was in Houston (University) last fall. Dell is a speedster who should see plenty of targets as the Texans’ season is all about developing Stroud and their young core nucleus. The Jaguars are coming off a tough loss to the Kansas City Chiefs where Sunshine just missed on multiple potential TDs due to his WRs not getting 2 feet down. Jags 3rd year CB, Tyson Campbell is making his case for being a Top 10 CB in the NFL, and will likely be matched up with Nico Collins. Sunshine has already alpha’d Anthony Richardson in Week 1, look for him to piss on another tree to assert dominance over another young buck-led rookie QB in the AFC South.
Prediction: 27-13 JAX (-8.5 JAX & Under 44)
Anthony Richardson has been finding out the hard way that the NFL hits differently than college. The Colts rookie QB has shown flashed signs that he belongs in the pros, but he will need to be a bit more careful when taking punishing blows. He is already in concussion protocol after exiting Week 2’s game on a hit after scoring a TD. If Richardson can’t go, Former Frat Star, Gardner Minshew, will be starting in his place. With RB Jonathan Taylor still on the PUP and actively seeking a trade, the Colts have turned to Zack Moss as their RB1. I thought Zack Moss was a bit of a boring back until I heard this week he is cousins with Santana Moss. That changes everything, now I view his cuts and jukes as electric. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was asked how it feels for Anthony Richardson to compare himself to Jackson and Cam Newton. Jackson joked, “It makes me feel. I’m only 26. Comparing yourself to me. Damn. I’m still young.” With or without Richardson, the Ravens at home should win this.
Prediction: 11- 3 BAL (-7.5 BAL & Under 44)
The leading target-getter for the Atlanta Falcons out of their WR and TE room is Mack Hollins with 10. They have only thrown the ball toward Drake London 9 times and Kyle Pitts 8 times in 2 games. Hollins is a 30-year-old journeyman WR, but whatever I don’t want to sound like I’m moaning and complaining about how Arthur Smith hates Kyle Pitts because I have him in fantasy. At least Bijan Robinson leads them in catches, although I’m scared of what is going to happen to him because I’m using his cool GIF (below) from his run against the Packers last week. Why am I paranoid about such a thing? Well, I clearly jinxed Jared Goff into throwing an interception last week after he had gone 384 throws without one. His Pick 6 throw in the 4th quarter put last week’s game in Detroit out of reach. One thing to monitor this weekend is if the Lions will have their star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. ARSB was limited in practice on Thursday as he is likely dealing with a turf toe. The other Lions' starting weapon dealing with an injury is their RB David Montgomery, who has a thigh. This could mean the Lions will feature more of Jahmyr Gibbs. Bijan vs. Gibbs should be a fun one.
Prediction: 31-26 DET (-3.5 DET & Over 45.5)
The San Diego Chargers and Minnesota Vikings are battling it out for the title of most talented team to start the ‘23 season 0-3. Since ‘02, 99 teams have started 0-3. Just one of those teams, the Texans in ‘18, has made it to the playoffs. (ESPN) While the number of playoff teams has expanded over the past few years, you’re playing with fire starting 0-3. Speaking of fire, both of these teams’ coaches are a bit on the hot seat. Chargers’ Brandon Staley and to a lesser degree Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell are actually close friends who coached together for the Rams in ‘20. They were so close that their kids homeschooled together during the pandemic. Neither team has played a lick of defense so far this year, so it makes sense why this game has the highest over/under points total. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has been dealing with an ankle so there is a good chance he’s out this week, but of course, I’m taking the Chargers.
Prediction: 34-32 LAC (-1 LAC & Over 54)
The Saints’ defense is elite. They currently have not allowed 20 or more points in a game in 10 straight. I may have misunderestimated them due to the fact that I will always look at the Saints as a fun high-scoring team where Drew Brees throws for a gazillion yards. Drew Brees ain’t walking through that door (in pads, he was at the last Monday Night Game) so their identity is a bit different now and that’s a me problem. One former Drew Brees teammate who is in the midst of a bit of a comeback is WR Michael Thomas. While the record holder for catches in the season may not be in his ‘19 form, Thomas thus far has been healthy and making plays. I’m interested in seeing if Thomas or Chris Olave commands Packers CB1 Jaire Alexander. The Packers are coming off a close loss to the Falcons last week, but thus far Jordan Love has played great. This will be Love’s Lambeau Home Opener so it could be pretty special, which is why I’m anticipating Green Bay to break the Saints 20 points or less streak and pull out a victory.
Prediction: 23-20 GB (-2 GB & Under 43.5)
The Tennessee Titans snapped an 8 game losing streak last week when they beat the Chargers at home. They got the win on the back of their workhorse RB Derrick Henry who had 25 rush attempts. Including his playoff games, this was the 44th time that Henry had run the ball at least 20 times in a game. You don’t really see that too often in today’s passing league, but there was a time in the NFL when Henry’s rush attempts would’ve looked pedestrian. For instance, former Houston Oiler (what the Titans used to be called before Tennessee) Earl Campbell played in 13 fewer games in his career than Derrick Henry and yet Campbell carried the ball over 200 more times than Henry in that span. Nonetheless, Derrick Henry is a modern RB workhorse and he was set to face off against a fellow modern RB workhorse in Browns RB Nick Chubb until the Browns star tragically suffered a gruesome knee injury on Monday Night. Chubb will be out the rest of the season and faces a brutal uphill climb just to ever play football again. Derrick Henry himself is also questionable for Sunday with a possible turf toe. The running back position is brutal. While Deshaun Watson has been pretty terrible as a Brown, there is no way I take Tannehill over him in a game.
Prediction: 14-9 CLE (-3 CLE & Under 39.5)
4 PM Slate
It looks like the Carolina Panthers’ #1 Overall Pick from this previous draft, Bryce Young, will miss his first NFL game. Young missed practice on Thursday and is doubtful on Sunday. He has an ankle. He also was a bit out of sorts at one point on Monday Night Football as he made the classic young QB mistake of lining up behind the guard instead of the center on National TV. With Andy Dalton set to start in the place of Young, I like Seattle in this one. Seahawks QB Geno Smith had a nice game against the Lions last week, throwing for 328 yards and 2 TDs to Tyler Lockett. There is a shot he is without his stud WR DK Metcalf who is dealing with ribs, but that may just mean more targets for their rookie 1st Round WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN thus far in 2 games has shown that he can separate from DBs in the NFL, averaging 4.6 yards of separation on every route he’s run - good for 4th in the entire league.
Prediction: 18-8 SEA (-6 SEA & Under 42)
When the Cowboys’ Micah Parsons is on, it looks like nobody in the NFL can stop him. After recording one sack & 2 QB hits against the Giants in Week 1, Parson absolutely dominated the Jets in Week 2 with 2 sacks & 4 QB hits. It is incredible that this guy was taken with the 12th overall pick, but if you recall, Parsons as a prospect was seen as more of a traditional stand-up middle linebacker who rushed the passer on occasion. It wasn’t until the Cowboys’ DC Dan Quinn was forced into using Parsons as an every-down pass rusher that Dallas finally knew what they had. A new thing about Parsons now is that after every sack he now does a Cowboys Crawl for his celebration. Expect a Cowboy Crawl or two against the Cardinals.
Prediction: 25-7 DAL (-12 DAL & Under 43.5)
What a crazy week for the Chicago Bears. For starters, QB Justin Fields started the week insinuating that his mental lapses on the field like not seeing wide-open WRs for TDs are from too much game planning. “I wasn’t playing my game. I was playing robotic. My goal this week is to just say F-It and play football how I know how to. That includes thinking less and going off of instincts rather than so much info or data in my head.” While the quote makes sense to an extent, that would drive me crazy as a Bears fan because it comes across like he’s throwing the coaches under the bus. Fields would later readdress the media and take full responsibility, “I don’t care what happens in the game. I will take all the blame.” This would normally be huge news for a QB to not just give the same robotic answers, but then an FBI Raid happened at the Bears DC Alan Williams’ house. None of the reporters in the NFL have enough detail to explain what exactly is going on in this situation. All we know is Alan Williams has resigned as DC for the Bears. Bears head coach Matt Eberflus refuses to even talk to his team about the resignation of Williams. When the likes of Adam&Ian on Twitter don’t want to report on rumors then you know something went down and it wasn’t good. As for the Chiefs, they’ll handle the Bears on Sunday.
Prediction: 28-12 KC (-13 KC & Under 48)
Prime Time
Sunday Scaries
The Pittsburgh Steelers gutted out a Week 2 win over the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers scored 2 defensive TDs on Monday Night and LB Alex Highsmith was involved in both. Highsmith was named Defensive Player of the Week. The Steelers placed WR Diontae Johnson on the IR right before Monday Night Football so he will be out with a hamstring for at the very least 4 weeks. This should be time for Pittsburgh to feed George Pickens, who for the first time in his career saw 10 targets, and he finished with 4 catches for 127 yards with a TD. Pickens’ TD was from 71 yards out so it was a bit flukey but the immense talent was on display. Some in the NFL media such as Mike Florio are speculating that the Steelers will purposely keep Pickens out of their game plans so that they won’t have to pay him one day. What a ridiculous theory. I saw that on the internet and immediately thought thank goodness I now get to come up with my own conspiracies. The Las Vegas Raiders got both their top WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers back to practice yesterday after they were in concussion protocol. I’m sure Adams will get his, the guy is a walking bucket, but I think the Steelers' defense alone can win them games against the likes of Vegas.
Prediction: 6-0 PIT (+2.5 PIT & Under 43.5)
Moody Mondays
The Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccanneers have played each other quite a few times since the NFC Championship Game of ‘03 (the ‘02 NFL Season), but that’s the first game I think of between these two teams. Donovan McNabb. Brian Dawkins. Warren Sapp. Keyshawn Johnson. John Lynch. Mike Alstott. Ronde Barber. Simeon Rice. Derrick Brooks. Jon Gruden. Some real NFL legends. The Bucs won that game 27-10 and would go on to win the Super Bowl by beating the Rich Gannon-led Raiders. This has nothing to do with this Monday Night matchup, I just wonder how long into the game before they mention Ronde Barber? Both of these ‘23 teams are 2-0. I’m not surprised in the slightest about the Philadelphia Eagles. Tampa Bay, I thought they were going to be bad, but I’ve always been biased against Baker Mayfield ever since his NFL Debut destroyed Darnold & the Jets on National TV. Mayfield on a team of veterans who have experienced success but get overlooked makes some sense, but c’mon I’m still taking the Eagles by a TD here.
Prediction: 22-12 PHI (-5.5 PHI & Under 46)
A rematch of the seemingly already-forgotten Super Bowl LVI. This will be an interesting matchup a year and a half later. For the Rams, they are 1-1 with a decisive victory over Seattle and a tight loss to the 49ers. They have been without their star WR Cooper Kupp, but they may found a new guy in rookie WR Puka Nacua out of BYU. Nacua is coming off a Week 2 where he caught 15 balls for 147 yards, which is after an NFL debut where he just 10 catches for 119 yards. If Cooper Kupp can make it back on the field by midseason and Matthew Stafford can stay upright, the Rams will have a real shot at being contenders again. A WR core of Kupp, Nacua, and Tutu Atwell could be very special. As for the Bengals, their explosive offense seems to have exploded thanks to Joey B Cool Burrow’s calf which exploded in the preseason. Burrow seriously looks rusty and is actually questionable for Monday’s game. Don’t mind the baseball score prediction, I’m sure they’ll score some TDs, but I think Burrow guts out a victory on one leg and I’m hedging it by taking the under just in case the Bengals have to start Jake Browning.
Prediction: 5-2 CIN (-2 CIN & Under 44)
YouTube Rabbithole
Goo Goo Dolls - Name - Sound FX 1995 (1st Performance)