Simple Man by Lynyrd Skynyrd is today’s tune on this fine Football Friday as we somehow close out the ‘23 NFL regular season. After two years of tackling every game of the NFL regular season, while it is a bit of a bear, I’m already looking forward to ‘24. Writing about football is the best.
I grew up in a household where my dad thankfully put Free Bird on in the background all the time on CD (or was it cassette?) so even though this is Week to Week Notes’ first rodeo with Lynyrd Skynyrd, I’ve heard them plenty in the past. Lynyrd Skynyrd’s lead singer, Ronnie Van Zant, and guitarist, Gary Rossington, wrote Simple Man in tribute to Van Zant’s grandmother and Rossington’s mother, as they both had passed away around the same time. Van Zant and Rossington started telling stories about the women who raised them and they were able to write this tune in about an hour. Rossington said, “We just put down in a song what our mama or grandma had said to us. They really wrote it, we just played it." (Source: SongFacts)
My mudder is an absolute saint…hopefully, she doesn’t kill me for posting this though!
With Week to Week Notes, I’ll admit sometimes I gotta be a bit extra, but honestly, all I’m trying to be is a simple man.
Patience is a man’s best virtue. Whether it be about building relationships, going to the gym, writing a book, starting a business, practicing a sport, playing an instrument, or learning something new, you’re almost always better off taking it easy and falling in love with the process rather than just worrying about the result. Some of the problems you’re going through today may be insignificant a year from now and even when you get through them, you’re always going to be confronted with new ones so try not to get too bogged down by the ones you have now. By doing these things, you’re bound to find love, and whether you’re up or down remember to always have hope from up above. That’s my 2 cents on what Verse 2 is about.
I’ll try!
Verse 3 is about how the mother tells her son to not get caught up in temptations. In the long run, it’s better to have character than to sell out on short-term success, whatever they may be. The mother just wants her son to be happy, rather than fall victim to greed.
We live in a complex world, it can almost feel harder to just keep things simple, and remember what’s important. This song is great because every time you hear it you can just turn your brain off, learn more from the lyrics, and listen to the guitar solo…
Sports, music, history, Guinness, with a pen and paper, keep it simple we’ll see where this goes!
This sounds silly but one of my plans this year is to have this be my most listened-to tune of ‘24. My own, personal, case-study.
I love this song. I needed to close out this NFL regular season with one of my favorites.
Let’s talk ball…
Week 18, ‘24
Saturday
At 9-7, the Pittsburgh Steelers secured Mike Tomlin’s non-losing streak another year but essentially must win Saturday if they want any shot at making the playoffs. If Pittsburgh wins, they get into the playoff with a) a Colts-Texans tie b) a Jaguars loss/tie c) a Bills loss. There is also a possibility that if Pittsburgh ties, the Colts-Texans don’t tie, and the Jags lose, somehow that equates to the Steelers getting in. Their rookie pass rusher, Nick Herbig, had a crucial 4th Quarter sack fumble to seal the Steelers win last weekend. Herbig’s 5.1% sack rate per snap is the most effective on the team and better than TJ Watt’s 3.4%. (Steelers Depot) Last weekend, RB Najee Harris sure picked a great time to rush for over 100 yards and score multiple TDs in a game this season. Harris’ 122 rushing yards are the most he’s had in a game since Week 16 in ‘21.
The Baltimore Ravens don’t have much to play for as they have locked up the 1st Round bye. Coach Harbaugh plans on resting the majority of his starters, including QB Lamar Jackson as Tyler Huntley will get his first start of the season. WRs OBJ and Zay Flowers look like they are sitting out. Baltimore’s LB Roquan Smith was named the Ravens’ Walter Payton Man of the Year for his work in his foundation with the mission to strengthen families by providing programs and services focused on parenting, vocational training, behavioral health, and financial literacy. Despite the Ravens people, there is no love lost between these AFC North opponents, and if the Baltimore players have a shot at knocking their rivals out, I’ll take them with 4 points even with Huntley at QB. That said, I’m rooting for a tie because that would inflict the most chaos in playoff scenarios.
Prediction: 10-10 Tie (+4 BAL & Under 37.5)
The Houston Texans will clinch a playoff spot with a win. A tie or loss and their season is over. Texans’ rookie QB CJ Stroud returned to the field in Week 17 to lead Houston to victory. The Ohio State alum is just 156 passing yards away from becoming the 4th rookie QB to ever reach 4,000 passing yards in a season, joining Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert, Cam Newton, and Jameis Winston. Stroud’s top target this season is former Michigan man, WR Nico Collins, who in year 3 in the NFL made a nice leap. Collins entered this season with 927 career receiving yards and 3 TDs in 24 games. This season Collins already has 1,102 receiving yards with 7 TDs.
When the season first started, the main objective for the Indianapolis Colts was to develop their rookie QB Anthony Richardson while trying to sort out their RB Jonathan Taylor contract situation. Now the Colts are a win away from making the playoffs and if the Jaguars happened to lose, Indy will even win the AFC South. Colts rookie head coach, Shane Steichen, deserves a ton of credit and I’m sure will be considered a Coach of the Year candidate. This Colts offense is middling as they are 19th in passing yards and 13th in rushing yards, yet they are 10th in scoring as they have been opportunistic. On defense, the Colts are 5th in the NFL in team sacks as Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyinbbo, and DeForest Buckner each have at least 7 sacks this season. I’m envisioning another tie, just pure chaos, but the no more tomfoolery with ties here on out.
Prediction: 20-20 Tie (+1 HOU & Under 47.5)
1 PM Slate
The Jacksonville Jaguars can clinch the AFC South with a win. Jacksonville was the AFC South winner last year and has never won the division in back-to-back years. Without Sunshine last weekend, the Jags’ defense pitched a much-needed shutout as pass rushers Josh Allen and Travon Walker combined for 5 sacks. Allen has had a career year with 16.5 sacks this season and is only a half-sack away from being at the top of the NFL leaderboard. When Josh Allen is on, he is unblockable, as last week he tied Lawrence Taylor for the most games in a season with 2.5+ sacks with 4 games.
The Tennessee Titans at 5-11 were eliminated weeks ago and are currently sitting at Pick 7 in the 1st Round. While it may be way too early to start talking about the Titans' draft strategy, they could be faced with a tough decision between drafting a QB if one slides to them at #7 or sticking with Will Levis. I think I’m out on Levis but I’ve been biased against him since the mayo in his coffee stunt he pulled last year. In terms of other offseason moves for the Titans, their leading sack-getter this season is Denico Autry who at 33 years old has had a career year with 11.5 sacks. Autry is set to be a free agent this offseason so he could be a target for a contender come free agency frenzy. I’ll take the Jags.
Prediction: 18-12 JAX (-5 JAX & Under 39.5)
The Minnesota Vikings need another miracle if they want to make the playoffs. Minnesota will need to win and have the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, the Bears beat Green Bay, plus either the Saints or Bucs to lose. That said, the fact that this team after starting off 1-4 and losing their franchise QB even has a chance just shows the roller coaster this team was on. Unfortunately, it looks like it will end in a 4 game-losing streak with Nick Mullens as their starting QB.
The Detroit Lions have won their first NFC North crown since 1993. They can become the #2 seed in the NFC if they win and both Dallas & Philly lose, which ain’t happening. Last Saturday, Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson had his first 3-sack game since Week 2 of last season. Hutchinson is now being labeled a dirty player for how he sacked Dak Prescott as he performed multiple “hip drop tackles” whereas as a defender you launch your upper body at the player while simultaneously letting gravity drop all weight down on your fall. The NFL is considering banning this form of tackle as has become very popular for defenders and puts offensive players at risk of serious injury. I’ll take Detroit.
Prediction: 27-21 DET (-5 DET & Over 46)
The Atlanta Falcons are technically not dead just yet as they need a win and a Bucs loss to make the postseason, however, Week to Week Notes is labeling them dead. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is reportedly “on the shakiest of grounds” according to Mike Garafolo. I say good, that man sabotaged my fantasy football season by not feeding RB Bijan Robinson the ball. I want him out. Now. Don’t even let him coach the team on Sunday. Have FedEx ground ship all his stuff out of Atlanta and put it on his dad’s dime. Nah, I don’t mind Smith, the Falcons despite all the young big names are pretty boring so dumping on him is an easy write-up, bring him back for all I care.
The New Orleans Saints stayed alive after beating the Bucs in Tampa Bay in Week 17. Saints’ TE Juwan Johnson made one helluva tumbling catch and in total caught 8 passes for 90 yards with a TD. The 8 catches were a career-high and before last week he never had more than 67 receiving yards in a game. Johnson is from Stratford, New Jersey, so he probably roots for the Phillies, but he has a pretty cool story in that he was an undrafted free agent in ‘20. He played WR in college, but would not have had the speed to play on the outside in the NFL so he converted to TE by putting on weight. 4 years later, Johnson just had his best career game. I’ll go Saints.
Prediction: 13-9 NO (-3.5 NO & Under 41.5)
The New York Jets will conclude this awful season that was supposed to be filled with such promise in New England. The Jets currently own the 8th pick in the NFL Draft and with a win, there is a decent chance they slide down to the 12th pick. If the Jets lose, there is an unlikely chance they could move up to the 5th pick. This game has no implications on the team’s season but could have a ton on the team’s future. 2 Jets were named to the Pro Bowl as CB Sauce Gardner and DT Q-Ball Williams will once again represent Gang Green for the 2nd consecutive season.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick may be having a full-circle moment. 24 years ago yesterday (January 4th, 2000), Belichick resigned from the New York Jets head coaching position without ever head coaching the team and he did so by signing a napkin. Belichick was the defensive coordinator for the Jets under Bill Parcells and didn’t like the instability the Jets had at ownership as Leon Hess had passed away the year before. Woody Johnson had bought the Jets around the same time as Parcells was calling it quits on the sidelines and Belichick was foisted the role. Now 24 years and 6 Super Bowls later, it’s tough to question that he made the right decision. Very big of me to admit that. With the uncertainty around Belichick’s future with New England, let’s hope the Patriot players are well-enthused to win one for the coach so that the Evil Hoodie can’t gift New England their next franchise QB on his way out the door.
Prediction: 2-0 NYJ (+2.5 NYJ & Under 31)
The Tampa Bay Bucs are in control of their own destiny as a win and they are in. They made things a bit difficult on themselves by losing to New Orleans last week, but luckily they now take on the Panthers. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is dealing with injured ribs but was able to practice in a limited capacity this week in preparation for this must-win matchup. Tampa Bay’s S Antoine Winfield Jr. was snubbed by fan voting from the Pro Bowl as his 117 tackles, 5 sacks, 12 pass deflections, 3 interceptions, and 5 forced fumbles couldn’t get him in. He’ll probably replace somebody who doesn’t want to go and make the All-Pro team so not a big deal.
Carolina Panthers owner, David Tepper, was fined $300,000 for tossing his drink at a fan. The man is worth around $20,600,000,000 so I think he can pick up the tab. Tepper may not have made a wise investment in trading up to #1 overall for QB Bryce Young last year as the Panthers have gifted the Chicago Bears the #1 overall pick this season. Tampa Bay needs it.
Prediction: 22-16 TB (-5 TB & Over 37.5)
The Cleveland Browns have already bought their playoff ticket and will have former Bengals QB Jeff Driskel start in place of Joe Flacco. Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett has only had 1 sack in his last 5 games.
The Cincinnati Bengals were eliminated from playoff contention. Former Bengals owner, Paul Brown, actually coached the Cleveland Browns before starting Cincinnati’s franchise. His last name is also why they are called the Browns after he didn’t like the name “Cleveland Panthers” in 1945. I’ll go with the Bengals for the hell of it.
Prediction: 12-4 CIN (-5 CIN & Under 38.5)
4 PM Slate
Da Bears will have a shot at redeeming their once-proud franchise this offseason. They currently own not only the #1 overall pick but the #10 as well. Chicago will have to decide if they believe QB Justin Fields is the answer or not. There were murmurs that Fields could be a possible Jets backup QB target via trade, but I don’t buy it.
If Green Bay wins, they get into the playoffs. In his first year as the starter, QB Jordan Love has done the unthinkable, throwing more TDs and fewer INTs than his predecessors Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. Unbelievable. Can’t see them losing in Lambeau so, Go Pack Go!
Prediction: 26-22 GB (-3 GB & Over 44)
The Dallas Cowboys are playing to lock up the #2 Seed in the NFC. QB Dak Prescott will also be hoping to extend his passing TDs lead as his 32 lead all of the NFL. WR CeeDee Lamb also has a shot at overtaking Tyreek Hill on top of the receiving yards leaderboard as he only trails him by 66 yards entering Sunday.
The Commanders currently own the #2 overall pick and they will almost certainly be a QB even though Sam Howell has thrown for 3,793 yards this season. Howell may just be a borderline starter in this league throwing up stats but for context, only Joe Namath (4,007), Ryan Fitzpatrick (3,905), and Ken O’Brien (3,888) have thrown more passing yards in a single season in the entire Jets’ franchise history. Dallas is going to win, just not sure if they cover.
Prediction: 28-14 DAL (-13 DAL & Under 44)
The Denver Broncos currently hold the #14 pick in the NFL Draft and are cutting ties with QB Russell Wilson after the season. That sounds like QB Hell for at least another year.
The Las Vegas Raiders have a decision to make this offseason on whether they should make interim head coach Antonio Pierce their full-time guy. Under Josh McDaniels, the Raiders were 3-5 and a bit boring. Pierce brought some juice when as soon as he took over he benched Jimmy G. The players seem to like AP and he went 4-4 thus far. I would expect the Raiders to be playing hard for their coach on Sunday so they can bring him back.
Prediction: 15-6 LV (-2.5 LV & Under 38)
I bumped into Eagles fan insider on the 126 bus ride home on Wednesday. He is pissed about the Eagles’ recent struggles. Did they peak too early in the season? Head coach Nick Sirianni has hinted that the team will be scoreboard-watching the Cowboys game. If Dallas gets up early, they’ll start resting their guys.
Even though Tyrod Taylor threw for 319 yards and almost beat the Rams last week, I stand with Tommy D. The Giants enter the offseason with some questions like what they should do with Saquon Barkley. He’ll be a free agent and entering his age-27 season as an RB. Philly will right the ship.
Prediction: 17-11 PHI (-5 PHI & Under 41.5)
The Seattle Seahawks can make the playoffs with a win and a Green Bay loss. Last week’s loss to the Steelers at home was a killer. Pete Carroll will be chomping his gum at the bit while watching the Green Bay score. Seattle placed LBer Jamal Adams on IR to end his season and it sounds like he will be back with the team next year. After Sunday, Adams will have missed 33 of a possible 67 games as a Seahawk.
The Arizona Cardinals were the scrappiest bad team in football. Right now, they hold the #4 overall pick in the NFL Draft. For their future, a loss to Seattle and the Patriots win is their most likely positive scenario, which would net them the #3 overall pick.
Prediction: 24-19 SEA (-3 SEA & Under 48)
The LA Rams clinched the playoffs last weekend and will have Carson Wentz start this game. The Rams don’t have much to play for because they’ll be facing either the Lions, Cowboys, or Eagles on the road next week.
The 49ers have also clinched the #1 seed in the NFC and a bye. San Francisco will be starting rumored Jets free agent target this offseason, Sam Darnold. (Source: Week to Week Notes) 49ers QB1 Brock Purdy became the 1st Niners’ QB since Jeff Garcia in ‘02 to be named to the Pro Bowl.
Prediction: 29-25 SF (-3.5 SF & Over 42.5)
Okay, we are 3,250 words into this so I think I can sneak this in. I think Taylor Swift being a part of the NFL has been a good thing. It made the league interesting to a lot of people who otherwise may not have cared. As a sportswriter, I could spew out stats on guys for every one of these games, but it’s fun to switch things up and try to make a storyline. Now, if I wasn’t writing about football would I find the relationship annoying? Yeah, probably, but I also wouldn’t be listening to Simple Man right now.
The Chargers stink. They have lost 4 in a row and hold the #6 pick at the moment. The only reason the Chiefs aren’t favored is because they are resting a bunch of their starters. TE Travis Kelce needs just 16 receiving yards to go 8 straight seasons of 1k yards so I’d expect him to play a series or two to hit that millennium mark and then be done. I’ll take the Chiefs backups over San Diego.
Prediction: 8-3 KC (+2 KC & Under 36)
Sunday Scaries
The Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs for the 5th year in a row and 6th year in 7 years if they can beat the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football. Buffalo can also clinch with a tie or some other weird tiebreakers that I’m sure we’ll know all about come Sunday Night so we’ll worry about it then.
The Dolphins got an ass-whooping against Baltimore last weekend. To make matters worse, they lost their sack leader, Bradley Chubb, as he was playing meaningless 4th Quarter snaps in the blowout. To make matters even worse than worse, WR Tyreek Hill’s house was on fire while he was at practice on Wednesday. Nobody was harmed, but that’s gotta be a distraction. I’ll take the Bills.