Somehow we’ve only got 2 more regular season slates of the NFL so I’ll start off talking ball…
Week 17, ‘23
Thursday Nightcap
- 1st Jets Thursday Night Football Game of ‘23. Only 32 more regular season NFL games left.
- This season flew by.
Quarter 1
- On the opening possession, Browns QB Joe Flacco finds Njoku for 36 yards. A few plays later he hits Njoku again for 8. Browns RB Jerome Ford scores to make it 7-0 CLE.
- On the Jets opening possession, RB Breece Hall is once again their whole offense. He scores to tie it 7-7.
- On the next drive, David Njoku gashes the Jets again. Kareem Hunt scores to make it 13-7.
- The Jets rookie RB Izzy A. fumbles the kickoff. Yikes. Somehow the Jets get the ball back only for QB Trevor Semen to throw a pick-6. 20-7 CLE
Quarter 2
- Browns WR Elijah Moore scored a TD. He was just a Jet last year so of course this was bound to happen. 27-7 CLE
- This thing with the circle icon under the defensive players that Amazon Prime is doing looks like a Madden user playing.
- Jermaine Johnson gets a Pick-6 of his own on a tipped pass. Great play. 27-14 CLE
- The Jets’ defense stinks again, they allow an absurd Jermoe Ford TD. 34-14 CLE
Quarter 3
- Breece Hall starts the 2nd half on a roll only for the drive to stall out. The Jets field goal unit gets a delay of game and then the kick gets blocked. Nice.
Quarter 4
- Cleveland on TV seems like a very cold place right about now.
- Seimen has the Jets offense sticking around but they are failing to finish drives. Another FG to make it 34-20 CLE
- The Jets defense gets a 3-N-Out, alright the boys are showing some life. It would be cool if they could at least cover the +7.5 spread.
- Well, that didn’t work out 37-20 Browns win. Cleveland has clinched an AFC playoff spot. The Jets are now 6-10 with only 1 more week of this brutal season left.
I had the Jets winning 9-7 (+7.5 NYJ & Under 35), yikes, 0-2 to start the Week 17 weekend…
Saturday Night Fever
The Detroit Lions are 11-4 and have clinched the NFC North. It is their first time winning the NFC North since their 1991 team led by RB Barry Sanders. The ‘91 Lions went 12-4, losing in the NFC Championship as Sanders rushed for 1,548 yards. This year’s edition of the Lions has 2 RBs creeping toward the 1,000 yards in a season mark with David Montgomery (910) and Jahmyr Gibbs (872). The Lions have not beaten the Cowboys since ‘13 as Dallas is on a 5-game winning streak in their head-to-head matchup. WR CeeDee Lamb is 2nd in the NFL with receiving yards with 1,424 and 1st in catches with 109. With 2 more solid weeks, Lamb will lock in his 2nd consecutive All-Pro season. On the Dallas defense, pass rusher Micah Parsons and his 13 sacks also have a good shot at once again becoming an All-Pro. Depending on how the NFL classifies Parsons, he could become the 4th LBer in NFL history to start his career as an All-Pro his first 3 consecutive seasons joining Lawrence Taylor, Patrick Willis, and Darius Leonard. The Cowboys still have a bit more to play for as they still have a shot at the NFC East title so we’ll take them over the Lions.
Prediction: 31-24 DAL (-6 DAL & Over 53.5)
1 PM Slate
This AFC matchup will have ramifications on who will have the #1 seed, home-field, and Wild Card Round bye. With their win over Dallas last weekend, Miami now leads the NFL in points scored at 30.9 per game. QB Tua leads the NFL in passing yards this season and RB Raheem Mostert leads the NFL in rushing TDs with 18. Last week Mostert found pay dirt on a Tua pass as he has now scored at least 1 TD in 5 straight games. The Ravens are coming off a major statement win in San Francisco. Going into the season, I’ll admit I was 1 million percent wrong on Baltimore. After a contentious offseason where the Ravens held out wanting to pay Lamar Jackson and the QB missing at least a quarter in each of the last 2 seasons due to injury, I overlooked them. Despite not having eye-popping stats, Jackson is now considered the odds-on favorite for MVP of the season because he’s getting the job done. A 2nd MVP for Lamar Jackson would have him rolling into Canton’s NFL Hall of Fame on roller skates, as the only other players to collect multiple MVPs are Peyton Manning (5), Aaron Rodgers (4), Tom Brady (3), Brett Favre (3), Jim Brown (3), Johnny Unitas (3), Kurt Warner (2), Steve Young (2), Joe Montana (2), and Patrick Mahomes (2). I’ll take the Ravens here but if the Phins can pull this off, will be talking Tua for MVP next?
Prediction: 27-23 BAL (-3.5 BAL & Over 47)
The Niners got embarrassed on Christmas Night, getting nothing but coal. Twitter is now convinced that Brock Purdy is nothing more than a system QB as he threw 4 interceptions for the 1st time in his life (never had a 4 INT game at Iowa State). Purdy’s teammates have his back as Deebo Samuel was willing to defend him by going on “Up & Adams” while calling out Cam Newton for calling Purdy a system QB. Deebo then got catfished by some high schoolers who funny enough used the weird ass fonts that Cam Newton uses on social media. San Francisco’s RB Christian McCaffrey has scored at least 1 TD in 24 of 29 career games as a Niner. Washington will turn to Jacoby Brissett as the team’s starting QB as Sam Howell has been benched. Jets correspondent Rich Cimini has reported that Brissett “is a guy the Jets have had their eye on for a while.” Even on the road, you gotta expect the Niners to get-right right?
Prediction: 17-3 SF (-13.5 SF & Under 49)
The Las Vegas Raiders stunned everybody on Christmas as they defeated the Chiefs to keep their playoff hopes alive. Since Antonio Pierce was named the Raiders interim coach in Week 9, the Raiders “Dark Side Defense” has been elite with 24 sacks, 38 TFLs, 6 INTs, 9 forced fumbles, 4 defensive TDs, and 14.8 PPG allowed. (Source: @CondorSZN) Jack Jones getting a Pick-six in Kansas City and then going up to a little kid Chiefs fan only to fake give him the ball was very Grinch-like. The Colts are currently ahead of Las Vegas in the AFC standings as the #7 seed. Indianapolis will be getting back their WR1 in Michael Pittman Jr. as he was a full participant in practice for the first time since his vicious hit against the Steelers 2 weeks ago. The Colts flopped without him in Atlanta last weekend as no Colts had more than 40 yards. Another member of the Colts offense, RT Braden Smith, was also back practice, the first time he was a full participant all December. I feel like these two teams have played each other 10 times already this season, but it’s their first time playing. The Raiders are 2-5 on the road, so we’ll take the Colts.
Prediction: 22-18 IND (-3 IND & Under 43.5)
The LA Rams have had a nice long break after beating the Saints last Thursday Night. LA has now won 5 out of their last 6 games. G-Men defensive coordinator has had some high praise of Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford, calling him an MVP candidate and saying he is playing at a “Hall of Fame-type level.” Stafford is currently in 11th all-time in career passing yards and will likely pass Eli Manning sometime next year as he’s less than 1,500 yards away. Sadly, it looks like Tommy DeVito’s run as QB1 for the NY Giants is over. The team has handed the ball over to vet QB Tyrod Taylor. Just last week, Tommy D. was dining next to Yankees captain Aaron Judge and #99 ended up paying for his dinner. “When you're up, everybody loves you. When you're down, everybody hates you” was what he told reporters this week. In an awful season for the New York Giants, at least he provided a bit of entertainment, and I for one had fun covering it. Even if he doesn’t make another start for the Giants, this season will likely land him as a career backup QB for at least the next 5+ years, no small feat for an undrafted free agent. On top of that, “Tommy Cutlets” has now been trademarked and the kid plans on pasta, pizza, and tomato sauce. (Source: @JoshGerben) I’ll take the Rams.
Prediction: 14-6 LAR (-6 LAR & Under 42)
Albert Breer reported this week that the Patriot players quit on Mediocre Mac Jones. “The Patriots most certainly haven’t quit on Bill Belichick, but given the way Bailey Zappe has sparked the offense, it’s certainly fair to wonder whether the players had given up on Mac Jones. Jones’ string of bleep-ups in games coincided with similar plays showing up in practice, and while Zappe’s no world-beater, the players at least know what to expect when he’s in there.” This really isn’t how I wanted the season to go for New England. I wanted them to be 7-10 and in QB hell, not ending up with a Top 4 pick. The Bills’ DT Ed Oliver is having a career year with 8.5 sacks, 13 TFL, 14 QB hits, and 44 QB hurries, all career highs. Oliver and the Bills have the 4th best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing only 18.3 points per game. The Patriots only score a league-worst 14.3 points per game. Bills in a blowout.
Prediction: 42-0 BUF (-12 BUF & Over 40.5)
The Titans’ RB Derrick Henry threw his 2nd TD pass of the season this year on a trick play. King Henry now has 5 career passing TDs (including playoffs). After missing last week, the Titans QB1 Will Levis is set to return to the starting lineup. At 5-10, Tennesee has been eliminated from playoff contention and this weekend against their former home in Houston will be looking to play spoiler. As for the Texans, QB CJ Stroud has officially cleared concussion protocol and will be back in the starting lineup as well. The Texans’ passing game has severely struggled the past 3 weeks. Last week, 2nd-year CB Derek Stingley picked off his 5th pass this season and has had 2 pass deflections in back-to-back weeks. Houston will likely be without their DE Jonathan Greenard after he got hurt last weekend against the Browns. Greenard is having a career year with 12.5 sacks and before Week 16 had 5.5 sacks in his last 3 games. Houston needs this game to stay in the playoff hunt.
Prediction: 25-21 HOU (-3.5 HOU & Over 42.5)
The Arizona Cardinals at 3-12 currently hold the #2 Pick in the ‘24 Draft. If things hold the same, it will be very interesting to see if they take a QB or choose to keep Kyler Murray. The Cardinals can’t get out of Murray’s contract until ‘28 so they would need to find a trade partner if they wanted to draft a QB. The option they could go with is to take Marvin Harrison Jr. or trade back for a boatload of picks. Decisions, decisions in Arizona. Philly got back on to their winning ways and are back in the NFC East driver's seat. The Eagles are still competing for the #1 NFC seed as they have the same record as Detroit and San Francisco at 11-4. Philadelphia has been very good this season, but one of the biggest overlooked things between this year’s team and last year’s are the team sacks. Last year, the Eagles had 70 sacks for the season, which is the 2nd most all-time for a team. This year’s Eagles team is middle of the pack in that category with 40. I’ll take Philly.
Prediction: 28-16 PHI (-11 PHI & Under 48.5)
The 7-8 Saints come marching into Tampa Bay to take on the NFC South 1st Place Buccaneers. New Orleans will be without CB Marshon Lattimore, who has a huge on-field rivalry with Bucs WR Mike Evans. Speaking of Mike Evans, the WR has now scored 13 TDs this season and has 94 for his career. Evans has the most career TDs among active NFL players (with 2 more than Davante Adams) and is 12th all-time. With no Lattimore to try to knock him off his game, I’ll go with the Bucs winning and Evans scoring for the 3rd straight week.
Prediction: 26-8 TB (-3 TB & Under 42.5)
The Atlanta Falcons last weekend had a stretch of plays where RB Bijan Robinson broke free for 30+ yards on the ground followed by a 25-yard TD pass to TE Kyle Pitts. Where was this when TD Bank needed it? Sorry I know nobody cares about my 9th-place fantasy football team in League 10965, I’m in 2 championships in my College and Family leagues, so I have to let it go. The Falcons at 7-8 are still in the mix of the NFC South but are not in control of their destiny behind the Bucs and Saints. Da Bears currently have the #1 pick in the NFL Draft thanks to the Carolina Panthers. Chicago will have to decide by May ‘24 if they will keep QB Justin Fields on his 5th-year option or take a QB to start over the process. Last season Chicago had the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 157.3 YPG and now they give up the least at 80.7 rushing yards per game.
Prediction: 20-20 TIE (+3 ATL & Over 38)
The Carolina Panthers offense finally showed some life last weekend as QB Bryce Young had his first 300+ passing-yard game and led the team to 30 points for the 1st time in his career. They still lost, but that’s at least going in the right direction. The Jags QB Trevor Lawrence is once again questionable to play. Now Sunshine has a right AC joint sprain and he hasn’t practiced yet this week. Jacksonville will need a big effort out of their defense, regardless if we see Sunshine or not. The Jags are on a 4 game-losing streak and need this game to right the ship. Their TE Evan Engram needs just 2 more catches this season to reach 100 on the year. Only 7 TEs have ever reached the century mark on catches for a season with Travis Kelce doing so 3 times. Engram will also become the 2nd player in Jaguars history to reach the mark, joining WR Jimmy Smith. I’ll go with Duval.
Prediction: 11-2 JAX (-7 JAX & Under 38)
4 PM Slate
After calling Steelers’ WR George Pickens out a couple of weeks, the 2nd-year WR stood on his business with 4 catches for 195 yards and 2 TDs against Cincinnati. It looks like Pittsburgh will be rolling with QB Mason Rudolph the rest of the way as his 290 passing yards last weekend were the most by any Steeler QB all year. At 8-7, Mike Tomlin either needs a win this week or at Baltimore if he wants to continue his streak of consecutive seasons without a losing record, which would be 17 with a win. The Seahawks have won back-to-back games by the same score of 20-17, with 2 different at the helm. The Seahawks are currently the 7th seed in the NFC so this game is just as crucial to them. Seattle’s WR1 DK Metcalf was added to the injury report with a back. Metcalf has never missed a game in the NFL so I’d expect him out there. Last week, Seahawk LBer Bobby Wagner had a vintage performance of 8 tackles and a sack. Wagner has now completed 10 seasons of at least 120 tackles. At 988 career tackles, Wagner needs just 12 more to become 3rd NFL player with 1,000 career tackles (since they started keeping track). I’ll take Seattle at home.
Prediction: 19-15 SEA (-3.5 SEA & Under 41.5)
The Bengals may have blown their playoff chances last week. QB Jake Browning’s Cinderella story may have ended as he threw 3 INTs to Pittsburgh defenders. There is a chance that the Bengals will get WR Ja’Marr Chase back as he was limited in practice on Thursday. One positive sign for Cincinnati is that WR2 Tee Higgins has started to wake up, with 9 catches for 201 yards and 3 TDs in the last 2 weeks. This past Christmas, Travis Kelce blew up on the Kansas City sideline as he threw his helmet in disgust. Just guys being dudes, we like to break stuff. Kelce needs just 10 more catches this season to reach 100 on the season, it would be his 4th time and he is the only TE to ever have multiple 100+ catch seasons. For the past 2 weeks I’ve been picking Kansas City to blow out their opponents by more than 2 scores, it’s gotta happen this Sunday.
Prediction: 35-12 KC (-7 KC & Over 44)
San Diego put up a valiant effort last Saturday against the Bills. Chargers safety Alohi Gilman had his 1st interception of the season while also forcing a fumble. The 5th year safety from Notre Dame is set to be a free agent this offseason and is enjoying a very solid season with 6 pass deflections and 3 forced fumbles. He could be a nice under-the-radar signing for a team like the Jets. The Denver Broncos have caused a whole fiasco with QB Russell Wilson, as the team has benched him for the remainder of the season. The Broncos demanded that Wilson remove parts of his injury guarantees from his contract after Denver beat the Chiefs in Week 8. When Wilson wouldn’t budge, Denver was pissed and threatened to bench him then, but the team went on a winning streak. Not that I have any inside knowledge on this, but my guess is that head coach Sean Payton is playing NFL Politics here. Payton, who thinks of himself as a Hall of Fame head coach, can cast Wilson as the reason the team didn’t succeed. Once they trade or release him this offseason, Payton then buys himself another year where the Broncos don’t need to be great because they are searching for a QB. Payton signed a 5-year deal with Denver and seems to be one of those coaches who would play the leverage game to get Wilson out while making himself look better. I’m not even really a big Russell Wilson fan, but it does seem like BS after he has had a solid comeback season. I’ll take San Diego in a stinker.
Prediction: 10-5 LAC (+5 LAC & Under 39.5)
Sunday Scaries
With the College Football Semi-Finals on Monday, the NFL’s last game of Week 17 will be Sunday Night. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings are both 7-8 and on the outside of the playoff picture as the #8 & #9 seeds. If the Packers win they have a 55% chance of making the playoffs, while if the Vikings win they get a 50/50 shot. This is due to tiebreakers with other teams and stuff that I can break down next week. The last time these teams both met, Minnesota beat the Packers with Kirk Cousins slinging the ball around in Week 8 in the game that Cousins would tear in Achilles. The last time the Packers played the Vikings while Justin Jefferson was playing was Week 17 of last year and they held the star WR to just 1 catch for 15 yards. Over the offseason, Packers CB Jaire Alexander told reporters, “Jefferson thought he was going to come into Lambeau and griddy, but I was the one griddying.” Recently CBS Sports had Jefferson on to respond and he said, “To be completely honest with you man, this bum can’t guard me. If he’s 1 on 1 with me on Sunday Night I promise you I’m head tapping him for 6.” Nice little trash talk that I’d expect Collinsworth to mention on Sunday Night. I’ll take the Pack.
Prediction: 30-29 GB (+1.5 GB & Over 46)
The story behind today’s tune, Disorder by Joy Division, is that I heard it for the 1st time while watching Season 6 of Peaky Blinders back around April of ‘22. Immediately once I heard it on in the background of the show, I had to ask Siri what the song was because it had such a uniqueness to it. Joy Division was an English rock band that formed in the late 1970s, they were known for post-punk or new wave. The band was only around a few years before tragedy struck their guitarist and lyricist Ian Curtis, who suffered from epilepsy & depression. Curtis passed away right before their North American tour in May 1980. The band would regroup and go on to become New Order.
Cambridge defines the word disorder in 3 ways…
- a state of confusion
- the disruption of peaceful and law-abiding behavior
- an illness or condition that disrupts normal physical or mental functions
The word itself has a vague interpretation. Usually, if I see the word, I think of illness, but with this song in particular I think of chaos or confusion. Since I heard this tune while watching my favorite TV show around the same time that I started writing Week to Week Notes, I also associate it with writing.
While the lyrics to this tune are pretty deep, they also can have multiple interpretations. The song starts with a simple drum beat at a frantic pace. At the 8-second mark, the song becomes chaotic as a bass guitar comes in. The pairing of the instruments sounds a bit confusing and then at the 18-second mark, this disordered mesh of sound starts to make perfect sense.
I can’t describe the feeling that writing gives me once I get in a zone. Throughout the day, just like everybody else, I have millions of thoughts all over the place, sometimes it’s tough to figure out which thoughts to type out. On top of that, I’ve always been a procrastinator with writing, if I ever had a paper or essay due, I’d always do it at midnight the night before. It’s a terrible combination, but I’m sure a bit more common than I’m aware of. Maybe it’s a form of writer’s block of some kind, how the hell should I know?
Anyway, this is going to sound a bit out there but the sound you hear in this song from 0:18 to 0:30 is sorta like what it feels like for me when I can finally get into a zone and just start piecing things together for a Note.
Oftentimes, probably more than I let on, I don’t always know where I’m going to go with the Notes. Of course, I set myself up with themes like music and the different days of the week where I cover sports, Guinness, and history, but usually after procrastinating or feeling overwhelmed, some sort of trance comes over me where things start to click.
The feeling of when I’m able to connect the dots on one of these Notes, I guess it’s okay to admit is not a normal sensation. At least for me, nothing about Week to Week Notes feels normal compared to what I was doing before this.
Then the beauty and letdown of writing is you are only as good as your next piece so I usually have to lose that sensation from my previous Note. Over the last year, I’ve become very numb to insults and luckily I haven’t gotten many at all in quite a while. That said, I’ll admit that the negative feedback that I brought back up during Festivus yesterday did contribute to me working that much harder this past year. Now I think if somebody commented something negative, it just wouldn’t have the same effect. That “f*** you, I’m going to prove you wrong” mindset can only take you so far in life, but it served its purpose this past year.
I interpret the “spirit” as the intuition, or guide that they refer to in the opening line, of when I finally get into a zone and the words start to make some sense. I lose the feeling of whatever may have happened in the past or wherever I may have last left off because I’m on to the next Note for tomorrow’s post.
Like anything, the more you work at something and practice at it, usually, the faster or more efficient you become at it. Writing to me is no different, and in my mind, it’s not like it’s a physical activity where you need a rest day from the gym. Look, I’m not naive, I know I can’t do this every day for the rest of my life but while…
…While I still got the spirit of time, energy, effort, and hope, why wouldn’t I keep pushing myself? I used to be so worried that I’d run out of ideas or thoughts to write about. I’ve never been the sharpest tool in the shed, there will always be a never-ending amount of sports, music, history, and pints of Guinness.
Okay, after doing some research, Verse 3 is apparently about a breakup that Curtis went through. Although it’s melancholy, I’ve never interpreted this tune as a sad song, but a tune about writing. To me, it was just a cool song I heard on my favorite TV show right around the time I started writing Week to Week Notes. Random happenstance.
Well, on a positive note, if you read up until here you at least seem to give somewhat of a damn. Thanks!
That creative spark can come from anywhere. Listening to some songs can get more out of me than others, I’m sure you’re aware of that by now.
Jeez, I know this whole thing probably sounds nuts, but to me, it makes total sense!