Christmas in New York | Week 16, ‘23 | YouTube Rabbithole
Merry Christmas @YouTheReader,
If you don’t celebrate it, then Happy Holidays, or have a good day!
Today’s tune is Christmas in New York by Shilelagh Law.
A little backstory on Shilelagh Law, they are a working man’s band. New York’s Thirtiest Irish Band was born out of the neighborhoods of Yonkers and the Bronx. They started the Irish American band back in the early 90s, playing at local pubs, and just last summer they were anchoring Irish Heritage Night at Citi Field.
While I guess sometimes New York City can get a bad rap, nobody can deny that there is no place like it around Christmastime. It’s special, every year.
Sidenote: I’m sure Shilelagh Law has quite a few favorite pubs for a pint of Guinness like Connolly’s.
This song was written in the aftermath of 9/11 and was released in ‘02.
Shilelagh Law is comprised of 2 members of the FDNY, a recently retired member of the NYPD, a high-school teacher, and a carpenter. They are blue-collar workers who also happened to be excellent musicians and thankfully they were able to write a song about what New York was experiencing during a very emotional time that shouldn’t be forgotten.
One of those tunes you can tell was written from the heart and a great Christmas one at that!
…Let’s talk ball…
Week 16, ‘23
Thursday Nightcap
New Orleans Saints 22 | Los Angeles Rams 30
The LA Rams from the get-go were in control of this game. Matthew Stafford hit Puka Nacua for a 2-yard TD on 4th & Goal to cap a 14-play and 95-yard drive on LA’s first possession. Nacua was unguardable tonight, catching 9 passes for 164 yards. Demarcus Robinson also stepped up for the Rams as he hauled in 6 catches for 82 and a score. Robinson has now scored a TD in 4 consecutive games. On the ground Kyren Williams had 104 yards and score, it was his 6th straight game of 88+ rushing yards.
I thought this game was over as soon as Old Tappan’s Jordan Fuller made a nice read on his 1st interception of the season. The Saints tried to hang around, but their offense was essentially just 2 long passing plays and some 4th Quarter yards while the Rams were up 2 scores. The LA Rams are now 8-7 and currently would be the 6th Seed as an NFC Wild Card. The Saints are now down a game in the loss column to the Bucs and Tampa Bay currently has the tiebreaker.
I had the Rams winning this 26-19 (-4 LAR & Over 44.5) so we’re 2-0 heading into Christmas ‘23 weekend…
Saturday Slate
Saturday’s doubleheader starts with a pivotal AFC North matchup. Both of these teams are heading in opposite directions as the Bengals have won 3 in a row while the Steelers have lost 3 consecutive. Last week Bengals QB Jake Browning got off to a slow start, throwing for only 140 passing through 3 quarters before ripping off a 140-yard passing performance in the 4th Quarter. Browning has become one of the league’s best stories, as he defeated the Vikings, a team that had previously cut him 3 times from their practice squad. After the latest instance that he was cut by Minnesota back in ‘21, Browning, then 25, thought his NFL dreams were over. He would sign onto the Bengals practice squad and 2 years later he just beat the team that cut him. The Pittsburgh Steelers are in disarray right now as head coach Mike Tomlin will turn over the keys to Mason Rudolph. The 3rd-string QB hasn’t started a game since Week 10 of the ‘21 season while he filled in for Big Ben. The Steelers’ offense this year has been terrible, averaging only 15.9 points per game. Pittsburgh hasn’t put up over 20 points in a game since Week 10 this season. The one thing the Steelers have going for them is that they did beat Browning and the Bengals in Week 12, but as stated, these two teams have been on two different trajectories ever since.
Prediction: 18-15 CIN (-2 CIN & Under 37.5)
The Buffalo Bills took care of business at home last week against Dallas. RB James Cook had a career game as he won the Week 15 AFC Player of the Week for his 2 TDs with 179 rushing yards and 42 receiving yards performance. Cook became the 3rd Bills player in the last 30 years to have over 200+ total yards, joining the likes of WR Lee Evens and RB Fred Jackson. Dalvin’s younger brother has become a force ever since the Bills turned to Joe Brady as their OC as Cook has averaged 21.8 touches and 5.2 yards per carry ever since the change in Week 11. For back-to-back weeks now, Buffalo’s defense has played great holding Kansas City and Dallas to just 27 total points. This will be the first game of the Giff Smith era for the San Diego Chargers as the team fired former head coach Brandon Staley for doing hot yoga on the field during pregame last week. The most significant thing about this game is that it will be aired on Peacock and for the first time in NFL history there will be zero 4th Quarter commercials as NBC is preparing for an additional 12 minutes of game-related content rather than making us all watch prescription drug advertisements that we should consult with our doctor with before taking.
Prediction: 31-7 BUF (-10.5 BUF & Under 42.5)
1 PM Slate
The Detroit Lions got themselves a special talent in TE Sam LaPorta. He became the first rookie TE to have 50+ yards receiving and 3 TDs since Rob Gronkowski did it back in ‘10. LaPorta also became just the 3rd TE in NFL history to have 700+ receiving yards and 7 TDs as a rookie, joining the likes of John Mackey (one of Johnny Unitas’ top targets) and Mike Ditka. Vikings’ QB Nick Mullens will get his 2nd straight start after taking over for Josh Dobbs. Mullens found rookie WR Jordan Addison 6 times for 111 yards and 2 TDs. Addison now has 9 receiving TDs on the season, good for 4th in the NFL. I’ve missed on 4 of the last 5 Detroit Lions spreads as I can’t figure them out. This week I think they roar.
Prediction: 28-24 DET (-3 DET & Over 47)
The Green Bay Packers after their loss last week dropped 4 spots in the NFC Wild Card race. At 6-8, they will need to win out if they want any hope of playing postseason ball. The Packers allowing 34 points at home was a stunner, but don’t be surprised if this Panthers offense rights their ship as only the Patriots, Giants, and Jets score less than their 14.7 points per game. Expect the Panthers to continue to battle defensively as they ranked 3rd in the NFL in the least amount of yards allowed per game (291.6). One of the unsung Panthers’ defenders is S Xavier Woods who last weekend had a pivotal interception off Desmond Ridder in the red zone. Woods has an 82.1 overall PFF grade this season and could be a possible trade candidate on a 1-year deal next year in his age 29 season. I’m surprised this game isn’t a full TD spread, the Packers have something to play for.
Prediction: 25-12 GB (-5 GB & Over 36.5)
Indy WR Michael Pittman took a scary hit to the head last Saturday. The Colts’ top WR was in concussion protocol this week but was able to practice on Thursday alongside RB Jonathan Taylor, who is returning from in-season thumb surgery. The fact that both of these guys will be back in the lineup so soon shows the team can smell the playoffs. At 8-6, if the Colts win this game they have a 71% chance at making the playoffs the rest of the way. The Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith was teary-eyed in his post-game press conference after losing to the Panthers last week. Falcons owner, Arthur Blank after the loss told Jeff Hullinger, "We're gonna play these last three games; we play 'em to win 'em. And we'll let the season play out and go from there. Obviously, this has not been the kind of year we expected." I don’t know what Blank must’ve expected as Smith was 14-20 entering this season as Atlanta’s head coach. Smith, whose background is on offense as he was the OC for the Titans before ATL, has never coached a passing offense ranked above 16th in the NFL. His style of play worked when he had Derrick Henry and for whatever reason he has chosen not to feed Bijan Robinson, which made me teary-eyed in fantasy football. The Colts should win this game.
Prediction: 27-5 IND (-2.5 IND & Under 44)
The 9-5 Cleveland Browns will take on the 8-6 Houston Texans. Cleveland with a win will clinch the playoffs for the 1st time since ‘20 and only the 2nd time since ‘02. After dominating the Browns throughout his career to an 18-3 record, QB Joe Flacco is now 2-1 for Cleveland. Browns WR Amari Cooper needs just 15 receiving yards to reach 1,000 yards this season. If Cooper can get it done, he will become the 1st Cleveland Brown ever to have back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons. It’s too bad Braylon Edwards didn’t have a QB and Josh Gordon couldn’t lay off the weed, or else those two would’ve done it before Cooper. Houston’s star rookie QB CJ Stroud is still in concussion protocol after missing last Sunday. The Texans pulled a fast one on us last week when they started vet QB Case Keenum over Davis Mills. Keenum will likely get another shot this weekend once Stroud is confirmed out. Joe Flacco vs Case Keenum, just like we drew it up! While the Browns haven’t played well away from Cleveland this year (2-4 on the road), I think they figure it out.
Prediction: 14-12 CLE (+2.5 CLE & Under 42.5)
Washington has the worst defense in the NFL, allowing 384.5 yards per game. The Jets have the worst offense in the NFL, averaging a league-worst 255.1 yards per game. Something has got to give.
Prediction: 6-2 NYJ (-3 NYJ & Under 38)
The Seattle Seahawks lifted themselves off the mat last Monday Night in their willing over Philly. Their QB situation last week was quite peculiar, as Geno Smith was a game-time decision who ultimately was ruled out by his head coach Pete Carroll. Backup QB Drew Lock got the start and had a 10-play, 92-yard drive to lead the Seahawks 4th Quarter comeback. The key plays to the Lock-led drive were him hitting DK Metcalf on 3 & 10 for 34 yards, a helluva contested catch by Metcalf. 3 plays later on another 3 & 10, Lock found rookie WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Seattle finally took the lead with 0:28 seconds to play. A win this weekend would give Seattle a 70% shot at making the playoffs as they are currently 8th in the NFC. Geno Smith has been practicing this week, but no definitive decision yet has been made on who will start. The Titans RB Derrick Henry had a rough Week 15 as he averaged a career-low 0.56 yards per carry, going 16 carries for 9 yards. Henry also had 4 catches for 1 receiving yard. He became the first player in NFL history to have 20 touches and generate less than 15 total yards. The other minor news story about this game is that Seahawk LBer Jamal Adams has been away from the team for over a week, he’s probably on Twitter. Hopefully, if Adams plays King Henry has one last stiff arm in him, but I got the Seahawks winning in Nashville.
Prediction: 13-9 SEA (-2.5 SEA & Under 42)
4 PM Slate
Jacksonville’s QB Trevor “Sunshine” Lawrence will likely be out on Sunday as he is in concussion protocol. Sunshine has never missed a game due to injury in the NFL, college, or even high school. The Jags are preparing to go with CJ Beathard, who hasn’t started a game since he was with the 49ers in ‘20. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield threw for a whopping 381 passing yards and 4 TDs last Sunday in Lambeau. It was the 2nd most passing yards Mayfield has thrown in his career and 3rd time he threw 4 TDs with no interceptions. RB Rachaad White continues to dominate down the stretch, as White has now scored at least 1 TD in 6 of his last 7 games, and even in the 1 game that he didn’t find pay dirt, he rushed for 100 yards. With the Saints’ loss on Thursday, Tampa Bay is in sole possession of 1st place in the NFC South. I think they add to their lead this weekend.
Prediction: 20-20 TIE (+1 TB & Under 43.5)
This matchup between two 10-win teams is the best game on Christmas Eve. The Dallas Cowboys had a rough game in Buffalo and now will travel down to Miami another AFC East foe. QB Dak Prescott looked human as he threw for only 134 passing with 1 INT and no TDs. While the weather may have been a bit of a factor Buffalo, it shouldn’t be in sunny Miami. The Phins expect to have WR Tyreek Hill back in the lineup after it’s been reported that he will have his 3rd child this year with 3rd different woman. While Hill was out, Phins Jaylen Waddle made up for his absence as he caught 8 passes for 142 yards with one of them being a 60-yard TD. Miami’s RB1 Raheem Mostert also scored 2 TDs on the ground last week, which brought his total on the season up to 18, which is currently good for 15th best in single-season history. I’m rooting for Dallas here.
Prediction: 30-29 DAL (+1.5 DAL & Over 51.5)
In a season where neither of these teams will make the playoffs, there are some silver linings for both squads. Arizona has found something with TE Trey McBride, who last week had 102 yards receiving. Since Week 6, the 2nd year 2nd Round TE has had 6 games of 60 or more receiving yards. McBride was a target monster at Colorado State, catching 90 passes his senior season. When the Chicago Bears traded for pass rusher Montez Sweat, it may not have been a bit of a headscratcher given that Chicago was well out of playoff contention. The trade deadline trade is looking like a winner for them now as Sweat has transformed their defense. In 6 games with Da Bears, Sweat has 6 sacks, including 3 last week on Joe Flacco. This offseason Chicago will likely franchise-tag and then try to lock up Montez Sweat to a long-term deal. Da Bears because this is in Chi-Town.
Prediction: 16-8 CHI (-4 CHI & Under 44.5)
Prime Time
Sunday Scaries
New England Patriots Evil Hoodie wanted to talk to Travis Kelce after the Chiefs beat the Pats. Do you think he was asking him about Taylor Swift? While we at Week to Week Notes have nothing to report on in terms of where Belichick will be coaching next season, Kelce did tell reporters, “I got a feeling that guy has some football left in him.” Must’ve been the firm handshake and pat on the back. The Denver Broncos stood no chance against the Lions. I didn’t think of that, of course, a lion could kill a horse, I should’ve known. Despite being 7-7, Denver is currently in the 11th spot in the AFC and needs a win if they want any chance at the postseason.
Prediction: 11-0 DEN (-6.5 DEN & Under 34)
Christmas Monday
The evolution of Taylor Swift’s football fandom this season has got to be a top 5 storyline. In Week 4, no way she’d be screaming “Fuck!” at a 50/50 pass interference call. Now she’ll be spending her Christmas Day in a booth in Kansas City rooting for the demise of AOC. I did not have this on my bingo card entering the season. Chiefs at home, I’m not overthinking this one.
Prediction: 17-3 KC (-10 KC & Under 41.5)
This week there was a misunderstanding between Tommy DeVito’s crew and Coniglio’s Pizza in Morristown. Tommy D’s agent, Sean Stellato, dropped the bag in this one as he wasn’t able to shakedown the local pizza joint. TD took matters into his own hands as he broke bread with Coniglio’s Pizza. My sources are saying he gave the Guinness 7.1 and he failed the Guinness Challenge because it’sone sip, everybody knows the rules. As far as the prujoot, regoat, and mutz, he recommends them all along with the pizza. The Eagles are on a 3-game-losing streak but have already clinched their ticket into the postseason. Right now, Dallas is technically in 1st Place in the NFC East and would be the #2 Seed. Philly has not lost 4 games in a row since Weeks 10 to 13 in ‘20, which got Carson Wentz benched for Jalen Hurts. I don’t see Hurts getting benched or the Eagles losing at home.
Prediction: 21-10 PHI (-10.5 PHI & Under 43)
The very last present under the tree this Christmas is a battle between the 2 current #1 Seeds in the NFL. Baltimore is on a 4 game winning streak, which is impressive, sure, but their DT Justin Madubuike is on a heater of his own. Madubuike has recorded at least 0.5 a sack in 11 straight games, an NFL record. For those wondering what half a sack means, it’s when two defenders clobber the QB at the same time rather than just the one guy. Offensively the Ravens are getting it done, but just lost rookie RB Keaton Mitchell for the season with a knee injury. TE Isiah Likely will likely need to continue to step up, he has now scored in back-to-back games. The 49ers are unbelievable again. After their midseason 3-game skid, the 49ers have now won 6 in a row with 5 of those games against teams with .500 or above records. Niners’ QB Brock Purdy now leads the NFL in passing TDs with 29 and also leads the NFL in QBR with a clean 76.0 score. During this 6 game-winning streak, the 2nd year QB has thrown 17 TDs with just 2 INTs and is playing well above the label of “system QB.” All of that said, I’d expect this game to be close and so I’ll take Baltimore if you’re giving them 5.5 points.