Love You For A Long Time | Week 12, ‘23 | YouTube Rabbithole
Alright @YouTheReader,
Maggie Roger’s Love You for a Long Time is a soft rock tune and a favorite of mine. Anyway, I got kinda sorta an announcement to make.
Not quite Snoop Dogg’s Drop It Like It’s Hot intro but I really like this one too.
Last night on November 23, ‘23, with 1:05 left in the 2nd Quarter of the Niners-Seahawks game, I became an uncle. One minute you’re @MaggieDavisHair’s big brother and before you know it she’s giving birth to a baby boy. Wild stuff. The older you get, it’s obviously awesome to see people you grew up with start their own families but when it’s in your own family it obviously hits differently.
This lil guy was due this past Sunday. I had plans to use this song for last week’s Stumblin’ Along, instead, I had to go on rambling about coffee. What a jackass.
*Tom, did you just call your 1-day old nephew a jackass?!?!?*
Yes. Indeed. I did. Week to Week Notes is on a tight schedule. He and I had plans to hit the parks of Hoboken to pick up women this weekend and now he’s just sleeping in the hospital. Not for nothing, but when I adopted Decker, he stayed up with the boys drinking beers with us until around midnight before passing out. Granted, Decker was 2 months old when I rescued him, but still what a bore.
On a serious Note, it’s very cool to have a nephew and Maggie is doing well. I was blessed with some great uncles and I can only try my best to be that for him.
Enough about him, let’s talk ball….
Week 12, ‘23
Quick Thanksgiving Recap
Green Bay Packers 29 | Detroit Lions 22
I had the Lions winning 24-16 (-7.5 DET & Under 47.5), so Thanksgiving started off 0-2. I knew I was cooked as soon as I saw Jared Goff’s forehead during the pregame.
Washinton Commanders 10 | Dallas Cowboys 45
You had me down for the Cowboys winning 33-11 (-11 DAL & Under 48.5), so I was 1-3 after the Cowboys game. 2nd-year 5th round CB DaRon Bland set an NFL record with Pick-6s with his 5th of the season.
San Francisco 49ers 31 | Seattle Seahawks 13
This was supposed to be 23-15 Niners (-6.5 SF & Under 43), so overall a 2-4 start to Week 12. My aunt Meg questioned, “Why are they wearing that color jersey?” Plus my grandparents were not a fan of them either. The Seahawks were running around looking like highlighters out there.
Black Friday Football
I don’t know if it’s the NFL or just the Jets trying to make this inaugural Black Friday Football game a big deal, but honestly, who gives a rat’s ass. Why they would pick this “inaugural” game to be played at MetLife on Black Friday when the American Dream Mall will be swarmed with crazed Black Friday goers just a half-mile away is also asinine. That traffic is going to be horrendous. Okay, now that we got that out of the way, the Miami Dolphins, who are totally not frauds and should pay Tua top dollar, are coming off a nice home win down in Miami. Their star offseason acquisition, CB Jalen Ramsey, had 2 INTs off and their star WR Tyreek Hill went off for 10 catches, 146 yards with a TD. Hill is having an insane season leading the NFL at the expense of Jaylen Waddle, who has only had 1 game of 90+ yards this season. Waddle turns 25 years old on Saturday and one has to wonder just how long he will want to play Robin to Hill’s Batman. The New York Jets have officially benched QB Zach Wilson and will start Tim Boyle. I really don’t know much about Tim Boyle but I do have an inside scoop from Chargers Fan Insider that Boyle over the offseason DM’d a woman of a friend of his. “She is kinda hot,” said Chargers Fan Insider. There you have it, Tim Boyle may have a bit of dog in him. As for the Jets’ chances on this all-encompassing inaugural Black Friday Football game, I’ll take the Jets’ defense and 6 field goals in an upset win as 10-point Home Dogs.
Prediction: 18-17 NYJ (+10 NYJ & Under 40)
1 PM Slate
Tampa Bay Bucs’ RB Rachaad White has been on a fantasy football tear of late. Speaking of tears, his juke on 49ers’ Talanoa Hufanga tore the All-Pro Safety’s ACL. White has done a lot of his damage in the passing game as he has averaged 45 rushing yards to go with 35 receiving yards per game. Coming out of college at ASU, White caught 43 passes for 456 yards the year prior toward pro ball, so his receiving skills have always been a big part of his game. The Colts made headlines this week when they released LB Darius Shaq Leonard. The 3-time All-Pro is just 2 years removed from being voted on as the #18th best player in the sport by his peers. Indianapolis took Leonard with their 2nd-round pick in the ‘18 NFL Draft and the move immediately paid dividends as the linebacker nicknamed “Maniac” won the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Last year, Leonard missed the majority of the season due to injury and the Colts also overhauled their coaching staff. This move shouldn’t be that much of a shocker considering the LB was losing snaps of 3rd Down and was essentially a highly priced 2-down linebacker. Due to his large contract for a linebacker, Leonard went unclaimed around the league and now gets to sign a 1-year deal with whichever contender wants him. I don’t want to cast aspersions but I’m sure getting the highly-paid player, who is losing snaps, out of the building will be one less distraction for the Colts.
Prediction: 12-8 IND (-2.5 IND & Under 43.5)
The New York Giants will always hold a special place in the Grinch Evil Hoodie’s heart. After Bill Belichick graduated from Wesleyan University, he took a $25 per week gig to be an assistant to the then Baltimore Colts’ head coach Ted Marchibroda in 1975. After his year in Baltimore, Belichick went to Detroit and coached special teams for a couple of years before going to Denver where he finally got to start assisting on defensive schemes. In 1979, the New York Giants hired Belichick to be a defensive assistant and his role would grow from linebackers coach to eventually Bill Parcell’s defensive coordinator. Now the Patriots have a QB controversy over who to start - a pervert in Mediocre Jones or some guy named Bailey Zappe. The Giants are coming off a nice victory in Washington where Tommy D threw for a new career-high 3 passing TDs. New England is 31st in the NFL in points per game with 14.1 and the only team they score more points than is the New York Football Giants who have averaged an NFL-worst 13.5 points per game. Man, remember when these two franchises were competing with one another for Super Bowls?
Prediction: 5-0 NE (-3.5 NE & Under 33.5)
The Pittsburgh Steelers announced this week that had fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who is not even Canadian. Canada’s firing is likely due to the regression of 2nd year QB Kenny Pickett. Steelers’ head coach, Mike Tomlin said, “Man, I’m focused on this week in terms of the development of Kenny Pickett. We’re not urinating on the fire, man. We are getting ready to play a football game and win this week. That is the only agenda here. It’s not big picture and 2024 and all of that. This organization is not wired like that.” Gotta love a good Tomlin quote. Kenny Pickett might just kinda stink, but lucky for the Steelers, they will be facing the Joe Burrow-less Bengals. Backup QB Jake Browning will now be Cincinnati’s QB1 for the remainder of the season after it was announced that Burrow tore a ligament in his throwing wrist. Browning has been in the NFL since ‘19 but has spent nearly his entire career on practice squads of the Vikings and Bengals. The former Washington Husky alum was at one point considered a top NFL prospect in college after his sophomore season of ‘16 where he threw 43 TD passes. While the rest of his collegiate career wasn’t as pretty, Browning holds the Washington Huskies’ all-time passing yards record so there may be something there. That said, I’m predicting this to be an old-school defense-first AFC North rock fight and I’ll take the Steelers.
Prediction: 9-6 PIT (-1 PIT & Under 34.5)
This week’s only rookie QB matchup features Bryce Young and Will Levis. That is, if Levis is good to go, he is currently questionable, he’s got a foot. This time last year, both of these young QBs were dominating College Football and both are now struggling in their first go in the pros. The Panthers rookie is a week removed from a 123-yard pass performance while the Titans saw their rookie throw for 158 yards, 43 yards of which came on a trick play while they were down 27-0. This game is going to be boring. I might already be done with both of these QBs. Let’s move on to the next game.
Prediction: 7-3 TEN (-3.5 TEN & Under 37)
According to PFF, Jacksonville Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence is the best deep ball passer in the NFL. A deep ball pass is considered anything pass that goes 20+ yards in the air. Lawrence is 20 for 39 on those attempts for 539 yards and 6 TDs with only 1 INT. This grades out as 97.7 PFF Grade and 125.8 QB Rate. (Source: @DanDGriffis) The Texans’ rookie QB CJ Stroud had a rough day in a victory last Sunday where he threw 3 INTs. Stroud’s response was, “Steph Curry don’t ever stop shooting… Imma keep letting em fly.” Last week was an important win for Houston as the team was able to rally behind their young despite his rough play. Their other rookie, Will Anderson, picked up his 3rd sack of the year. Among rookie pass rushers, Anderson is 1st in total pressures with 38, 1st in QB hits with 10, and 1st in QB hurries with 25. These are underlying stats besides sacks that show that CJ Stroud wasn’t the only homerun that Houston hit during their draft night of ‘23.
Prediction: 28-27 HOU (+1.5 HOU & Over 48.5)
This NFC South matchup features the 1st place Saints at 5-5 traveling to Atlanta to take on the 2nd place Falcons who are 4-6. The last time the Saints played, QB Derek Carr was forced out with a concussion so we got to see a bit of Jameis Winston. After their bye week, Carr has since cleared concussion protocol and is expected to start. Carr will be without one of his top targets in WR Michael Thomas, who was placed on IR. Not only is Thomas dealing with a knee, but the 8-year pro was also charged with battery after he allegedly threw a brick at a truck driver. Sounds like an asshole. As for the Falcons, they failed to score 30 points in Week 10 so I was going to call for the eating of the rich (Arthur Smith) BUT Bijan Robinson did get 95 rushing yards and a score so Smith lives to see another day. We’re going with the Saints here because Arthur Smith was given a bye week and I’m sure he spent it trying to reinvent the wheel.
Prediction: 21-19 NO (-1 NO & Under 42)
4 PM Slate
After their big win over Seattle, the LA Rams’ season isn’t dead just yet. This week Rams OC Mike LaFleur said, "As long as number nine's in the fight, you've got a shot." This is true as Matthew Stafford is only 1 of 5 current healthy QBs playing in the NFL right now to have made a Super Bowl. Sadly for Stafford, both of his top WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are nicked up with injuries as both are questionable for Sunday. Arizona’s WR1 Hollywood Brown has only caught 3 passes for 46 yards in 2 games with QB Kyler Murray back under center. This caused a bit of a stir because Hollywood is a free agent at the end of the season and wants to get paid. Brown has told the media “I want to be in Arizona. The feel from it is they want me here, too.” Hollywood and Murray played with each other at Oklahoma so technically K1 already helped Brown get paid once. Arizona has one of the worst rosters in football but has been pesky all season, I think they unofficially end LA’s season this weekend.
Prediction: 20-20 TIE (+1 ARI & Under 44.5)
Browns rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson earned his 1st NFL win over the Steelers. DTR led Cleveland on a game-winning 4th Quarter drive inside 2 minutes. He may not have had to do so if he got a bit more help from his TE David Njoku, who had 4 rough drops. Njoku personally called to apologize to the rookie for his mishaps. Classy move. Broncos QB Russell Wilson also had a 4th Quarter comeback last weekend on Sunday Night Football. The Danger Russ Mr. Unlimited found WR Courtland Sutton in the endzone with 1:03 left in the game. This was Wilson’s fourth 4th Quarter game-winning drive of the season and 2nd in a row after beating the Bills on Monday Night Football as time expired. Denver is now on a 4 game-winning streak, tied with the Eagles for the longest in the NFL. Since Week 6 in Arrowhead, Denver’s defense is averaging only 17.4 points per game and has taken the ball away from their opponents 14 times, which ranks #2 in the NFL for both stats during this stretch. While the Broncos at home here against a rookie QB would seem to make sense, I’m going Browns as Njoku gets redemption.
Prediction: 13-10 CLE (+2.5 CLE & Under 35.5)
The Big Bad Buffalo Bills fired their offensive coordinator and then scored 32 points against one of the NFL’s top defenses. After one of their scores, QB Josh Allen ran back to his sideline screaming “I feel like I’m f****** back.” Now this week we’ll see just how back he really is as they don’t face Zach Wilson.Allen has now thrown at least 1 INT in 7 straight games. WR Stefan Diggs has now gone 2 straight games where he was held under 35 receiving yards and without a TD, so if the Bills don’t get off to a hot start, expect to see a mini Diggs meltdown. The Philadelphia Eagles won an emotional Super Bowl Rematch on Monday Night Football. For the 2nd time in 3 weeks, WR DeVonta Smith ended up with 99 receiving yards in a game. Smith jokingly admitted to reporters he was bothered by this, “Yeah, it does. Second time. Can’t keep happening. I’d rather finish with 98 than 99.” He was so close to his 41-yard catch last week that got Philly to the 1-yard line and set them up for their game-winning score. Had Smith scored there, he would’ve had a TD in 3 straight games, which is something the 3rd year WR hasn’t done since his Heisman season at ‘Bama. I’m rooting for the Eagles in this one.
Prediction: 29-25 PHI (-3.5 PHI & Over 47.5)
Attention @FellowSwifties, this week while on her Eras Tour, Taylor Swift was seen breathing heavily thanks in part to the extreme temperatures down in South America during this time of the year. What was Travis Kelce doing? Fumbling the football on Monday Night, talking to the Wall Street Journal about their relationship, and now guess what? He’s going on a guys’ trip to Las Vegas. I’m concerned. I’m also concerned with the Chiefs offense as QB Patrick Mahomes’ offensive weapons lead the NFL in dropped passes with 26. A whopping 21% of Mahomes’ incompletions this season are due to a Chief player simply dropping the football. Thus far the NFL league average in scoring this season is 21.7 per game and Kansas City has only scored over 22 points 4 times this year. I’m sure Andy Reid will figure it out when the games really start to count, but it’s just something to Note. Despite Raiders’ rookie QB Aiden O’Connell throwing 3 INTs, head coach Antonio Pierce told the media, “We didn’t lose the game because of Aidan [O’Connell] let’s get that straight. But he does need to take better care of the ball, that’s the quarterback’s job.” A real shocker that AP is defending AOC. Despite Kelce’s lack of concern for Taylor’s health, I have Kansas City pulling this one out in Vegas.
Prediction: 14-4 KC (-9.5 KC & Under 44)
Prime Time
Sunday Scaries
This week’s Sunday Night Football features the 2nd and 3rd highest-paid QBs in the NFL. Lamar Jackson has the Ravens in 1st place at 8-3, the only team in the AFC with 8 wins. While the former ‘19 MVP has been doing his thing on the offensive side of the ball, defensively the Ravens are led by a lesser-known star in DT Justin Madubuike. The DT is in year 4 of the NFL and is in the midst of a breakout season. Madubuike currently has 9.5 sacks and is a half sack away from becoming the 1st Raven to notch double-digit sacks since Terrell Suggs did so in ‘17. Not only has Madubuike been getting to the QB, but he’s been pressuring them too with 36 on the season. In his 1st 3 seasons combined Madubuike had 8.5 sacks and 54 pressures, so expect SNF crew to give the big guy some love. The Chargers just keep doing Chargers things like losing 2 straight games in their own backbreaking ways. Last week QB Justin Herbert ran for 73 yards, the 2nd most he’s ever had in an NFL game and the most since his 90-yard performance in Week 11 of ‘21. San Diego will be without their star pass rusher Joey Bosa as he is again headed to the IR with a foot sprain. Bosa is in his 8th NFL season and after this injury will have missed over 2 full seasons worth of games due to injury, he has played in 93 games and missed 31. Without Bosa, you have to wonder how they plan on improving upon giving up the most passing yards per game in the NFL. Entering Week 11, the Chargers’ opponents - the Packers - had gone 27 straight games without throwing for 300 yards and then they put up 322 on SD. Despite their lackluster defense, San Diego’s head coach Brandon Staley refuses to give up his playcalling duties, “You can stop asking that question” he told the San Diego press fervently. Baltimore & the over it is.
Prediction: 31-26 BAL (-4.5 BAL & Over 47)
Moody Monday
I found this cool 1993 Monday Night Football poster featuring the Vikings and Bears on the World Wide Web. What the hell is “Bud Dry”? Da Bears QB1 Justin Fields returned to the starting lineup and rushed for a season-high 104 yards. Fields rushed for 1,143 yards in ‘22, the 2nd most ever for a QB, but thus far this season has averaged only 39.5 yards per game prior to his Week 11. Could this be the beginning of him using his legs more? The Vikings will be without Justin Jefferson for the 6th game in a row. Jefferson has been dealing with a hamstring and this week he Tweeted out, “My health is wayyyy more important than you winning your fantasy games. It doesn’t matter how many times y’all flood my DMs talking about me selling your team. I DONT CARE,” much to the dismay of all his fantasy football governors. Minnesota has got to be kicking themselves after last Sunday night where if they don’t turn the ball over 3 times they win 6 in a row. They’ll get back on track this Monday.