Dreams and Nightmares | Week 1 | YouTube Rabbithole
Alright @YouTheReader,
I’ll keep the music intro short. Dreams and Nightmares by Meek Mill came out in ‘12. I heard this last winter for the first time in a while and thought the intro would be kinda hard. Plus tomorrow I’m going cupcake soft so needed to put up a front on Friday.
Week 1 of the NFL, yes sir.
I really enjoy writing Week to Week Notes about a wide range of things, but don’t get me wrong I love writing about football. It’s how Week to Week Notes started. I wouldn’t call Week to Week Notes anywhere close to one of the harder grinds people do every day, but like any side hustle, it has its ups and downs.
Bit of a double entendre. While Meek Mill was locked up in jail he was praying for time to get out so that he could let some things off his chest. In the 19th and 20th centuries, many Irish immigrants settled in the US and became policemen. Therefore, a paddy wagon may have gotten its name either from Irish police officers driving the car or because many Irish were getting arrested in those times. (Source: NLOMF)
I barely get enough sleep to have dreams or nightmares, but I guess that’s what happens when you get to do something that consumes you. I feel lucky that I get to do this. I never know how somebody on the other end of this reading is feeling. They could be having shitty day, week, or month, and maybe they click the link for a laugh, or they learn something (hell I’ve learned a lot from this), or they can relate to whatever the hell I’m rambling on about here. The rest of this song Meek Mill raps about people hating on him, cars, money, and chains, which honestly, I don’t care about, but there was no better hype rap song than Dreams and Nightmares when this came out.
On to Week 1!!!!
Warped Logic - Week 1, ‘23
Thursday Nighter
Detroit Lions 21 @ Kansas City Chiefs 20
0 for 2 start to the season. What an absolute NIGHTMARE start…
1 PM Slate
Texans Rookie QB, CJ Stroud, is making his NFL debut and it’s pretty cool that he gets to matchup against Lamar Jackson. Stroud is a big fan of Jackson and admitted this week to watching him on YouTube since he was in the 7th grade. Since ‘11, Rookie QBs drafted in the top 5 are 4-6-1 in their NFL debuts. (Source: @Djbienaime) For the Ravens, they get to unveil their revamped passing game with their new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, calling plays. The Lamar Jackson Ravens have always been run-first previously under Greg Roman so this could be a much different look to an offense that now headlines names like Odell Beckham Jr. while featuring a burner in rookie WR Zay Flowers. My Warped Logic sports brain will always think of the Ravens as a defense-first low-scoring team so I’m taking the under.
Prediction: 23-7 BAL (-10 BAL & Under 44)
The Tampa Bay Bucs have until Saturday to get a deal done with their stud WR Mike Evans or else he’s assured them he will be wearing different colors in ‘24. Evans is Mr. 1K as he has put up at least 1,000 yards receiving for 9 straight seasons to start his NFL career. Why wouldn’t the Bucs want to keep him? Well he is entering year 10 and the Bucs are in a state of transition starting QB Baker Mayfield will be making his debut with his 4th NFL franchise. Minnesota on the other hand has their own star WR looking to get paid and he hopes to continue catching passing from his QB Kirk Cousins whom the Vikings can’t guarantee they are keeping around. Sorry for the boring contract talk. The Vikings are a win now and the Bucs swapped Tom Brady for the former star Progressive commercials guy who won the Heisman.
Prediction: 28-10 MIN (-6 MIN & Under 45.45)
After spending a weekend in Jacksonville, I can tell the vibes are very high on the Jags. I can now say that I’ve had a few pints of Guinness where Trevor “Sunshine” Lawrence has frequented, such as Pete’s Bar (Est. 1933). Jacksonville, Florida is Gator vs. Seminole country. Crossover Gator and Jags fan’s inside scoop on former Florida QB Anthony Richardson, who is making his NFL Debut is that “He can’t play a lick.” The Rookie QB will be the 3rd youngest starting QB in NFL history. Week 1 always has some weird upsets and I have an inkling that the vibes are too high for the Jags, somehow the Jonathan Taylor-less Colts pull this one out.
Prediction: 16-14 IND (+5 IND & Under 45.5)
There are a ton of debuts this weekend. Cardinals Jonathan Gannon will be head coaching his first NFL game. He was formerly the defensive coordinator for last year’s Philadelphia Eagles. This offseason Gannon went viral for how he said “shoo, shoo, shoo, shoo, shoo, shots explosions” when greeting Rondale Moore as the Cardinals’ WR stared blankly back at him *thinking* “What in the f***?” The Washington Commies have a new opening day starting QB for the 7th time in 7 years since they let Kirk Cousins go. Sam Howell will be under center and head coach Ron Rivera is excited. Apparently, the former Bear linebacker has been obsessed with Howell’s talent and it is all he has been talking about with his wife over the offseason. “All we f---ing talked about was the quarterback, I kept saying, f--k, if I would have known this, I would have played him sooner."
Prediction: 30-0 WASH (-7 WASH & Under 38)
Niners stud pass rusher, Nick Bosa, just got back on the practice field right after signing his brand new contract making him the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history. San Francisco now has the highest-paid defender, RB (McCaffrey), FB (Juszcyk), 3rd highest paid TE (Kittle), LT (Williams), LB (Warner), 6th highest-paid DT (Hargrave), 7th highest-paid WR (Deebo) and they can pay for all this because they have the cheapest QB in Brock Purdy. The Steelers also have a 2nd year QB in Kenny Pickett who was just named captain of their offense. This offseason, fans realized Pickett looks a bit like Morgan Wallen and they’ve been in the same room… Sorry, I’m trying to build storylines for later on in the season. How about the fact that the Steelers as home underdogs are 16-4-3 against the spread in the Mike Tomlin era? Next.
Prediction: 25-22 PIT (+2 PIT & Over 41.5)
I’m probably biased and no offense if this is one of your teams, but this game to me is a total snooze fest. Thank goodness they didn’t stick this one on a Thursday Nighter. The Titans are going to run the ball into the ground with King Henry over, and over, and over, and over, again, while QB Derek Carr winces in frustration a few times for not being on the same page as his WRs while making his New Orleans Saints debut.
Prediction: 19-15 TEN (+3 TEN & Unver 41)
The Browns and Bengals rivalry is the Battle of Ohio. The Browns were founded in 1946 by Paul Brown, whom they were named after and coached by. Paul Brown could only afford to own an NFL team so they would eventually be sold to Art Modell, the grandson of the founder of Modell’s Sporting Goods. Modell fired Brown in 1963 and Paul Brown was pissed so he founded the Bengals of the AFL in the same state. While Nick Bosa was busy becoming the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history, Joey B Cool Burrow just became the highest-paid player in NFL history. I’m sure the NFL prefers Burrow getting this contract much more than when the Browns gave Deshaun Watson the most guaranteed money after his scandals last year. This will be the 100th meeting between the two Ohio teams and the Bengals currently hold a 52-47 advantage.
Prediction: 24-20 CIN (-2.5 CIN & Under 48)
The #1 Overall pick from the ‘23 NFL Draft, Bryce Young, will make his debut in Atlanta. They have a whole contract ordeal with their star defensive pass rusher, Brian Burns. The two sides are expected to reach a deal at some point before the weekend and Burns has confirmed that he will be playing. In 4 seasons, Burns has sacked the QB 38 times, and last year he had a career-high of 12.5 sacks. The Dirty Birds will have an exciting core group of young offensive players making their NFL opening day together. Their star rookie RB, Bijan Robinson, will make his NFL debut, and their pass-catching freaks TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London will have a new opening-day QB in Desmon Ridder. As a die-hard Kyle Pitts fantasy football defender, this has to be his year, no? I know in the NFL you’re supposed to build from inside to out, but I respect their approach of taking skill position guys high in the draft and giving the keys of the franchise to a 2nd year QB who they took in the 3rd Round. Will it work? Probably not, but Week to Week Notes is on the train if it does.
Prediction: 27-23 ATL (-3.5 ATL & Over 39.5)
4 PM Slate
Bill Belichick and his long-time girlfriend Linda Holliday broke up. The Daily Mail has reported that many of the Pats executives are “on edge” over the situation. 1) What does Linda know? 2) The Jets should send Zach Wilson her way. Wilson becoming Alex Moran while Rodgers is QB1 would be awesome. Sorry for the Jets talk, this is a Pats-Eagles preview. The Eagles had to replace their two coordinators because they got promoted to head coaching jobs around the league. The Pats on the other hand brought back a familiar face in Bill O’Brien to call the plays on offense because their failed rocket science coach failed at becoming an OC last season. First Tom Brady last year, now Bill. Sheesh, the Boston boys are down badly. I think we all know those two need each other, (but maybe Brady less than Bill.) Do you think I want to report on stuff like this? Absolutely not! That said, @YouTheReaders need to know if Bill is giving football his full undivided attention.
Prediction: 33-9 PHI (-4 PHI & Under 45)
Just think, this time last year Geno “They Wrote Me Off But I Ain’t Write Back Though” Smith was just Geno Smith. Wild what a difference a year can make. Honestly, though, I’m very interested in seeing Smith’s career trajectory from here on out because it is very unique. From ‘13 to ‘21, Smith played in 45 games and threw 34 TDs with 37 INTs. Last year alone, Smith threw for 30 TDs and cut his INTs to 11. For the Rams, Matthew Stafford is back but will be without his star WR Cooper Kupp for at least a couple of games as he tries to figure out what is going on with his hamstrings. Rams are going to be hamstrung with out Kupp. Taking Seattle at home.
Prediction: 21-12 SEA (-5.5 SEA & Under 46)
I’ll cut to the chase here. If the Chicago Bears can’t beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, then Chicago should consider banning cheese from Illinois. If Jordan Love is able to lead the Pack to their 9th straight win over Da Bears, there needs to be repercussions. I’m a bit surprised the NFL didn’t wait for a Bears and Packers game for primetime but this is on at the 4 o’clocks so I’m sure many will be tuning in. Justin Fields has got to find a way to beat the Pack. In 4 games against them, he has thrown 6 INTs to just 3 passing TDs.
Prediction: 20-17 CHI (-1 CHI & Under 42)
The Raiders enter their Jimmy G era as Josh McDaniels appears to have got the guy he wanted under center to replace Tom Brady in New England. I give it until Week 3 before Davante Adams wants out of Las Vegas. On the Denver side of things, Sean Payton has been quite the offseason quote in his return to coaching on the sidelines. This one I heard according to ESPN about Russell Wilson made me laugh though. Apparently, Payton has told Wilson to quit the whole “Russell Inc.” bit. He told him, "Will you f---ing stop kissing all the babies? You're not running for public office." I’d love to have been a fly on the wall to hear Mr. Unlimited’s response. Payton does come from the Big Tuna Bill Parcells coaching tree so I guess this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise but he really seems to have shown more personality than when he had Drew Brees slinging the rock. Anyway, I think Wilson slightly cooks the Raiders, medium rare.
Prediction: 23-16 DEN (-3.5 DEN & Under 44)
Man, forget being a fly on the wall between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson’s conversations, I can only imagine the text conversations that will be had between Phins Fan Insider and Chargers Fan Insider this weekend. The main storyline the mainstream media complex will feed you is how the Dolphins passed on Justin Herbert with the 5th pick in the COVID NFL Draft to select Tua. Of course, Week to Week Notes will promulgate what the mainstream media complex is feeding you and then diverge to how nobody is talking about how these two teams have shared quite a few ‘00s pass catchers such as Wes Welker, David Boston, Chris Chambers, Greg Camarillo, and who could forget Randy McMichael. Ha..ha..okay… Both of these teams are littered with star talent on both sides of the ball, but their bread & butter would lean toward offense over defense. It is no surprise that the 51-point spread is the highest over-under of the weekend. Some fun rookie talent will be making their debuts as depth role pieces to start their careers in Phins RB Devon Achane and Bolts WR Quentin Johnston, I would expect both players to get more involved in their offenses the deeper into the season we get. In LA, Bolt Up.
Prediction: 34-30 LAC (-3 LAC & Over 51)
Prime Time
Sunday Scaries
After watching football from 1 pm to 7 pm this Sunday, I am going to be so excited to sit down and watch a bit of Cowboys vs. Giants. Hopefully, I’m not drowsy by the time Carrie Underwood is performing and wake up in a fit of panic that I have a paper due tomorrow. Underwood is confirmed locked in for her 11th consecutive season of the SNF Theme, I want it Noted I was also a big fan of Faith Hill.
The Giants and Cowboys haven’t faced off to open an NFL season since ‘19. From ‘12 to ‘17 these two teams faced off every year except once, so no, you’re right, it did feel like this is an annual thing. The Cowboys now have a new OC in Brian Schottenheimer, who used to coach Mark Sanchez with the Jets. Lucky for Cowboys fans, Dak is supposedly going to be calling most of the plays. The Dallas defense was stout in ‘22, they held Danny Dimes and the G-Men to just 36 points in their 2 meetings last year. If you were to take coaching out of the game and this game was played purely on player talent, the Cowboys would probably smoke the Giants once again. There are X’s and O’s involved though and so I think giving the G-Men head coach and ‘22 NFL Coach of the Year, Brian Daboll, a whole offseason to game plan for the Cowboys should help them squeak this one out at home.
Prediction: 23-21 NYG (+3.5 NYG & Under 46)
Moody Monday
This Monday Night Football Game will be hosted by the New York Jets on the 22nd anniversary of 9/11. Not that sports mean much compared to what happened on that day, but the ‘01 Jets handled the aftermath of the situation properly. The team, led by their starting QB and Long Island native, Vinny Testeverde, decided they would forfeit their road game the following week. Curtis Martin told ESPN, "Vinny Testaverde stood up the next day, on a Wednesday, in our team meeting, and said, 'Guys, I love you all, but I'm from New York and I've had people die in the World Trade Center, so I won't be on that trip to Oakland with you guys.’ We, as a team, decided that if he wasn't playing, we weren't playing.” Thankfully the NFL decided to postpone the entire Week 2 of ‘01 slate in large part to the Jets players’ movement. This doesn’t have much to do with this upcoming Monday, but I figure it’s a good story beyond sports.
If you’re new here, I won’t even try to spin a reasoning behind my Week 1 pick here. I’ll always take the Jets on Week to Week Notes. I haven’t done a full 16-game slate since Week 18 last year, so I’m a bit rusty but give me to Week 2 after a week of studying game film I’ll try to be better next time!