Today’s tune for this Wild Card Weekend of ‘24 is Lover by Taylor Swift. This tune falls in at #24 on Week to Week Notes’ Taylor Top 25 Songs Power Rankings. @Fellas, don’t worry about which version you listen to, this came out in ‘19, and she owns full rights to it. @FellowSwifties it’s been so long since ‘tis the damn season, I hope you had a Happy Hanukkah, a wonderful Christmas, and a fun New Year’s Eve!
Ahh, thank goodness! Now what about my Christmas tree? I gotta get that out this weekend, right?
(That poor bastard was only lit up 3 times and has been dead for a month. An absolute fire hazard at this point.)
OMG Taylor, stop, you’re going to make me blush!
Some of the readers I’ve only met for like 20 seconds and for others I’ve known for over 20 years, that’s pretty cool.
I’ll get serious for a second… In her interview on NPR’s Tiny Desk, Swift said "Writing songs is strange because it never happens the same way, but sometimes it happens in this weird haunting that you can’t really explain…like you don’t know where these ideas came from and you feel like you didn’t work at all to write it and that’s like the best kind of song…and then there are most days where you show up and the idea doesn’t and that’s where you kind of have to know the craft of it. You have to scrounge your brain for something to write because you’re not always going to be inspired and that’s okay.” (Quote is at the 6:30 mark)
She explains that the guitar string scar line is one of her favorites, stating, “Songwriting is just really a cathartic, therapeutic thing to me, so there are a lot of things I've written about in life that are the harder things I've had to go through. So I took that as a metaphor for the times I was learning to play guitar. I'd play until my fingers bled when I was a kid, and I still have those marks from that; those times I'd be changing a string and it'd pop, and I still have those scars from that." (Quote is at 7:45 mark)
Today’s inspiration, sorry, today’s inspo came from the Week to Week Notes calendar of ‘24 that my mother gifted me for Christmas.
I won’t go any further with this today…I took the Chiefs and we can’t be throwing Travis off his game.
Let’s talk ball…
Wild Card Round ‘24
When the Cleveland Browns entered the ‘23 regular season there was a ton of talk about what sort of philosophy their offense should run with Deshaun Watson behind center and Nick Chubb at tailback. All that talk turned to jibberish once Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 2 and Watson was done by Week 10. The Browns have won 4 straight games where Joe Flacco has started for them at QB. In those 4 games, Flacco has thrown for at least 309 passing yards, which is absurd because he was signed off his couch. In his 16-year career in the NFL, Flacco had never thrown 300+ passing yards in more than 2 games in a row prior. Flacco’s top target, WR Amari Cooper, became the 1st Browns WR to record 1,000 or more receiving yards in back-to-back seasons.
Defensively, Cleveland is led by DE Myles Garrett and his 14 sacks. Garrett has been dealing with a shoulder injury for well over a month and has only picked up 1 sack in his last 5 games. 2 other names more under the radar on Cleveland’s defense are LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and CB Martin Emerson Jr. JOK led the team in tackles and his 20 tackles for loss is good 4th in the NFL. Emerson Jr. is the least-known CB of their excellent trio that he makes up with Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome. He leads Cleveland with 4 INTs and 14 pass deflections. Ward injured his knee at practice this week, so expect an increase role for Emerson Jr. The Browns were 8-1 at home and 3-5 on the road.
The Houston Texans had a fun season that needs to be headlined by the Offensive Rookie of the Year in CJ Stroud. The former Buckeye QB and #2 overall pick was a major reason this team went from worst to first in the AFC South. Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards are the 3rd most all-time by a rookie. What makes that stat even more impressive is that Stroud is 2nd all-time in the least interceptions thrown by a QB in their rookie season with a minimum of 300 attempts as his 5 INTs are only 1 more than Dak Prescott’s ‘16 rookie campaign. Houston relies heavily on Stroud’s arm as their running game is semi-ineffective being the 10th worst in the NFL.
Houston lost to the Browns in Week 16, giving up 36 points to Joe Flacco and allowing Amari Cooper to set a Browns record of 265 receiving yards in a game. The Texans started Davis Mills at QB because Stroud was out with a concussion. We all know how I feel about people with the first name Davis, they just can’t be trusted, so I think we should throw that game out the window. The Texans were also without their lead sack-getters Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks) and Will Anderson (7 sacks) were out with injuries when Houston played the Browns. Greenard and Anderson are back to practice this week so assuming they both can go should be gamechanging. To add to this, CB Derek Stingley, the reigning AFC Defensive Player of December/January, should be shadowing Cooper. Despite Cleveland’s grit, I’ll back the Texans as home underdogs.
Prediction: 14-13 HOU (+2.5 HOU & Under 43.5)
This game is projected to be one of the coldest games in NFL history with temperatures around 0°F (or -18°C) and windchills around -30°F. Per John Murges, the Dolphins of Miami in their past 10 games where the kickoff temperature was 40 degrees or below have gone 0-10, while losing those 10 games by an average of 17 points. Miami finished their season on a 2 game losing streak to the Ravens and Bills, they now face the Chiefs. QB Tua Tagovailoa had a great season this year but finished with the past two games rather pedestrian, throwing 3 TDs to 4 INTs and for an average of 205 passing yards. One thing they do have going for them is that despite the frigid weather, WR Tyreek Hill should still be screaming fast. Miami’s 2 other complementary stars, WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert, have suffered no setbacks, and head coach Mike McDaniel said he’s “optimistic” they both will play.
On defense, the Dolphins have had awful injury luck of late. It all started when pass rusher Jaylen Phillips went down with an Achilles on Black Friday against the Jets. In Week 17, Miami lost their other pass rush stud Bradley Chubb in what was already a game that was decided. Then there was last Sunday Night against the Bills where they lost both their versatile LBs Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker. To combat these losses, the Dolphins have signed a trio of veterans DE Justin Houston, LB Bruce Irvin, and DE Malik Reed. This season, Houston played 7 games for Carolina, Irving played 2 games for Detroit, and Reed played 4 games for Vegas. Are these a bit of desperation moves? For sure, but what else are they supposed to do? If anything it’ll be interesting to see if Houston, who once had a 22-sack season with KC, can get to Mahomes.
I can’t believe Selena Gomez would spill the tea to Taylor about me like that. One thing that the Miami Dolphins and their 6th best in the league rushing attack has going for them is that the KC Chiefs defense allows 4.5 yards per carry, the 7th worst rate in the NFL. That said, this is the best Kansas City defense that Patrick Mahomes has ever played with. They have only given up 17.3 points per game this year, the 2nd best in the NFL. Their passing defense only allows 176.5 yards per game as they are led by CB L'Jarius Sneed. According to Next Gen Stats, Sneed did not allow a single touchdown across 90 targets as the nearest defender this season, 3rd-most among any player since ‘16. The only WR to have more than 40 yards receiving on him this season was Davane Adams. That’s pretty, pretty, good. The Chiefs also have 2 stud pass rushers in DT Chris Jones and DE George Karlaftis, who each had 10.5 sacks.
Now to the Chiefs offense…For the first time in Patrick Mahomes career, he made 15 or more starts and didn’t throw for 37 or more TDs. Mahomes ended up with 27 TDs and 14 INTs, which was also the first time his TD-to-INT rate was below 2. Not to pile on, but his 7 yards per pass attempt was also a career low. In the NFL, it is hard to maintain excellence, and Mahomes might have had the best start to an NFL career, so while these criticisms are a bit outlandish, his standard is so high. Another Chief with the highest of standards is TE Travis Kelce, who for the first time since ‘15 didn’t hit the 1,000-yard mark for receiving yards in a season. One thing that the Chiefs do have going for them is former Rutgers RB Isiah Pacheco. He became the first Chiefs RB since ‘17 to have more than 900 rushing yards in a season. When the Chiefs beat the Dolphins in Week 9 at Frankfurt, Mahomes and Kelce only connected 3 times for 14 yards as Pacheco led the team with 66 rushing yards. If the Chiefs are going to win this year, it’s probably going to have to be ugly, but I’ll take them in the cold.
Prediction: 28-24 KC (-3.5 KC & Over 44)
Of all 14 teams to make the NFL playoffs this season, the 10-7 Pittsburgh Steelers are the only team to have allowed more points than they have scored, a -20 point differential. Now that they made the dance, you can throw that stat out because it was largely impacted by 2 blowout losses to the Niners and Texans. In games decided by a touchdown or less, the Steelers were 9-2 this season. Their only win where they won by double figures was against Cincinnati in Week 16, which got the team off the mat of a 3-game losing streak and propelled them on the current 3-game winning streak they’re on now. QB Mason Rudolph started the season as 3rd on the depth chart and he is now 3-0 as the starter after taking over for the injured Kenny Picket / inept Mitch Trubisky. Since Rudolph took over, the Pittsburgh passing game has looked pretty solid which in turn has helped out RB Najee Harris. In the last 3 games, Harris has rushed for 104 yards per game. From Weeks 1 to 15, Harris was averaging only 52 yards per game, exactly half.
Unfortunately, the Steelers will be without their best player on Sunday as the NFL leader in sacks, TJ Watt, has been ruled out with a knee. Watt’s 19 sacks this season are the 2nd most he has had in his career. The younger Watt now sits at 96.5 sacks, whereas his older brother finished with 114.5 for his career. Pittsburgh is set to get back their versatile safety, Minkah Fitzpatrick, so that should help a bit. One of the ways the Steelers have gotten to this point is they take the ball away on defense (16 INTs and 11 forced fumbles) and don’t give it up on offense as their +11 turnover differential is tied for 3rd best in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills this season struggled and yet they still managed to go 11-6 while reclaiming the AFC East. I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself or freak Bills fans out, but I think there is something to that. QB Josh Allen’s 18 interceptions were the 2nd most in the NFL, yet he more than made up for it with his 15 rushing TDs to go with his 29 passing. Allen is what he is, an elite talent that can be a bit of a wild card. For the first 11 games of the regular season, the Bills made a consorted effort to limit the number of times Allen used his legs as he rushed only 4.8 times per game. From Week 12 on, Allen became much more of a runner as he averaged 9.7 carries per game. When you pair that with Allen having an RB for the first time in his career rush for over 1,000 yards in James Cook, I think the Bills’ offense should be better built for the winter playoffs.
The Buffalo Bills’ defense was once again elite this season, giving up only 18.3 points per game. Front-lined by DT Ed Oliver and his career-high 9.5 sacks, the Bills were 4th in the NFL in sacks this season with a combined 54. Oliver was not the only Bill to have a breakout season, LB Terrel Benard stepped up to the plate in a big way once Matt Milano went down. Benard, in just his 2nd year in the NFL, led the Bills in tackles with 143, had 6.5 sacks, and 3 INTs. The defense for both of these teams may benefit from the 70% chance of snow that Buffalo is allegedly going to get on Sunday morning. I’ll take the Bills.
Prediction: 23-12 BUF (-10 BUF & Under 35.5)
The Green Packers entered this season with almost zero expectations after they traded away Aaron Rodgers and gave the keys to the franchise to QB Jordan Love. While the Packers got off to a 2-5 start, Love prevailed as they finished 7-3 down the stretch. Green Bay is currently on a 3-game winning streak, not just because of Jordan Love, but the fact that RB Aaron Jones started to look like himself again. In the past 3 weeks, Jones has rushed for at least 111 yards in all 3 games. While Jones has been limited in practice with a knee/finger (odd combination), he’ll be ready by Sunday. The Packers passing game has been all over the place, as 9 different players at one point this season have led the team in receiving yards for a game. The Packers are hopeful to get WR Christian Watson back in the mix as his 15.1 yards per catch led the team and he provides a bit more of a vertical threat than Love’s other options such as Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs.
The Packers defensively were solid this season, only allowing 20.1 points per game. Just this week CB Jaire Alexander rolled his ankle in practice and is now questionable for Sunday. The Packers defensively this season only had 7 interceptions. That ties them for the 22nd lowest in NFL history. In case you were wondering the 49ers in ‘18 only had 2 interceptions in the entire season, how is that even possible? (Source: Stat Muse)
The Cowboys’ offense was the best in football in ‘23 as their 29.9 points per game was league-high. QB Dak Prescott led the NFL in passing TDs with 36 while WR CeeDee Lamb caught 12 TDs, good for 3rd in football. The Dallas offense is predicated on force-feeding Lamb the football and it’s worked as the 24-year-old’s 135 catches are a new team record.
On the Dallas defense, LB Micah Parsons and CB DaRon Bland are the two stars to know. Parsons in 3 seasons has 40.5 sacks and will likely become the 1st linebacker since Lawrence Taylor to be named to the All-Pro team for 3 consecutive seasons to start his career. Bland on the other hand, broke out this season with 9 INTs, 5 of which were Pick-6s. Last season as a rookie, Bland had a healthy 5 picks, but no one could have foreseen this from the 5th Rounder out of Fresno State. Unlike the rest of America, I root for the Cowboys in these situations because I have family who are fans. Therefore, I will not be responsible for mushing Dallas and will choose Green Bay here.
Prediction: 21-20 GB (+7.5 GB & Under 50)
The LA Rams at one point this season were 3-6 and starting Brett Rypien at QB before they rallied off 7 wins in their last 8 games. Their only loss during this stretch came against the Ravens where they lost in Baltimore in OT Week 14. Not only can we play the Rams are the hottest team in football card here, but there is also the Stafford vs Goff trade. Matthew Stafford will play in Detroit, not as a member of the Lions for the 1st time in his career. The Lions took Stafford at #1 overall back in ‘09. Stafford has a 1,100+ yard tailback in Kyren Williams to go with 2 star WRs in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Between those 2, somebody is always open.
Defensively, LA still has Aaron Donald. The 10-year veteran is still elite as he completed yet another season of at least 8 sacks, which makes that 9 for 10. Next to Donald in the Rams’ 4-3 defense is an emerging rookie DT Kobie Turner who beat Donald in sacks this season with 9. Turner ended the season with 3.5 sacks in his final 2 games. Another Ram defender who had a very solid season was S Jordan Fuller. The Old Tappan, New Jersey graduate, led LA’s secondary in tackles with 94, had 3 INTs, and also forced 3 fumbles.
On Detroit’s side, Jared Goff will be facing the team that drafted him #1 overall in ‘16. Goff, after suffering a bit of a slump following the Rams’ loss in the Super Bowl in ‘18, has put together 2 very good seasons with the Lions. By far one of the biggest things to key on with the Lions is TE Sam LaPorta’s status. The rookie TE injured his knee in Week 18 and has not practiced this week. Any time a cart gets involved in an injury this late into the season, you have to think their year is done but head coach Dan Campbell is somewhat hopeful, “It’s not as bad as it looked, but it’s not good news…He’s got an outside shot.” Either way, expect Detroit to lean on the dynamic duo of RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions offense is one of the most balanced in the NFL as they are 2nd in the NFL in passing yards and 5th in the NFL in rushing yards.
On the defense for the Lions, they are led by 2 2nd year players in pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson and safety Kerby Joseph. Hutchinson’s 3 forced fumbles to go with 11.5 sacks are why Detroit took him #2 in ‘22. Kerby Joseph, their 3rd Rounder, looks like a steal as he had 82 tackles, 4 INTs, and 11 pass deflections. The Lions will be hosting a playoff game in Detroit for the 1st time since 1994, so 30 years, jeez. I can’t the Lions in the playoffs, they are the Lions.
Prediction: 27-26 LAR (+3.5 LAR & Over 51.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles have slumped their way into the postseason, losing 5 of their last 6 games. The only reason they are in the playoffs is they started 10-1, which feels like an eternity. QB Jalen Hurts in his last 4 games has thrown at least 1 INT a game that was before his finger injury that put him on the injury report. My gut says Hurts redeems himself and gets this offense back on track.
Defensively, Philly has also lost its way as well. They have given up 20 or more points in each of their last 7 games. Last year the Eagles led the NFL in sacks with 70, this year that number dropped to 43. You can chalk that up to the loss in free agency of Javon Hargrove, plus the regression toward to mean. DE Hassan Reddick has led the team in sacks in back-to-back seasons and hasn’t picked up a sack in the last 4 games. He’s due because before this streak he hasn’t gone more than 2 games without getting to the QB.
After entering Week 18 with rib injuries, QB Baker Mayfield sustained an ankle last weekend. He hasn’t been able to practice all week. Of Baker’s 28 passing TDs, almost half of them (13) went to WR Mike Evans. The last time Evans played the Eagles in the playoffs he had 9 catches for 117 yards and a score in ‘21. The best player on Tampa Bay’s defense is S Antoine Winfield. The star safety had 6 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 3 INTs, and 122 tackles, all of which were career-highs.
There is a very good chance that this game is going to be weird. It’s a Monday Night Playoff game that will feature two injured starting QBs. Tampa Bay is one of the least deserving of the playoff teams to have the home-field advantage because the NFC South was bad. It should be a fun one, I’ll go with Philly. Taylor Swift and Football